DVR Ad-Skipping: Real or Imagined

I've written many times that people who say the Digital Video Recorder will kill the 30-second commercial are either misinformed or financially motivated. For instance, advertisers would like to create the perception that their spots are largely ignored by DVR owners so they can demand lower advertising rates from the networks.

However, the truth is that more ads will be skipped, but not nearly as many as people think.

Why?

Most TV viewers are passive and slaves to routine. The majority of people will continue to watch a show when it's first broadcast, which makes the ad-skipping all but useless.

In addition, even though the DVR makes it easier to fast-forward past a commercial during a recorded show, it's not like they weren't being skipped before. Viewers have used their VCR's Fast Forward button to sail past ads for years. (Not to mention, some viewers have long ignored commercials because they like to skip channels during the break.)

And, finally, advertisers will adjust to the changing environment by creating spots that DVR owners will want to watch. (KFC, for example, recently included a secret code in a 30-second spot that could only be seen by using a recorder's Pause or Slow Motion feature. The secret code could be turned in for a free chicken sandwich.)

So the actual increase in ad-skipping will be small to medium rather than dramatic.

I realize that even a small increase in ad-skipping could hurt the advertising community. And so do the networks. That's why Millward Brown Media Practice yesterday released a study saying that DVR owners are just as likely to recall ads as non-DVR owners.

The study was paid for by the four major broadcast networks. I'm not suggesting the numbers are in error, but you have to consider the source when evaluating a new study.

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