Interactive TV's Big Hope

In this space on Monday, I noted that a new AP-AOL-Pew poll showed that only eight percent of Americans say they have used their cell phones to interact with TV shows.

I commented that the low number would indicate that claims that millions of Americans are voting on shows as American Idol are overblown.

I wrote that it's more likely that Idol's voting totals are dominated by a relatively small number of people, who vote over and over again for their favorite contestants. The majority of the Idol audience just sits there and watches (and relaxes), like TV viewers have done since the beginning of television itself. A few readers e-mailed me to say that the poll failed to measure teens and pre-teens, the so-called future audience of interactive television. They said that today's hyper-interactive young people will become Interactive TV's biggest supporters when they grow older. "The survey missed the significant market of teens and young adults who regularly use instant message, MP3s, cameras, etc. on their phones. While my experience is anecdotal, I can tell you that each month I see hundreds of these transactions on the phones of my three average teens/early 20s. I don't expect that to change as they grow older," one e-mail writer said.

Well, I do expect that to change. It's easier for a teen to be interactive than an adult. Unburdened by demanding jobs, home mortgages and, yes, hyperactive children, teens have more energy and time to devote to interactive features. However, when they get older and become part of what's known as the rat race, their interest and opportunity will diminish.

I agree that today's teens will be more interactive than their parents because they grew up using PCs, Instant Messaging, video games and other interactive devices. But the belief that they will be as interactive as they are now ignores the changes we all go through as we get older.

Consequently, I predict that interest in Interactive TV will rise only slightly when today's teens become tomorrow's adults.