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Swanni's 2006 Predictions!
(Part Two) Click Here to Read Part One
TiVo gets a buyer; TV prices drop even further; and there could be a flurry of HDTV channel launches.
By Phillip Swann

8. Video iPod Downloads to Fall In Second Half of 2006
The new Apple video iPod has been arguably the buzziest new product of 2005. Apple says iPod owners have purchased and downloaded more than two million videos from a lineup which includes ABC's Lost and Desperate Housewives. However, I believe that the initial  interest is driven largely by curiosity, which is typical among early adopters; they love to try new things. As time goes by, video iPod owners will use the player more for music and less for video.

9. But Apple Will Launch a Larger-Screen Video iPod
Influenced by internal research that will show that consumers do not like watching video on a small screen (the iPod has a 2.5-inch screen), Apple will launch a larger-screen video iPod that's intended for use in the home and other indoor settings rather than on the go. The device will be similar to the portable DVR now offered by satcaster EchoStar. In time, Apple will focus more of its video efforts on the larger-screen device, which will have a greater chance of success.

10. DIRECTV Will Launch a Portable DVR
Following rival EchoStar, DIRECTV will launch its own portable Digital Video Recorder in 2006. The device will allow you to download your satellite recordings and play them back on it or a TV with a connecting cable.

11. New HDTV DVD players Will Be the Buzz of the Industry.
High-Def DVD players from Sony and Toshiba are expected early next year. Although prices will be too high to generate serious sales, look for the media to go wild over their introduction. This will spark more interest in High-Definition TV.

12. HDTV Sales Will Jump In the First Two Months of 2006.
We're looking at a perfect storm for HDTV sales in January and February. First, Congress will soon pass a new Digital TV deadline for 2009, which will encourage more consumers to buy digital sets. Second, the Super Bowl will be broadcast in high-def in early February. . And, third, the 2006 Winter Olympics will be broadcast in high-def in February as well. The three events -- all coming together at roughly the same time -- will persuade previously reluctant consumers to go shopping.

13. DIRECTV Will Shake-Up Its Executive Team
Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. purchased a controlling interest in the nation's largest satellite TV service nearly two years ago. But he can't be entirely happy with its performance. Although the satcaster continues to add subs, its rate of growth is slowing. Even more troubling is that DIRECTV's churn rate is climbing, perhaps in part because of the company's declining attention to customer service. DIRECTV recently had to settle two major legal cases in connection to poor customer service.

So, I predict that we'll see a management shake-up at DIRECTV in 2006.

14. The Plasma-LCD-DLP-SED Flat-Screen TV War Will Spur More Interest in HDTV.
However, the battle will also confuse consumers. People are unfamiliar with these arcane industry terms, such as LCD and DLP. They might be interested in buying a high-def set, but they're not sure if they're buying the right one. The industry needs to do a better job of making the choice easier for consumers.

15. The Networks Will More Frequently Promote HDTV As a Reason to Watch a Primetime Show.
You're already starting to see this. ABC, for instance, promotes the fact that Monday Night Football airs in high-def. But next year, as more people get high-def sets, you'll see the networks include HDTV in more advertising campaigns for primetime shows. You'll also  see the networks include elements in shows that can only be seen by high-def viewers.  

Click Here to Read More Predictions!

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Phillip Swann is president and publisher of TVPredictions.com. He has been quoted in dozens of publications and broadcast outlets, including CNN, Fox News, Inside Edition, The Chicago Tribune, The Associated Press and The Hollywood Reporter. He can be reached at swann@tvpredictions.com or at 703-505-3064.

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