Blu-ray vs HD DVD: No One Is Winning
Every few months it is time to read the tea leaves and try to decipher what is going on in the HD-DVD and Blu-Ray “format war”. With all of the recent pronouncements from both camps in the last few months, the sales numbers and the endless PR BS from both sides, I have made several observations and have come to several conclusions.
1. Neither side is selling well. Quite frankly, the sales numbers from both formats remain pathetic. This may be a war with no winner. A lot of fuss was made by Warner about the sales of 300 reaching 300,000 combined on both formats. One problem, the DVD sold several millions. Quite a difference.
2. The real war is High Definition media vs. DVD. With sales of a disc on either format being a small percentage of their DVD counterpart, it is clear that the public does not see enough of a benefit to either format to pay the extra cost. The public is very happy with the quality of DVD on their HD sets. The difference between HD and BD and DVD on sets under 50 inches is not all that great and not enough to get people to spend exorbitant amounts of money for the players and the discs. With upconverting players available for well under $100 and new releases available on DVD for $13.99 and catalogue titles for under $10.00, most people do not see the need for players over $200 and discs priced at $34.99 and up. Why spend $34.99 for the new Fantastic Four BD disc when the DVD can be had for $14.99? For most consumers, that is a no brainer.
3. New releases please. The only discs from either side that sell well are new releases. Some catalogue titles have not even sold 1,000 copies. Chicago on BD and Casablanca on HD-DVD come to mind. The lesson there is related to a point in 2 above, and that is that people are happy with DVD and see no reason to purchase a title on HD or BD that they already have on DVD. Just take a look at the low number of the Pirates of the Caribbean 1 and 2 that have been sold on BD. Why? Millions of people have both on DVD and see no reason to buy them twice. I would bet that even though it was a terrible movie, Pirates 3 will sell more than the first two did combined on BD in December. If I were a studio, I would concentrate on new releases. Catalogue titles would be limited to newly re-mastered classics. Blade Runner comes to mind. On the HD-DVD side, those discs would be combos only with no separate DVD release and will be priced accordingly to make them attractive to the consumer. Paramount is taking this approach with the upcoming Star Trek The Original Series box set, except for the reasonable price part.
4. Prices of HD and BD discs are way too high. They would sell a lot more of each at $19.99 than they will at $34.99.
5. The BD CE companies can’t be happy at the number standalones they are selling. For them, the whole point of BD was to sell machines at much higher price points than they were getting for DVD players. With the price cuts on the PS3, with a new $399.00 PS3 available on October 28th, companies like Panasonic and Pioneer will have to continue to cut the prices of their machines to compete. I don’t think they will want to have to sell machines at a loss or barebones profits just to compete with the PS3.
6. Sony may win the format war but at what cost? Sony’s gaming division is already suffering huge losses due to the PS3. While the PS3 has helped give BD the edge, although not much of one, the high cost of the players and lack of games has made it a loser in the console wars, which is much more important than the home theater market. HD media will be obsolete due to downloads long before the gaming market moves on to some other form of distribution.
7. I thought the war was over! The BDA (Blu-ray Disc Association) should just keep their mouth’s shut. They proclaimed victory back at CES 2007 and have continued to repeat that line ever since, even in the face of slowing disc sales and the Paramount announcement. Reading the various forums, even some of the fanboys wish the BDA would quit with these pronouncements as it makes them look bad. Every positive development on the HD side or bad news from the BD side is met with the same pronouncement to the effect “Never mind, we have already won!” The most recent questionable announcement from the BDA concerns the issue of their production yields on the BD50 discs. There were posting on other forums and websites claiming that the yield rates for BD50 discs was poor and that the discs were being produced with reduced capacity as a way to increase yields. Not true claimed the BDA, claiming that great strides were made in the last year getting the yields up over 75%. As was pointed out by David Vaughn over the UltimateAV, these same claims were made last year. Something clearly does not compute on that issue. Problems and costs associated with BD50 yields was one of the reasons Paramount cited in their decision to drop BD and is likely something Warners is watching very closely. While some puffery and spinning is to be expected in the PR battle, outright lies are not. Trying to lie your way to a victory is no way to win this war.
8. The Paramount decision has had an effect on the market place. There has been a clear increase in the sales of HD titles vs BD ones since Paramount’s switch to HD exclusivity as judged by the Nielsen numbers. While there are weekly ebbs and flows, the numbers have been improving in HD’s favor since the announcement. This week, BD only lead 54-46, a far cry from the 70-30 weeks common prior to the announcement. It will be interesting to see where these numbers tilt, if at all, in the coming weeks with the release of some blockbuster titles from both camps.
9. There are too many issues with the playback of discs from both sides. The problems with the recent Fox releases of Fantastic Four 2 and The Day After Tomorrow not playing at all in one Samsung and the LG BD machine is totally unacceptable, as were the problems with some HD combo discs. More coordination is necessary between the CE companies and the studios on both sides to iron out these problems. We are too far into this process to still have these problems.
10. Despite the claims of technical superiority from the BDA, both camps can produce outstanding looking and sounding products. With the VC-1 and AVC codecs, the BD capacity advantage is not much of one at all in the real world. Nor is the higher bitrate encodes possible on BD as evidenced by the recent Nature’s Journey disc reviewed here.
11. The war increasingly looks like it will be a stalemate. I can envision all studies, with the possible exception of Sony, publishing in both formats by the end of 2008. Each side will have a difficult time leaving all those profits on the table that could be made by selling to the other half of the market. The only way I foresee one side winning would be if Warner’s goes exclusive. If they go HD exclusive, game over and BD becomes nothing more than a niche format. The same is true should they go BD exclusive, although the war will last longer than it would if they went HD exclusive, but only a year at most.
12. If you have one player or the other, get one of each. Be format neutral. That way you get to enjoy all the content from both sides. If you can wait, get the Samsung Dual format player as it appears to be BD profile 1.1 complaint and fully certified for HD interactivity. Furthermore, it appears that it will decode DTS-MA internally and pass that through its 7.1 analog outs. For me, that would be worth the extra cost over purchasing one player from both camps.
13. Finally, people take this war too damn seriously. I am not paid by either side to buy their players or buy their movies. I do not own stock of any player in the war and am not employed by any of them. I like to watch movies at home with great PQ and AQ as it is fun. Getting angry or being as obnoxious fanboy makes no sense to me. I get no jollies and do not derive my self worth by picking the right side in the war. Guys, get a life.
For more high-def news and views, please click: TVPredictions.com
For more high-def news and views, please click: TVPredictions.com
posted by webmaster @ 4:18 AM
48 Comments
48 Comments:
When it becomes cheap enough Sony & Panasonic will simply stop making most DVD players and replace them with BluRay players that can also play DVDs. You mention that no one is winning yet Bluray is obviously doing so. Not so much in player sales but in public awareness and perception it is by far the more popular format which is half the battle. It is also winning by a huge margin in the home PC market. There are loads of BluRay recorder drives on sale for you to install into your PC but there isn't a single HD-DVD one.
A lot of people dont seem to think the PS3 is going to win this war for BluRay but they are missing a very simple fact. There are over 1m PS3s in the UK. That means 1 in 22 households there has a BluRay player. Approx 1 in 33 households in Japan has one and 1 in 75 in the US. Those households are not going to go with HD-DVD when/if they upgrade to a HD format. Also their friends will be less likely to choose HD-DVD also. You see it doesn't really matter to BluRay if no one is picking up on HD media yet because they are getting players into peoples houses anyway. By March its expected that there will be more than twice as many PS3s sold so you could be looking at UK and Japanese figures for BluRay household ownership of 1 in 10 and US being 1 in 15.
HD-DVD simply cannot compete with that.
HD DVD has all its chances in the home entertainment market. I do belive in HD DVD because this format/entity exists by its own means. You will never see HD DVD officials compare themselves with their cometitor in such a childish way as those of Blu Ray do. Blu Ray always compare itself to HD DVD whereas HD DVD simply boasts its own qualities, in a civilised and distinguished way. In politics their are two kind of politicians : those who say that all the misery in this world is due to their rivals and predecessors; and those who propose something totally new, without comparing themselves to others. That second kind of politicians are the winners. The HD DVD policy is comparable to that second kind of politicians, and therefore it will be sucessful in the future.
To the above poster.
I don't think you understood what the first poster was saying. If everyone already has a BluRay player in a PS3 they aren't going to buy a HD-DVD player no matter how 'politely' they might sell them.
This isn't politics its home electronics. You don't buy something if you already have one and you certainly don't buy a format that's different to the one you or your family already have.
The comparison you make to politics is an inane one.
I love the part where you say be neutral and you are not biased.
lol.
whye then, you only review hd-dvd?
hd-dvd players have smaller players sold, so you go an say if you have one format player go and buy the other format player (hd-dvd)
hd-dvd is losing the war, small war or not, is losing it, so you go and say neither is winning
i doubt you havent be paid.
all trolls like the scripts "10 reasons why" "top ten" "thats the reasons why"
Is there a reason why people always say that people who take these Blu Ray VS HD DVD or PS3 vS XBox wars have no life? To me I just see the same thing as democrats VS republicans.
I agree with the person who said that when they become cheap enough they will just quit selling DVD players. If that happens Toshiba wont make as much money since they get a royalty payment off every DVD player and disc sold. Blu Ray is winning :-).
Microsoft is also take huge loses on its gaming machine. But even more so with the reserve (was if for $1B?) which it announced to cover recurring hardware failures. But unlike the PS3, anyone who wnats to use it for movies must pay additional for an add on.
Further, worldwide, stand alone BD players now out number stand alone HD DVD players -- you may want to get some updated statistics.
Before high definition is accepted in place of DVDs, they will have to come down in price. But we saw this happen with high definition tv sets; it is only a matter of time before we see it here as well.
You make a lot of valid observations and I agree with much of your perceptions and analysis.
However, I do not agree with some of your conclusions.
For instance, even if you argue that the difference in picture quality is not that great for the average consumer on displays smaller than 50-inches, that is not the only benefit of hi-def discs. For example, I have already become addicted to new and distinctively inherent features like pop-up menus and other interactive elements that are not available on DVDs.
Secondly, you and others talk about dropping hi-def software title prices to comparable DVD levels of $14.99. Why would anyone do that? The whole point of introducing a next-gen format of any type is to build prices and profit margins back up to previous or higher levels. Why would companies spend all this time and research to create a product with far higher inherent costs, only to sell it for the same price they are getting for their current format? They might as well just keep selling their current format and not waste all their time and money on a new format. When was the last time you paid the same price for a new car or a new pair of shoes as you paid for the same thing several years ago? Of course prices should be higher for a new and superior format -- but the supplier has to convince the consumer that the new product is indeed superior and worth the extra cost. I do not agree with you that most consumers will not see the cost benefit once they have been educated to the plethora of advantages of hi-def.
Third, I'm not sure why you think that if Warner were to go HD DVD exclusively, that would mean a quick "Game Over" for BD. BD would still have far more players in the market (w/ PS3) and would still have an edge on BD-exlusive studios and software distributors and still a massive edge on CE support.
Also, despite what they said publicly to rationalize their decision, yield rates and manufacturing costs are not the factors that drove Paramount to drop BD and that will not be what drives a decision by Warner. Studios don't bare any of those extra costs for BD -- the manufacturers subsidize those for studios at this point.
Finally, the primary point you make in your lead and your headline is the most important -- neither side is doing well enough to make the kind of dent in the market that is needed to win anything.
Arguing over the virtues of one format or the other at this point is not productive. This is not so much a war as a series of ring matches between two boxers (or gladiators or wrestlers, whatever makes the better visual for you).
But so far there are far too many empty seats in the arena to focus on which of the combatants is winning each bout. Promoters of all sides and everyone who wants to see this new spectator sport take root and thrive need to work together to spread the word and generate more fans for the sport in general. Once the crowds start filling the arena and TV audiences grow large enough, then you can start worrying about which combatant becomes the champion.
"The only way I foresee one side winning would be if Warner’s goes exclusive. If they go HD exclusive, game over and BD becomes nothing more than a niche format. The same is true should they go BD exclusive, although the war will last longer than it would if they went HD exclusive, but only a year at most."
That is what you said. Do you have any idea how ridiculous that sounds. You've got it completely back to front. And you expect people to believe you are not getting paid or have a clear preference or even agenda.
Could have fooled me.
BD not only has more players in the home base, but it's software sales is constantly in the lead week by week. Infact HD-DVD hasn't won a week of sales all year.
On top of that BD has more studio support, spielbergs films aren't inclusive in the Paramount exclusivity deal with HD-DVD. And BD has far, far more electronic manafacture support. All the big companys. Toshiba are pretty much going it alone. You can't win with those odds. It's simple maths.
BD is winning and it is just a matter of time. The Paramount deal is just prolonging the inevitable at the expense of consumers.
BD will win.
P.S. I am not a BD supporter, just pointing out some simple facts and the flaws in your argument.
i agree with the following points made in the original article and in the replies:
1. the whole point of CEs, Panasonic, Sharp etc supporting BD is because they can get more profit then selling HD DVD. With Sony dropping the heavily subsidised dual function PS3 to just $399, BD CEs will not be happy. Because they probably make more selling lower cost HD DVD player at the same price range as the PS3.
2. HD movie should be sold at a price slightly higher then Standard DVD. again, that is the whole point of the introduction of the hidef. CEs and Studios do not spent hundreds of millions in research so that consumers will get hidef at standard dvd prices.
3. BD talk to much. They should let their format do the speaking as HD DVD is doing. Rushing the day after tomorrow and ff4 to the market knowing that people are predicting issues with BD+, was a extremely stupid move. Yeah, we heard of issues with combo HD DVD disk and then we hear that warner is dropping combo next year, (well atleast until the combo disks are guaranteed to play with no problem on all HD DVD players.
4. PS3 will not win the formatf for BD. nearly a year had passed. there are more than 5mil PS3 worldwide yet the movie sales advantage over HD DVD is still pathetic. note that there are less than 1/2 million HD DVD players out there. PS3 owners will not influence their friends not to get HD DVD. PS3 will not reject HD DVD because more than 1/2 PS3 owners do not know that there is a BD drive in PS3.
6. If warners release exclusive in HD DVD, BD is dead! Why because, Disney will say hello to HD DVD too.
regards,
xboxboi ;)
btw- i like the latest Nielsen figure. especially taking into consideration there are 10x more BD playing hardware in consumers' hand in the USA as compared to HD DVD
Hi there ! All the posts above are very interesting and we now clearly see that you can find excellent arguments in favour of both formats. Several people are trying to explain the situation by "statistics", "maths"... That is very interesting, but were do you get your figures from ? I would be very happy if you could post some links to get this data. Of course, the figures would be accurate only if they are issued by organisations that are totally independant from both HD camps.
Thank.
(Sorry for the mistakes, English is not my mother tongue!)
OK some of you guys need to find some data to support your claims. BR players are now outselling HD players-Source please? Why is the HDA2 at no. 1 almost everyday on amazon and the closest BR player miles away? When the BDA proclaimed they were outselling HD players, HD DVD came out and showed how this was incorrect with data. The BDA tryed saying the were wining the standalone players because they grossed more money not sold more players, so they tricked people.
AS far as HD not being able to keep up, obviously they are considering they just had a 46 to 54% BR week. Sure they didn't win the week, but how pathetic is BDA sales with their millions of BR players that they haven't blown HD out of the water.
Whoever said Paramount didn't leave because of poor yeilds-Do you work for Paramount, did you talk with the president personally. How can you say with certainty that they are lying? You BR fans are contradicting yourselves, the first post says they are'nt wining in player sales then later down it says they are. Also whoever said BR is wining with public perception is wrong as well. Do a google search and see that Warners polls show that people prefer HD, the same has just been reported with Netflix. Oh by the way owners of BR will buy an HD player when prices come down, wwe've already got people buying it just to get the exclusives like transformers.
I totally agree with both previous coments.
I want HD-DVD or I want Blueray, but I don't want both, I believe many folks like ma don't want to dump a wad of cash only to be a loser and have to buy the winning formats player.
Declare a true winner and I'll buy one, I want it now, but I'm going to hold out until a true winner is known.
As I see it, they all loose until they work together and give us the consumer a single format that will be worthy of investing in.
I have posted review of BD here and on my own site. and those I paid for myself. Once I start getting new BD discs they will be posted also. I hope to have a few review samples this week. I review what are sent to me. I have both formats and enjoy them both. As for disc sales, at best, one side sells 2 and the other 1. On the otherhand, the real competition, DVD sells 1,000. How is the one selling 2 at most really winning? They aren't. People need to look at this rationally. Most aren't. As for price, guess what guys, most people don't take home theater as seriously as you do. They watch on smaller TVs, many without multi channel set ups. They watch TV and listen through the TV speakers. They are the lion's share of the market and they are used to paying $14 for a new disc and $5 to $10 for older titles. TO them, that is good enough. YOu can tell them over and over how much better HDM looks and it doesn't matter. What thyey have is good enough for them. To them, discs costing $40 or even $30 is a JOKE. Get over it, that is simply the way it is. HTR is not the same as a car. People need cars in our society. They do not need big TV and expensive movies.
For the poster who only wants one format, how many gasming systems do you have? Do you insiste that their be only one? There are several and they all do well and the stores are happy to carry them all. There is no way that shouldn't be true of HDM. These are all competer based systems not VHS. There is room for both of them to thrive.
Hi!
I'm a HD reviewer from Denmark and I enjoy your blog. Is it possible you can tell me what equipment you're using for your viewings?
Regards
Flemming Kristensen
Flemming, go to my personal blog and send me an email and I will
I do not own HD or Blu-Ray, and I do own many Sony Devices, including 5,(yes 5), Sony MP33 players and 6 MiniDisc recorder, and a Sony4X3 Projection television which is my main TV for right now. However from what I have seen the HD camp seems to have it's act together much more so than the Blu Ray camp. Sony has not done well in the format arena, betamax, ElCassette, MiniDisc(of which I'm was a firm believer), DAT, Atrac, they were all great but they never caught on. Maybe Sony is due for a winner, but to the casual observer, it certainly seems that HD works and that Bluray has hit many compatibility bumps along the road. And all this battle seems to do is to foster regular DVD sales, as most of us wait in the wings for a victor.
1. Both formats have only existed since last year. How long was DVD around before it went mainstream?
2. Prices on both hardware and software will obviously come down due to economies of scale.
3. People can tell the difference between SDTV and HDTV, when shown both. Thus, they can tell the difference between DVD and High Def DVD
3. Blu-ray will win the war come CES 2008.
4. On Saturday, Oct. 6 at 12:13am, Amir Majidimehr, chief spokesman for Microsoft on HD DVD, announced on the AVS forum that he was moving to a new position.
This marks the end of Microsoft's commitment to HD DVD.
Thus, HD DVD is doomed and Microsoft knows it and accepts the fact.
Nighthawk, do you happen to know Amir? I have met him and Kevin Collins on a few occasions and do not share your insight into the situation. If you don't, why post such idle speculation?
BD is winning because of PS3 Owners!
I do own a HD-A2 and I do own a PS3.
Guess what guys ! I have more HD DVD than BD. Why ?
Simple, im going out to get a movie and look at the prices, wow 39$ for a movie, should i put a little more and get a ps3 game ?
I end up buy a PS3 game! Why ? Cause the game i'll play more than 2 hours first of it, the god damn BD I can go rent it. Do you guys watch your movies more than once ???
I like the PS3 it rocks, i like my HD DVD cause it rocks too. The only difference here, like my girlfriend says, it she shouldn't be with me, she would only by a HD DVD because PS3 is known as a console gaming and she doesnt play games, all she wants if to put the damn DVD it in and watch her movie and every family that doesnt play games think that way. So are they going to buy a expensive BD / PS3 or are they going to buy HD DVD Players ? HD DVD is the key here.
For those who say PS3 sales are over 1million, yea most of people who own those ps3 like me , only wants good games to play on it no ?? Simple exemple here, Nintendo Wii , doesn't come with a DVD player why ? Like nintendo said, everyone already has a DVD Player ? Why should i raise the price of the console to put a DVD player. That's so true. If the PS3 would be like a car, i wouldn't take the Blu ray disc playback if i could pay less for a extreme gaming machine.
PS3 is the best gaming machine on the market ! So keep it like that.
You guys will see when all those families start buying HD, they will all get HD DVD, they will go at Future Shop, in the Electronic Dept (not in the gaming dept they dont even care of games) and guess what, the guy will offer both products for that family and the family will say, what do i pay more for a BD player ?? the electronic guy will say, hum well the production costs is higher for a BD. And that's the only difference ? Yes because you won't see any difference on your HDTV both have incredible image and sound ! And you know the end, they will leave with the cheapest 1080i HD DVD player like i did.
I would never have both a BD , but since i play games i have the chance to have one !
Just think about it that way, normal people aren't upgrading there home theaters yet ! (families)
There alot of BD sales, (PS3 gamers) cause we (players) always are willing to pay for the next best gen CONSOLE !
I like my PS3 but i think sony will have to keep those Blu Ray Disc for their games witch wouldn't be that bad , that would help them from being copied since its so expensive.
Joe,
How else would you explain his departure from the HD DVD group at Microsoft and his departure from AVS?
Do you really think Microsoft would tell the world their intentions?
Do you really believe Microsoft supported HD DVD beyond trying to get VC-1 and HDi apopted by industry?
They failed. They know it. Thus, they are retreating to their fallback position and ultimate goal: the adoption of HD media downloads of VC-1 encoded content.
Nighthawk
forums.highdefdigest.com
There could be many reasons that have nothing o do with HD-DVD. Maybe he wanted to do something else with his time?. Maybe MS thought they wanted to use his talents elsewhere as the VC-1, HD-DVD group was doing so well that they could afford to have someone else take over for him and use him elsewhere. Why just jump to conclusions based on nothing more than pure speculation? Oh, I forgot, that is what the internet is used for these days, ezpecially without atribution.
And I suppose Steve Nickerson wanted to leave Warner so he could pursue other opportunities. Get real.
Like the saying goes: It doesn't take a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.
Ever heard of that one?
Do you really think HD DVD is doing so well that his service wasn't needed anymore?
Blu-ray has been outselling HD DVD 2-1 all year long and that lead will only increase as the 4th Quarter unfolds. Hollywood knows this. The consumer electronics industry knows this.
If you say so!
I have a small fortune invested in my home theater system but absolutely refuse to have to choose between 2 competing formats as well as spend a rediculous $34.99 for a movie in HD. They're both killing the golden goose.
I have been in a few stores lately that are comparing DVD vs High Def DVD (usually BD), and I can hardly tell the difference between the two. I don't think that is going to convince anyone to buy the High Def DVD players, especially with the uncertainty of which format survives.
I recall when the VCR format wars was out, and even though it was clear VHS was the winner in the mid to late 80s, Beta was around for a while after that. We are likely to see this happen here as well.
I agree that this is not over or even close. I still think it will be whoever charges the lower price will ultimately win. That is what happened witht he VCR (even though the Beta format was a better picture)and I don't see it any different here.
These posts focus on arcane technical differences between formats and volumes of sales to date that would have to improve to be pathetic.
IT'S THE PRICE, STUPID (to paraphrase a campaign slogan)
DVD player sales exploded when prices dropped below $100, and the same will be true here.
My money is on whatever format does not have Sony behind it, in this case HD-DVD. They have lost every format war to date because of control issues, and I see no reason for this losing streak to end now.
this is one of the best articles I have read on the format war! Finally someone in the press is reporting FACTS and not fallacy. Great job!
most of the people that say blu ray the best thing since sliced bread probably dont even have one.i know people that say its better and dont even have it,like sony owns them or something.the simple fact is you have to have both if you want to get the most out of high def movies,universal and paramount both make great movies that you cant get on blu ray,the same goes for fox not being on hd dvd.as a consumer i went for the cheaper of the two first,thats why i got hd dvd,i will sure be enjoying transformers next week :) i will be getting a blu ray player later when i dont have to sell my soul to get one...
Nobody has won the high def disc war until all the major studios are releasing their films in the same format. Until then, it's all just blowhard talk.
Blu-Ray and Hd-DVD are 8 year old twins in Daddy DVD's house. Both sides thinks its the best and will rule the house one day, but its Daddy who pays all the bills, and it will be many years before they even know what bills are.
Many like me, we just wait to see who wins. Then we will start buying. I think when that time comes sales will go up.
(My Two Cents)
You obviously don't own an HD player or HDTV.
I get so depressed reading comments to articles. Many of the responses are so arrogant and rude it grows tiresome to read.
If anyone cares, let me give you an "average" consumer viewpoint. I love watching HD movies, but am not buying a player for one simple reason. I cannot get the content due to some studios supporting one format exclusively.
If all studios released on both formats, I would buy an HD-DVD player for no other reason than it is less expensive. I don't care a whit about all the technical garbage. If the quality is equal, I'm going with the less expensive player. As for the price of movies, I rent from Netflix, so that is not an issue. I only buy discs for movies I absolutely love. It's a small collection.
I have a feeling the majority of "average" consumers share my view of the "war".
If you disagree, that's fine. I'm just offering my perspective as a "non-partisan".
Joe,
It's sad that you feel the need to put post #13 there, but it's also very obvious to anyone that you view this format war through rose coloured glasses.
You seriously think that if Warner went HD DVD exclusive that the war would be over more quickly than if they went Blu-ray exclusive? That's flat out ridiculous.
HD DVD - Universal, Warner Bros., New Line, HBO, Paramount, Dreamworks.
Blu-ray - Walt Disney Pictures, Pixar, MGM, 20th Century Fox, Sony/Columbia/Tri-Star
That's the situation that you think would result in game over?
HD DVD - Universal, Paramount, Dreamworks.
Blu-ray - Walt Disney Pictures, Warner Bros., New Line, HBO, Pixar, MGM, 20th Century Fox, Sony/Columbia/Tri-Star
This is the situation that you think would result in game over also, but taking a year longer?
Please explain that to me would you?
hd dvd is losing ... it feels like Blu-ray has already won with all the support. the only reason why some people are going exclusive hd-dvd is because they got paid out (for a losing battle). just look it up folks ....
I think I know what will REALLY decide this battle. I think in the end it will be PROFIT, not the number of sales.
I know that Sony has been losing money on every PS3 they sell. This is their strategy for getting the most number of gaming systems on the market. But what impact does this have on the unit as a Blu-Ray Player.
If the PS3 represents 80 to 90% of the Blu-Ray players in people's homes then, what does that mean to Blu-Ray's overall profitability?
Conversely, is Toshiba doing something similar to reduce the price of their players to the sub $300 level?
In the end, you can always count on a company doing what makes it the most money. Therefore, if Toshiba, with the HD DVD is making more profit than Sony, they will win, or at least they will not go away. The same can be said for Sony and the Blu-Ray Player, if they are making more profit.
I think I know who's likely to make more profit in this arena, and I've made my choice accordingly.
And no, twice as many sales do not mean twice the profit. If you sell at a loss, it means you've lost twice as much money. Big companies don't like losing money for a very long time.
Therefore, profit ratings posted on the stock exchange at the end of this year's final quarter will sound the death knell for the loser. Who-ever that may be!
Sorry, guys... But I *do* think it's finally game over for Blu-Ray.
Up until recently, Blu-Ray has had the upper hand... Initial sales of the PS3 gave the format a toehold and Sony managed to get the lion's share of studio support. Unfortunately for BR, the PS3 has fallen on its face and standalone BR players are gathering dust on retailers' shelves.
Meanwhile, sales of HD DVD players is growing... dramatically. And sales will continue to grow as HD DVD players slip below that magic $200/unit price point. Sony is already losing money on PS3... they can't compete with prices on HD DVD players.
Bottom line... HD DVD boxes sell, BR boxes (including the failed PS3) don't. And then, it's just a matter of time before the BR exclusive studios defect...
Just take a glance at Amazon's listing of bestselling DVD players and you'll see the writing on the wall...
I'll give you a hint... looks like Toshiba's going to have a merry xmas.
Never have I seen a piece of misinformation been published by some many people with impunity.
Up converting players do nothing a HDTV doesn't do by itself.!!
HDTV’s have a fixed number of pixels and they have to fill them all with whatever you give them. So the video signal will get unconverted (or downconverted) to match the native resolution of the TV set.
Don't let stores charge you more for an up converting DVD players, all HDTVs have up converters built in!!
What makes a little bit of a difference is the type of interface you use, and it just so happens that the higher end digital interface HDMI is only available on upconverter players. The component cable interface (the one with 3 coax cables) although analog in nature provides just as high quality picture as HDMI.
Don’t believe me? Try it, connect an normal $20 DVD player via component cable to your HDTV and compare the picture quality to an upconverting DVD player. You will see no difference.
Franke
Who cares in average consumer land THE PLACE I LIVE all my films are on standard dvd and i dont plan on buying anything else for a long time, Why? because i like the extra money in my pocket and hd formats do not offer much advantage to me.
Here is a list of why I was originaly convinced to switch and i think the reason most other real people went from VHS to DVD.
The convenience and the picture quality was a huge leap. Half the space in my cupboard, No rewinding, Menus giving me choices, Subtitles in all films, I think the best was when i turn the dvd player off for the first time and it switched back to tv.(hardware related i no but still seemed like a great idea that my vhs didn't do at the time).
Now apart from some more menu options and a very slight picture quality improvement can someone tell me why should i give any film company or hardware manufacturer a big chunk of my change?
Blu-Ray is a superior technology in every way to HD DVD except when it comes to the price so i really hope Blu-Ray wins. lets face it the beta max was a superior technology to the VCR but because of the price differnce unfortunately the VCR won. and i believe if the Beta Max had won that war the the DVDS, Blu-Rays, & the HD DVDS we have today would have had a better picture and sound and possably had more memory capasity then they have today. i am not an expert but when the better technology loses to an inferior technology i believe its a set back for all of us in the long run and thats why i feel this war is important think about it.
(For the record, I'm solidly in the Blu-Ray camp.)
The talk is now that Warner (supports both formats)will go exclusively one format over the other by the first of next year, dependent on sales performance of each format. Exclusively Blu-Ray, and HD-DVD might not have the market to survive; exclusively HD-DVD and a stalemate develops at a near equal sales rate.
I would add that comsumer camcorders supporting Blu-Ray and AVCHD (native playback on Blu-Ray players) gives yet another avenue for Blu-Ray adoption.
Finally, Apple has not yet weighed in, but a BTO option for a Blu-Ray burner/player would heavily influence content creators.
Dell is a big player as well, and is offering Blu Ray players and writers on all their systems now. This will certainly have an impact. I've seen teh amount of HD-DVD's on teh shelf at the local stores dwindle while the Blu Ray selections take over that space. It's only a matter of time now. I think Blu Ray has won.
Horraay for BluRay!!!! From a gaming perseptive, the higher capacity discs are superior!
Upconverting really works, it makes picture smoother, hilites rolloff more gradual and rids of ugly edges. Maybe for films this is not all that noticible (movies look great SD or HD) but for the content originated as video the difference btwn reg progressive scan DVD and upconverting one (good one)is big. And i totally agree with many here who said that upconverting was good enuf for majority of consumers. IMO HD disks dont go anywhere.
mike
There is hardly a winner. I've been viewing HD & BD side by side for a long time. I am a videophile and I dont see a difference. 1080P is 1080P. It seems that the extra capacity on BD is not a factor. Yet, browsing the shelves at Best Buy and Circuti City, people are really not knowledgeable about either format. "Blu-Ray is much better", "HD-DVD is much better". These people dont know what they are talking about. By the way, VHS did not win over Beta by price, they won because JVC had a marketing genius (I forget his name off hand). It's all in the marketing of the product. Marketing and availability usually go hand in hand. Exclusivity of the product, like Paramount and HD-DVD and maybe Warner making a decision will turn the tide. Meanwhile, I have both players and will buy the movies I like on the format that is easiest to acquire.
I think you all you people are missing the whole point of this blog. Basically what he was saying. Is most people dont give a damn about Blu-ray or HD DVD. Only people with cash burning in there pockets give a crap about this whole war. That Electronic and sony dorks. Most normal people could care less. Plus like he said the war isnt HD DVD vs Blu-ray. But HD vs DVD and on that ground. HD is losing.
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