The Real Future of Television

After my comment on HD VOD, I have received several comments telling me that I was wrong and that VOD is the future of cable television. I will agree that VOD is the future not of cable television, but though the distribution of all video content in ways those critics have not yet considered. Let me peer into my crystal ball and explain.

First and foremost, let me start off by stating that the overwhelming majority of video content in the future will be in HD. There will be stragglers out there to be sure, most likely low power UHF channels and some religious broadcasters. The HD content will not be limited to 720p and 1080i but will include 1080p as well as higher resolutions such as 4k which will become available. Most of this 1080p content will be from cable channels and not broadcast, at least initially. Second, my time frame for this distribution system is 15 years. It may be sooner, but 15 years seems just about right, or so says my crystal ball.

The cable and DBS systems we see in place and the present practice of bundling channels into digital tiers will cease to exist in 15 years. ALL video content will be IP based and streamed over the internet with compression schemes that will insure instant download speeds with no loss in quality. HD content in all resolutions and audio codecs will be streamed to your home and stored in your server. All homes will be equipped with a central server which will be able to stream all of the available content wirelessly to any device in your home or to any handheld portable device. It will also be able to stream that content to you anywhere in the world to be accessed by you with a broadband connection. Broadband speeds will be many orders of magnitude over what is available today.

You will no longer order your content from your cable company. You will order directly from the content provider. Yes, you will order directly from CBS, ABC, Discovery or whatever providers are available then. That content will be streamed to you to watch when you want as soon as it is available. We will no longer be tied to a broadcast schedule. Simply put, the content providers will cut out the middle man, that is your cable company or DBS provider. Unless the cable company invests in content, like Comcast Sportsnet for example, all the cable company will be is a pipe into your home. Nothing more. Too early to sell that stock, but that is where we are heading. Within 15 years, content will truly be king. You will no longer have to buy channels you do not want. Bundling will be a thing of the past. This is pure a la carte as well as VOD. The future will be amazing.

This content distribution model will apply to all video content not just what we presently think of as TV. That includes movies and music. Despite all the bloviating involved in the current format war, Blu-Ray, HD-DVD and DVD for that matter will no longer exist in 15 years. Oh you may still have them in your homes but no new content will be distributed by that method. What discs you have will already have been loaded into your server. All those discs will look mighty pretty on your bookshelf, but will no longer be used, other than to collect dust. All content currently being distributed via DVD, HD-DVD and Blu-Ray will be distributed solely via the web. Period. That includes audio as well, other than a still viable vinyl market for those real old schoolers out there. (Yes, I still have a turntable and love it, so consider me an old schooler on that issue).

An interesting by product of this distribution model will be in the distribution of sports. Yes, sports will no longer be on broadcast TV and will be distributed live, streamed via the web, in full HD. The NFL is already considering this idea. Think about all the money the NFL gets from broadcast and cable. That will be a drop in the bucket compared to what they can get distributing the content themselves. They will have total control over the way the games are presented, being able to pick the announcers and control what they say. They will use the same independent production trucks used now at low cost. They will keep all the subscriber fees as well as all ad revenue. Their only real cost will be the cost they will incur to whoever owns the pipe by then. Whatever that cost will be, it will be small. That is one huge pile of cash folks, a huge pile and it all will go to the NFL. All sports leagues will move to do the same. No more Sunday Ticket or Center Ice or League Pass. All games will be available to anyone with a broadband internet connection, for a steep cost however. Get ready to open those pockets folks.

I know there will be some of you who will think this is all pure hogwash and pie in the sky. Yes, I am thinking of you Mark Cuban. Sorry but this is the way it will be done. Say goodbye to the cable companies. HD will be streamed by the web. Just think about what the internet was in 1995. Imagine, just imagine what it will be like in 2020 and beyond. Not only is it possible but it will happen. Book it Danno!

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