HD DVD Is Dead
Well with the somewhat shocking news out of Warner that they are dropping support for HD-DVD and releasing their high-def titles exclusively on the Blu-Ray format and all the buzz that it has created on the web, I figured it was time that I offered my 2 cents on the issue as to what it all means both near term and long term.As for the near term, it spells the death of HD-DVD as a viable format. Put a fork in it. It's finished. The fact that the HD-DVD Group cancelled their news conference at CES Sunday night tells you all you need to know on that score. I can no longer in good conscience recommend to anyone that they purchase an HD-DVD player unless they can grab one for $50 and under and use it as an upconverting DVD player. I fully expect Toshiba to throw the towel in within the next couple of weeks. I fully expect Paramount and Universal to announce support for Blu-Ray, perhaps even by the end of CES. You may get those Blades of Glory Blu-Ray discs yet!
I would also expect to see an end to those BOGO Blu-Ray sales as well as there will be no need for them. I also expect that you will see and end to any further price drops on Blu-Ray players either standalones or PS3 consoles. While I doubt that the various BD hardware vendors will raise their prices, they have no reason at this point to lower them any further, at least in the short term. I am also sure you will see a lot of HD-DVD discs and players showing up on e-bay and being returned to vendors. If you have a sizable HD-DVD collection, keep an eye out as you may be able to snag a player real cheap as a back up. However, expect no further firmware upgrades from Toshiba.
As for the long term, the jury is still out as to what the final impact this announcement will have for the future of high def optical media. Personally, I have not been of the mind that the format war had much of a bearing on the slow adoption of high def discs. As I have written on a number of occasions, I view the rather meager sales of high def discs on both formats to be due mainly to two other factors, the high price of the hardware and software on both sides as well as the popularity of DVD. After being used to DVD player prices well under $100, even for an upconverting DVD player and discs priced on sale anywhere between $5 and $15, the mass market has little interest in spending hundreds for a new player or players and over
$30.00 for discs, even more so considering that some have been purchasing DVD copies of Blu-Ray movies for travel purposes, especially those Disney films.
These two factors have not changed with Warner's announcement of exclusivity. Until the price of a new Blu-Ray player hits the $100 price point and discs under $20, sales will still lag way behind DVD. With uncertain times ahead in the US in 2008, the mass market will have even less incentive to spend for a new player and high priced discs. Regular old DVD will do just fine for most. Remember, surveys have repeatedly shown that only 40% of owners of HD sets even have an HD signal hooked up to it and instead use their sets to watch standard definition TV and DVD. Do you think that all these folks are going to run out and buy a Blu-Ray player because of the Warner's announcement? I think not.
So where does this all lead us? The way I see it, optical HD media has little chance of being the next mass adoption media. The next mass adoption media will be downloads and HD VOD. Yes fans, even Blu-Ray will go the way of the Mini Disc, Beta, VHS and 8 tracks into the dust bin of history, at least as a pre-recorded movie medium and a whole lot faster than any of you think. Pure and simple, downloads are the future. Why? Well, with broadband speeds getting faster and faster fairly quickly, you will be able to download an HD film fairly easily in a couple of years. Look at music downloads and the sales of CD's. Face it, most people got tired of buying CD's for a couple songs. When downloading became available, the music buying public
flocked to it. Instead of changing their business models to reflect the new reality, the music industry fought rather than embraced downloads, to their financial detriment. The movie studios will not make the same mistake.
While there will always be people like me who love having physical copies of movies (and CD's and LP"s for that matter), the mass market has embraced MP3 downloads of music and have
stopped buying CD's as a result of a convergence of many factors, chief among them cost and convenience. This same model will play itself out with movies as well. Think about it. How many times do you watch a movie after you purchase a HD-DVD or Blu-Ray disc or a DVD
for that matter? Wouldn't most people rather just rent the disc under those circumstances? With downloads, they will be able to do just that with the click of a mouse. So they will be able to only watch the film once or twice for $5. To them, that is better than doing the same thing for $10 or $15 or in the case of HDM, $30. This, ladies and gents, is the future and guess what, the studios will be more than happy to see it happen.
Why?
They will no longer have to spend money to manufacture discs, they will be able to control its
distribution more carefully, enable stronger DRM and even better, get revenue each time you want to watch the movie as the downloads will more than likely be limited to one or two showings. Want to watch it again? No problem as long as you agree to pay another small fee. This is all exactly what the studios want. In fact, they are salivating at the thought of this very business model Long before the time that Blu-Ray gains mass acceptance, HD downloads will be gaining momentum and will have supplanted Blu-Ray. Blu-Ray will still only be a niche product by that time, lagging behind DVD and downloads, just like SACD and DVD-A lagged behind CD's and downloads. Yes, Blu-Ray will be another SACD or DVD-A. It is said that time waits for no man. Neither does technology.
Yes, Blu-Ray has won the format "battle" but will lose the "war" to downloads and HD-VOD. That is my story and I am sticking to it!
For more high-def news, please click: TVPredictions.com
posted by webmaster @ 4:04 AM
55 Comments
55 Comments:
Downloads are a long way off. At least five years. Blu-ray will be mainstream by then.
Actually, they're NOT dropping support for HD-DVD, they're dropping support for HD DVD. Please stop putting the hyphen in.
What's the difference between HD-DVD and HD DVD? Toshiba are screwed either way! lol
As for Blu-ray being a niche product I disagree. I think it will be a long time before downloads become the norm.
For one all ISP's would need to become a hell of a lot faster (when you decide to watch a film you want to do it then not wait a few hours for your PC to buffer the film), and all bandwidth limits would need removing (which would mean very expensive running costs for ISPs). Also, while possible in the US, most of the World is way off having every household with a 10MB+ broadband connection. Look at how long it's taking to get people to upgrade to Digital TV (in the UK), I think you're looking at a minimum of 10 years before we get an all digital world as the norm.
Also where does that leave all the companies that resell/rent the media, you're looking at job losses on a massive scale.
Also you can't overlook peoples like of a collection. I have hundreds of limited edition/special edition/collector edition DVD's, I may not watch them more than once or twice, but it's the feeling of having them there to look at and feel and use whenever you want to even in 10, 20, or 30 years time. I don't want to rely on browsing some server for movies/TV which can be taken down or changed at will.
Nor do I want to pay over the odds for a non-physical product of lessor quality (I have VOD, but the picture and sound is no where near that of a blu-ray and it's hugely expensive by comparison of what you get).
And what if you want to watch the film in a caravan or in your car, how do you download that?
DVD is already in decline (in 2008 the market will shrink for the first time in 10 years). More and more people are going to be getting HD TV's and will be wanting HD content to play on it.
While we won't see the mass rebuying of your old DVD films (there's simply no need with upscaling, apart from special examples like Blade Runner), unlike how everyone went out and replaced their VHS collection with DVD.
I think in the future new films will be more successful on Blu-ray, don't forget the fact DVD's can be played on Blu-ray players makes it much easier for the Joe Bloggs consumer to make the jump...
good writeup, I agree with most of it. A good amount of people have no interest in anything other than DVD and of the ones that did care, 40% of them just got alienated. Personally I'll be going back to torrents and saving a butt load of money.
As for the third poster, while DVD's can be played on BD machine, BD's can't be played on a DVD machine. What about homes with multiple DVD players and portables and car players? Where si the incentive for those millions out there to get a BD player when theycan't play the discs anywhere in the house. Rember, these people have HD sets and don't even have ANY HD source hooked up to them. We are a LONG way off from any chance of BD having mass appeal. As for those who poo poo downloads, you just wait. See me again in 3 years.
Money talks - BS walks.
If the prediction holds true and HD DVD doesn't remain a viable format, I simply purchase regular DVDs and take advantage of my Toshiba players' outstanding upconverting capabilities.
I'll never purchase any BR player or media.
all this will acheive is that the hd dvd adopters will sit back on the fence.
were not getting stung twice!!!
if it was about the consumer from the beggining both formats would have been made by all studios and would have been great for the compotition.
sony have now got all the cake and that can mean only one thing mine mine mine mine mine mine mine mine mine mine mine mine mine
I fully agree that downloading is the wave of the future. Some here say that it will take 5 years to become fully implemented. My bet is that within 5 years Blu-Ray will be gone too and another new format will take it's place. Downloading will alleviate this consumer constantly chasing the technology race we seem to be saddled with.
I'm also a bit skeptical about the HD downloads gaining mass acceptance anytime soon.
For one, DSL,cable, etc service need to get a hell lot of faster and reliable (for example I just wanted to upgrade my DSL to 6Mbps but the telco said sorry our cables just suck and can't give it to you..I live in a city that's in the top 10 population wise in the US and that's only 6Mpbs which is still far off from real-time HD downloads at will, anytime, 24/7). Our cable company's HD On Demand service is down several times a month. To rely on them every time I want to watch a movie??
Two, HD downloads will have the same problem as Blu-ray, in terms of you having to buy equipment in every room that can download and play it and if you downloaded in your living room, can you play it in your bedroom, etc. You need some pretty beefy home network at the least just to support the bandwidth between the different rooms (don't say just install a wireless network, because with current mainstream technology you'll have problems going through even a few walls). Not to mention cars, portable electronics. So initially it would be staying in your living room only.
So to summarize it definitely seems to me that a few things need to happen before downloaded, streamed HD content can become mainstream and reliable. Will Blu-Ray gain mass acceptance before that? I personally think so.
I was leaning toward Blu but I would not make a purchase until the ship listed heavily in one direction. It is now listing in the direction of Blu-ray and I will jump in that direction.
I do not think it (Blu_ray) will ever have market penetration of DVD. Not because of price, downloads, or the installed base of DVD players, but because of all of those and the impact of DVRs from the cable and satellite providers. (I appreciate the HD choices of movies and other HD features from my Dish DVR.) There will be a greater variety of options.
It will be extremely interesting reading all the reports coming out of the CES this week. Meanwhile, I'll be shopping Blu-ray.
Blu-ray Disc will not be another DVD-Audio -- HD-DVD is the equivalent of DVD-A in this format battle while BD is the analogy of SACD here: Support for SACD continues year after year while support for DVD-Audio has dried up years ago.
The HD DVD vs. Blu-Ray battle has a very significant effect on the HD VOD war in the future. The lack of HD DVD in the XBox 360, and the presence of Blu-Ray in the PS3, is a key reason for Blu-Ray winning today; the presence of the winning format disc player in the PS3 now makes it the overwhelmingly most attractive platform for HD VOD. It's actually a positive that PS3 has lost its gaming lustre; it will aid penetration into the the mainstream market, as the one-box one-stop all things HD media centre that happens to play games.
This will buy Sony some time to work on its movie download service, and suffocate Microsoft's ambitious plans in that arena.
BTW, this also spells the end to Microsoft's VC-1 as a viable producer-to-consumer codec.
I think blu-ray will go more the way of laserdisc than it will go the way of DVD-A & SACD... DVD-A and SACD never really took off. Blu-ray is something my parents are asking me about...they want the improved picture quality on their 58" TV.
Something that doesn't get mentioned much is the audio quality available on high definition disc media. I don't have faith in online distributions preserving the excellent audio choices that Blu-Ray and HD DVD offer. This was the primary reason I upgraded to Blu-Ray. I was frustrated with listening to crappy dolby digital sound all the time.
I suspect online movies will continue to offer much lower bitrates for video and especially audio.
I just dumped my HD DVD player for $100 on craigslist this morning. Hooked up my old upconvert player, moved on - no money lost - just a fun toy for a month. I really didn't notice a monumental difference, anyway.
I'll consider buying Blu-Ray when a good player gets below $200. Probably next Thanksgiving.
I agree with the author's predictions.
We'll never walk into a Blockbuster store dominated by Blu-Ray, with a small collection of DVD's off in the corner somewhere, reminiscent of what happened when VHS went the way of the Dodo. People won't "collect" Blu-Ray discs for their "home libraries".
I disagree with the sentiment of Blu-ray becoming a niche market to the likes of downloads and VOD. There is a big difference between downloading your average sized mp3 and the countless gigabytes required for a high-definition movie.
Though I suppose you are referring to the completely inferior M$ uber compressed HD-Lite 720p downloads with last-gen audio. Oh, an what about extras and that sort of thing? You are presuming people would just prefer to give all that up.
Of course, maybe you have "insider" information that we'll all have OC3 level connections in our homes in the next couple of years (for $20 or so). This would surely enable the average person to download something equivalent to Blu-ray.
Of course maybe you're just painting a picture of doom and gloom for Blu-ray because of sour grapes due to the format YOU choose loosing.
I Take it nobody has tried Xbox Live for films. I have and it is very good, I was watching a HD film within 40 mins of requesting it. It last 2 weeks and you can play as much as possible. It downloads 10% of the film then when you watch it the download goes mad and it is all download before the film ends. This is the future I used to go to Blockbusters but now I will just watch them in my Xbox. Blu-Ray and HD DVD are both dead and we all know that. I have not bought a CD for years and why is that MP3 enough said :)
HD DVD is Dead, oh and Blu-ray too!
I mostly agree with your findings, but I strongly disagree on one single sentence: The movie studios will not make the same mistake.
The filmmafia will be as stupid as the musicmafia, because they've invested a lot in the two new HD-formats.
They bloody simple are too greedy to switch to a better business model and sell "for a fair (*) price what the customer really wants without DRM".
(*) cheap.
Anyone that believes digital download RENTALS will be the mainstream method of movie delivery obviously does not have kids. They watch the same movie many, many times.
I do have kids and how many of your DVD are copies. Probably as many as your MP3 :)
HD downloads are already becoming prevalent with the Cable System On demand services. This will see the biggest growth in the coming years. It has already been growing quickly and is much larger than BD or HD DVD ever was and it also appeals to your average consumer.
I strongly disagree. The reason why ppl started downloading mp3s is to avoid all the crappy songs that we would have otherwise skipped on CD's. I'm sure most if not all of you know that. I would personally like to have a disc for my movie collection.After all its not like we buy movies for a certain chapter! The only reason I'd download a movie is to rent it.
i agree, hd downloads will be the norm by 2010, even here in ireland were getting over 20mb broadband, i would sooner download a hd movie to my 360 than buy a player and stack up a load of dust collecting hd dvds or blu ray boxes
I happen to have a vast blu-ray library and will continue to support this format.
Downloads are very easily available in DVD format at the moment but hi-def ones will be a long way ahead. The next gen of games consoles will be available long before that option is commercially viable. The UK is one of the few countries not to have fibre optic cables carrying the internet signals, leaving us behind in the download speed race.
I have a 40" Sony Bravia 1080p TV and can't stand watching DVD's pixelate and lag as they do on sets of this size. As a film fanatic, blu-ray gives me the much desired visual and sound quality that i seek from a good film.
Blu-ray may never dominate the commercial industry but it will certainly be the future choice for those that want their films on their shelf. It just won't happen until the price war begins.
Jeeze i kinda feel bad for these hd-dvd supporters. If you can just feel how theyre typing is such misery. Now just because blu-ray won you people are sticking with a different alternative like going back to torrents or going back to the cave with sd dvd. Lol GROW UP! How old are most of you that are crying about this? I mean be my guest and go back to old tech until you question yourselves when am i going to grow up and take it like a man. Personally id run over hd-dvd and 360 fans, but dude cmon just get over it. The truth hurts. And oh yea.... If you go to BLU-RAY as formerly a hd-dvd supporter then youre a sell out
Joe Whipp's response was predictable to say the least. Just as many blu-ray haters he isn't a fan of movies or home theater but simply a pawn for MS. It is amusing reading similar posts from the blu-ray haters out there.
I have no sympathy for Joe Whipp and other people are were simply lobbyist for HD DVD from the get go. I'm all for him settling for low quality VOD, honestly he isn't worthy of what blu-ray offers.
As far as the last poster is concerned, in the first instance, at least spell the name right. That shouldn't be so hard. As for the rest of your post, get real. I have 1000 DVD's and at least 250 Blu-Ray and HD-DVD discs about evenly split. I have inversted many multiple thousands of dollars in HT equipemt and have been a HT enthusiast since Beta hi-fi. A pawn for MS. For God's sake I have an iMac! I am quite sure I spend alot more time watching HDM than any of the posters here each week. I am far from a BD hater. If I was, why would I have spent $700 on the Panny player? If don't agree with my download opinion, so what. I have been consistent with that prediction on many posts here and on my blog. I just see the internet as being a much more powerful tool in the future than many of you do. We have only begun to scratch the surface of what it can do. Poor PQ and AQ? Think again. The eventual PQ and AQ of downloads will better that of HDM. While I really respect most of the comments to my postings, there is always one or two, probably posted by guys in their underwear in their mother's basement who piss me off. The last guy is one of them.
I think downloads are a possibility, but those will take a decade or two to catch on. Why? Because the majority of Americans like to have something to show for their money. Why spend $5 every time you want to download a movie when for $15 you can have the physical object. We Americans like to have a lot of stuff to call "mine."
You can't own a download that expires.
i don't think that download content is the future...you're absolutely wrong on that note. People want to own the things that they buy thus feel them physically, therefore they will buy those high-def dvds and not download them...only a marginal group of people will use download. And who would want to wait 20 hours to download a movie before watching it anyway. No one. At the most 30 second, the length it takes to load a dvd into the tray.
Joe,
I agree with you that the internet will be much more powerful than it is today. But the question is when will it reach the level that the average person can sit down on a Friday night at 8pm with their family to download a high-def movie without any interruptions, lost connection, slow download, etc issues. Sure, many people can do that now, but what happens when millions of households want to do it at the same time? DSL, cable providers currently wouldn't be able to deal with that kind of bandwidth requirement. I think it will take more than just a few short years until we get there.
Of course if people will be happy with overcompressed 720p content with the low bitrate Dolby Digital audio that might be different.
I agree with the last comment. People need something physical things. I think the only reason why these people are saying:"Well you wait and see until our very holy and backstabbing god bill gates will shower us with downloadables and we will banish your blu-ray to hell" PATHETIC!! All hd-dvd supporters are crying. I SPIT on all their faces. So go right ahead and keep supporting hd-dvd it We blu people dont care. All i really want to say is that im happy the Blu won and we just came on your face Reds
Everyone is going on about HD DVD this and Blu-Ray that and HD downloadable content this.....I'm not sure of the cost but those micro SD cards are pretty fucking small and can hold a lot of data.
Perhaps that boat has already sunk? nah, watch this space, the compact disc, DVD, BD disc will all become obsolete and these cards, perhaps a new checmical element that can hold even more data, hell maybe even a crystal, will be the way of the future.
mmmm white dual shock
http://www.play-asia.com/SOap-23-83-6vmj-71-bm-49-en-84-k-40-extended.html
I claim no allegiance to either Blu Ray or HD DVD. I just want a great picture on my 50" plasma when I watch a movie. I just bought the Toshiba with the 10 free HD DVD's from Amazon last week, based on an article I read that said both formats could co-exist. I am considering returning it to Amazon, of course, after the Warner announcement. I looked at exchanging it for a BR player, but they cost about twice as much. (I paid 178 for my promo package.) I guess what I'm trying to say is that the industry doesn't care what happens to the little guy, winning the format war is the big thing. When I bought the Toshiba, I figured the 10 free flicks would cost about the same as the player, so it was essentially free. It does a nice job of upconverting my standard discs, even the ones I copied and compressed onto single layer discs. Therefore, I may just keep the unit as an upconverting player. I don't know that I want to shell out 400 or more for either a Samsung or Sony, or a PS3, thought the PS3 seems the better deal, since you can play games, too. My problem with downloads is that my TV isn't near my router, so I'd have to run a cable across the floor or figure some way to set up a wireless connection. I have a Directv High Def DVR, so I can sort of do that now, purchase ppv movies and they will stay on my hard drive. I do think Sony will be making a big mistake if they think that now they can keep the price on their players ridiculously high. That alone will probably make the market for blu ray shrivel up and die from lack of interest.
Poster no. 32 and 33, show some class please. I am sure your employer, if you have one, would love to see how you continually make as ass out of yourself here. You are paid just as much by swanni as I am for my blog here, zippo. I do this because I love HT and movies as well as music and love a lively but repectful debate. Unfortunately, people like you make it harder to enjoy the process but I will continue on. BTW, how much is is th BDA paying you to watch their releases? Oh, you are paying them just like everyone else so why is it so personal for you? Guess what guys, this is only my opinion, the way I see the future. It is not life and death. Get a life and really, take off your PJs and leave the basement. It is a wonderful world out there.
As for the comments about people needing to own physical media, tell that to newspapers where print versions will eventually disppear as will be the case with magazines. All will be available only on line. The same will be true with books. Book downloads are already a reality and will get cheaper and better over the next few years as well as more popular. Lack of physical ownership hasn't been a hindrance for music as people are happy downloading content to their computer and then to their ipods and abandoning CD. Video will be no different. Also, forget DSL. Why do you think that broadband speeds won;t get alot faster very soon. The cable cos and telecos are scrambling now to greatly increase speeds. We are really at the infancy of what the internet can and will be. I think I have said all that I can on this subject. Agree to disagree but please be civil and remember, it is not life and death.
For all the hype about HD and what people will put up with or not . . .. I look at what's happened to the wild embracing of the MP3. Talk about a huge step backwards in the realm of audio quality - yet, the convenience and wide-spread acceptance of less-than-HD quality makes it a defacto standard. I am convinced that most cannot see or hear the kinds of "ultimate" quality the technophiles have us pursuing with our wallets.
Joe,
I agree with you that the internet will be much more powerful than it is today. But the question is when will it reach the level that the average person can sit down on a Friday night at 8pm with their family to download a high-def movie without any interruptions, lost connection, slow download, etc issues. Sure, many people can do that now, but what happens when millions of households want to do it at the same time? DSL, cable providers currently wouldn't be able to deal with that kind of bandwidth requirement. I think it will take more than just a few short years until we get there.
Of course if people will be happy with overcompressed 720p content with the low bitrate Dolby Digital audio that might be different.
This is why I think HD downloads are not the future (for buying anyway). Lets assume the downloads speeds reach adequate levels across the world. People don't want to pay to watch a film a couple of times and then pay for it every other time they feel the urge to watch it. They don't want to be restricted to viewing it of one place (I know you can stream it wireless) they want to take there film and use it elsewhere round you friends house e.t.c... If you cant do this it's only slightly better than renting it from blockbuster. Hence I am a bit perplexed as to why Microsoft payed off paramount as they will eventually only be competing with the rental stores.
In conclusion HD downloads:
Good for rentalls not for buying
Joe Whip said...
Poster no. 32 and 33, Show some class please.
Good lord you are one of the biggest hypocrites I know. You post a blog specifically to blast blu-ray fans for doing the exact same things HD DVD fans do and you make comments like this.
as for your download, yeah I'll wait 5+ years for them to get remotely close to blu-ray's quality.. Nah, I'll continue to enjoy the best now thank you.
I'm so freaking happy that Warner did the right thing for the majority of consumers.
I am curious if you will still be working for MS or Toshiba after HD DVD finally folds.
It would seem that a lot of HD DVD fans are bitter (not excluding the author of this tvpredictions.com article). Talk about "predictions", heh. You were wrong, by the way.
Bitter, not at all. I could really care less who would have won. I had both and will continue to enjoy my HD DVD collection until my player dies. I will do the same with BD until it is replaced as it surely will. I still listen to my LPs often. Why is it that whenever someone voices an opinion, he is employed by one side or the other? I really think fanboys of any color stripe are fools, blue or red, Gaming fanboys too. I do not derive my self worth from HDM or gaming systems.
Also, all you anonymous posters are classic. How about having the guts to at least identify yourself.
I'm not so sure that Toshiba won't keep flogging this dead horse. They have zillions of yen invested, not to mention huge amounts of corporate ego, and they HATE Sony and Philips. And, of course, there's that purported $150 megabucks slipped to Paramount/Viacom...
Additionally, there's that little outfit up in Redmond to consider -- can anyone imagine their adopting Blu-ray?
The handwriting on the wall was visible when Warner decided to go with both formats in the first place. Warner was hugely in bed with Toshiba in the design and launch of DVD, and their conditional support of Blu-ray must have been a shock to Toshiba.
And few people seem to have noticed that a couple of days before Warner's announcement, Chris Cookson, the Warner technical honcho who shepherded DVD through its development and introduction, jumped to Sony.
VERRRRRRRRY Interesting... :)
I agree that movie studios would prefer a pay-per-play format for video. Just look at how Disney signed on for Xbox Live's Video Marketplace. Disney is notorious for releasing movies only for a limited time, but they do that because they want to keep demand up. VOD is totally what Disney wants! You don't have to wait for Disney to re-release it, but you do have to pay for it each time you watch it.
However, I also agree that many people, including myself, want a collection of our nearest and dearest movies. Therefore, I think there is still a market for HD-discs such as Blu-ray and whatever else might follow. I know there are a bunch of releases that I am still waiting for in High-Def that I can't wait to buy and watch whenever I bloody-well please!
Joe, I have to agree with you on this one. Warner was put in the position of having to decide the "Winning," HD Optical Media format battle and chose to go with the more popular of the two. I can not blame them (too much) for their decision, regardless of what I think or my investment in the HD DVD technologies. I do think that by having one HDM format for people to use will promote some adoption of the format however, Downloads are going to supersede physical media fairly quickly. 3-5 years is my prediction for this to happen. So while Blu-Ray appears to have the upper hand on this battle, I agree that between DVD and HD Downloads, Blu-Ray, HD DVD, whatever, will not WIN the real war!
As you stated in a follow on post, My investment in HD DVD (and in a PS3) will not go in vain, as I get enormous value out of my HT setup almost every day! =) I will keep my Stand alone HD DVD players as I too have a substantial investment in DVDs that are being up-converted buy the best possible up converting equipment (XA2s)on the planet today! I have absolutely no regrets, regardless of the final outcome of the HD DVD/Blu-Ray battle, about my investments!
To me this sounds like, "I'm an HD DVD supporter and since it lost screw BR, if HD DVD can't win then no one can". Second HD DVD seems to be on it's death bed HD DVD fanatics suddenly change their tune to no one wins the high def format wars (wishes he had a eye rolling emote).
Downloads are constantly rumored as the next big thing, maybe eventually, but not for a long time. Let's face it, most people want a physical copy. They want to pay $20-30 or whatever dollars for a movie, and in return be able to hold that movie in their hand. To be able to display it on a shelf. I doubt mainstream consumers would be alright at this point with paying $20+ for an intangible, digital copy they store on a hard drive.
Most consumers are still pretty computer illiterate. They want simplicity in just picking up a disk, poping it in a drive, and pushing play. Navagating to a website, entering their credit card or pay pal info (which many still distrust giving sites credit card info), finding the movie, then spending hours downloading it (not everyone has high speed cable) to watch a movie just seems like too much of a hassle for them when they can just drive to a local Wal-Mart and buy the movie and be back before the digital copy would have been 10% finished.
Digital downloads may be the future, but by the time downloads become THE format, Blu-Ray will have had plenty of time to take off. Holodisks are also rumored to come soon, though I have a feeling that they will be too expensive (drive and disK) to ever be considered as a movie format.
WOW - IF YOU WERE REFERRING TO MY COMMENTS AND OPTINONS then read on, if not, read on anyway, it might just entertain or enlighten you a bit. =)
Let it be known that I am not some dejected HD DVD supporter, as I have no reason to be. Nor am I a mindless conformist or lemming, as my name implies. For me, HD DVD is the correct HDM format to invest in. It has everything that I wanted in an HDM format from day one. For you, it is obviously Blu-Ray. Live and Let Live I say. I do not need to go running to the solace of movie downloads simply to heal any sort of emotional wounds, that you may think that I have. Not that it really matters, but for the record, I assure you that I am quite happy with my HDM format choices. I do watch and enjoy my HD DVDs almost every day. That being said, my comments were in regard to Joe's original posted opinions about where things, in this specific market, are surely going.
If you think that Blu-Ray (or HD DVD) will actually make a significant dent in the pre-recorded media distribution market, before another delivery medium displaces them, you must not be too familiar with the pace in which this industry moves.
This though process is fine, however, as the point of all of this is to enjoy your movies and your movie watching experience.
So as long as you and the rest of us can do that, regardless of the format, I think that we are in great shape!
Sorry, my Harry Potter HD DVD based internationally joined movie watching party, is remotely starting up the movie again over the HD DVD players integrated Internet connection. Gotta go now! Blu-Ray meh, you can keep it!
A few months ago I purchased a HD DVD player and got 10 free HD DVD's. I was totally behind this format and I was sure it was to win. I figured that people knew what HD meant and they knew what DVD meant so HD DVD just made sense - I mean what the hell is a Blu-Ray anyway. I was wrong. I'm not bitter because that is the nature of the game. It could have gone either way but ultimately it went the way of Blu-Ray. I figure by the time all this bullsh*t quiets down the prices of HD DVDs will go way down so you still have time to pick up so excellent looking movies at a lower cost. I won't be getting rid of my HD DVD player the same way I didn't get rid of my Laser Disc player, there is no reason to because they still play movies. It is a bit sad that it played out like this for me and many others that supported this format but that is just how it is. To all you Blu-Ray lovers saying "I told you so," you wouldn't be saying that if it worked out the other way... sh*t happens and people always end up getting burned!
Since HD DVD is dead, can we expect to see no more HD DVD reviews on The Whip?
I've been reading a lot about HD VOD and Download services.
The most viable option out there is XstreamHD. Head over to their website if you like. They actually tell you that to have the movie ready to view when you want, you have to order it before it is released.
"Before it is released."
Get your head around that one. How long do these downloads take????
They also admit that 2 TerraBytes of storage would be a "beginning" and talk about all the extra hard drives you'll have to add on to the thing.
I have no doubt that services like this WILL be the future, but when you actually see what they are offering the reality becomes clear. Downloads and HD VOD are a LONG way off.
They will have to be ready for MASS adoption, and be cheap. They can't be a complete re-wiring of your house like XstreamHD proposes.
Joe, I have to say this. Telling your readership to wait for Downloads is ridiculous. How can someone who loves HD seriously reccomend waiting for Blu-Ray to die.
SD is the past, and is already on it's way out. The real obstacle to overcome is people's ignorance and fear.
Please give Downloads another look and you'll realize how misguided such a prediction is. It is not ready. It is a pipe-dream. It is 10 to 15 years off.
This post of yours tells me you are bitter about the end of HD DVD and want to hurt Blu-Ray. Please give your comments further thought.
Thank-you
Joe Whipp: first you preached about HD DVD, now you suddenly preach about downloads?
You claim to own lots of HD movies and HD equipment, yet you tell other people to do use downloads. You preach one thing and do another thing yourself... something isn't right here.
Paid blogger perhaps?
Following the finest House tradition: Whip, you're an idiot. You're just too dumb to realise that fact.
CB
You can't compare an mp3 file to an HDM download, huge difference.
What about all the people without broadband? Many parts of the US and world do not even have broadband yet.
When downloading an HDM on the Xbox 360 it can take up to 3 hours depending on traffic. No one wants to wait that long when they want a movie.
I'd be more worried about the state of the internet handling such massive traffic. The internet as a whole needs to be reworked to route such traffic and offer more bandwidth at affordable prices.
You're going to clog the tubes!!
I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that downloaded movies will be quickly accepted by the public. It will be the future but I seriously doubt it's going to be so in 5 years. Blu-Ray will probably be the last successful hard media for movies before on-demand kicks off. However, it all depends on the consumers.
I was a big Blu-Ray supporter early on, but recently I've switched to HD-DVD. Blu-Ray movies, as you might expect from a company like Sony, have region-coding and that's a bummer, especially since HD-DVD does NOT. Who wants region-coding with your HD? Not me.
So the good guys lose, looks like.
Universal and Paramount are still HD DVD exclusive. What happend to the prediction!!!
HD downloads are already here!!! Comcast's Video-On-Demand has been offering movies in HD on demand for several months here in Florida. Their movie selection grows every week. There are occasionally some bugs that need to be to worked out, (occasional digital interference) but this will work itself out as bandwith is increased. The HD movies are currently in 1080i with 5.1 Dolby Digital sound. (Blu-Ray is 1080p & 7.1 Channel capable.) My display is only 1080i anyway, so it isn't a big deal to me. Anybody notice that Blockbuster is closing stores by the hundreds!? The writing is on the wall - and has been for some time. Whatever the format may be, (DVD, BluRay, HDDVD, Flash Media, etc.) why should we store media that we are only going to use a few number of times (I'm refering to movies, unlike music that we listen to over and over.) if we can get it on demand from a cable provider or internet retailer for a fraction of the price!? The icing on the cake for the studios is that they make more money this way. The DVD rental industry's days are numbered. Companies like Netflix and now Blockbuster are finding ways to avoid leasing high priced retail space by using avenues such as the USPS to deliver movies. Soon, as high bandwith broadband internet access becomes another regular household utility, they will be forced to resort to digital delivery to stay competetive as the cable companies have already pioneered with pay-per-view and now on-demand services. The cable companies are in a great position right now. They already have the infrastructure to deliver what is coming. Even the local phone companies are running scared because of what the cable companies broadband infrastructure has to offer. I think we will be surprised at how quickly digital delivery will catch on. Look what email did for communication and what the MP3 format did for music. Like it or not, change is coming.
Rant, Rant, Rant.... Cry, Cry, Cry....
I have both players and am enjoying all my movies in beautiful HD quality while everyone keeps whining about the format wars.... If ya can't afford it... don't bitch about it... The HD-DVD player was a whopping $150 and the free movies that came with it were enough to justify the cost.... Can almost say the same for the PS3 and the 7 movies that came with it..... Call me in 10 years when you are finally cought up waiting on downloads to catch on kiddies... LOL
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