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 Swanni's 2011 TV Predictions, Part I By Swanni Washington, D.C. (December 29, 2010) -- Okay, now that I have confessed that my TV predictions for 2010 resulted in a few strike outs -- and some home runs and extra base hits, I think it's time to issue my forecast for 2011. (My first prediction is that I will never again write a lead paragraph with so many qualifiers and compound statements as the one that precedes this story; oh, well, just killed that prediction.) My predictions for 2011, which will be published over the next three days, will cover a number of subjects, from which TV provider will be the 'HD leader' to whether 3D TV makers will stop making 3D sets to whether Net TV streaming videos will surpass the Blu-ray high-def disc. I will also touch on some merger rumors and how the federal government plans (or doesn't plan) to intervene in some industry squabbles, among other issues. So, let's get started. Today, I will post my first 10 TV predictions for 2011; and tomorrow and Friday, there will be more. How many more? We'll see -- that damn Northeastern blizzard fogged up my crystal ball a bit.  Prediction #1 -- DIRECTV Will Drop Some HD Channels; And Add Some. In 2007-2008, DIRECTV was all about adding HD channels; dropping them was out of the question. With more Americans buying HDTVs, the satcaster was in a competition with rival Dish Network and others for the title of 'Which TV Provider Offers the Most HD Channels.' However, the economic slowdown of 2008-2010 has changed everything. Now DIRECTV, like many other companies, is trying to save money where possible and, consequently, is reluctant to pay programmers higher fees to carry their channels. So, in 2011, you'll see DIRECTV drop as many as 5-10 HD channels due to fee fights; however, DIRECTV will likely eventually replace them with HD networks that offer better terms. This will allow DIRECTV to appear that it still cares about boosting the value of its HD lineup. Prediction #2 -- Comcast Will Become the 'HD Leader' (In some markets.) With its new Xfinity service, Comcast has promised that it will dramatically expand its HD lineup next year. For starters, the cable operator recently boosted its HD channel count in the Philly area to 150. Look for Comcast to offer 150-plus HD channels in more markets in 2011, surpassing DIRECTV, Verizon and Dish in the overall HD channel count. However, in some mid-size and small markets, Comcast will continue to lag behind their rivals in HD channels. The cable operator has been woefully slow in adding HD channels in smaller cities, with some viewers still getting less than 50.  Prediction #3 -- 3D TV Makers Will Slash Prices; Add Bundles The 3D TV industry is backed into a corner. Despite the industry's enormous investment in 3D sets, movie theaters and related equipment, consumers have voted with their dollars that they are not that interested in the new technology. Consequently, 3D TV makers in 2011 will have to all but give the sets away; prices will be slashed by 25-30 percent or more; 2-4, free 3D goggles -- and a free 3D Blu-ray player -- will be packaged as a bundle with 3D sets. The extra inducements will help sales somewhat, but not enough to generate any momentum for the category. Let's face it, 3D = 3DOA. It's just a matter of time before the industry announces the time of death. Prediction #4 -- 3D Blu-ray Player Sales Will Bomb A recent NPD study found that 15 percent of Blu-ray players sold during Black Friday week were 3D units. The research firm suggested the numbers indicated that consumers may be interested in buying a 3D TV at a later time. Hogwash. Trust me, folks, I guarantee you that many of those 3D Blu-ray buyers believed that they could get 3D on their home (non-3D) TVs by simply connecting them to the 3D Blu-ray player. Sounds crazy? It's not. People are constantly being confused by new technology; if they see a Blu-ray player that says it will playback in 3D, why wouldn't they think it would play 3D at their home -- even if they didn't have a 3D set? Once consumers realize that 3D Blu-ray players require a 3D set, sales will tank.  Prediction #5 -- DIRECTV Will Launch a Wireless HD DVR DIRECTV is desperate to boost its Video on Demand orders. However, the satcaster's VOD service requires the subscriber's set-top to be connected to the Internet, something few subscribers have done. (The set-top has to be connected directly to the Internet connection, or hooked up to a separate wireless adapter.) DIRECTV has openly discussed offering a free service to come to customers' homes and helping them connect their set-tops to the Net. That's a good idea. But if DIRECTV would simply launch an HD DVR set-top that has a wireless feature, more subscribers would find it easier to make the Internet connection. (Similar wireless features can be found on Blu-ray players.) I think they will do it. Prediction #6 -- Washington Will Not Get Involved In Carriage Fights In 2010, subscribers of DIRECTV, Dish Network, Cablevision and others lost some of their favorite channels because their providers could not reach new programming pacts with channels' owners. During the fee fights, congressmen and FCC officials expressed their dismay at the impasses and promised to do something about in the future. Well, don't hold your breath, folks. Politicians are politicians. They love to talk an issue to death, but they won't act unless the public demand is so overwhelming that they are forced to (or they have received a considerable amount of PAC contributions.) So long as the carriage fights are isolate and spread out -- one every two months or so -- it will be easy for the pols to ignore the battles. Prediction #7 -- Sales of Net TV Video Players Will Boom One of biggest stories of 2010 was the emergence of the Net TV player (Blu-ray, Roku, Apple TV, etc.). The unit will stream videos from the Net directly to your TV, removing the need to make that trip to your neighborhood video store. While the media has over-hyped Net TV sales, they did improve this year and I predict they will do even better in 2011. The reason: Many consumers are interested in watching streaming services such as Netflix on their TVs, but until now, they have been intimidated by the technical requirements to do so. In 2011, however, I think more people will make a special effort to get their TVs connected to the Net, whether it's via a Net TV player or a Net-enabled TV. (This is not to say that millions and millions of people will do it; contrary to what Silicon Valley thinks, this is not a tech-savvy nation. People are still intimidated by technology.) But the added convenience (and entertainment) provided by Net TV players will compel more people to check it out.  Prediction #8 -- Sales of Blu-ray Players Will Boom, Too Recent studies show that more than 20 million U.S. homes now have at least one Blu-ray player. HDTV owners have come to realize that the Blu-ray high-def disc offers the best picture on the market, bar none. But in 2011, consumers will also be attracted to Blu-ray players that offer video and music streaming from services such as Netflix, Vudu and Pandora. This additional feature will solidify the Blu-ray player as the logical replacement to the DVD player in America. Prediction #9 -- Plasma HDTV Sales Will Keep Rising, Threaten LCD The LCD has been tops in overall set sales for a few years now, easily defeating rival Plasma. However, in 2010, we started to see the gap narrow as more people came to realize that Plasma's picture is (generally) better than the LCD picture. Additionally, Plasma makers lowered their prices, making the set even more attractive to recession-weary shoppers. Look for Plasma's momentum to continue in 2011 -- and the model may even start to threaten LCD as the number one TV category. Prediction #10 -- TiVo and Dish Network Will Get Married, Finally The two companies have been battling over a DVR patent dispute now for more than four years. TiVo, which claims Dish has violated its patent, has won the lion's share of court verdicts, but Dish has been able to keep the case alive by appealing and appealing. In 2011, I predict the battle will finally come to an end with Dish agreeing to buy TiVo and installing its software in future Dish set-tops. See Part Two of Swanni's 2011 TV Predictions! See hot deals below on Net-connected TV devices:
© TVPredictions.com ______________________________________________________ Phillip Swann is president and publisher of TVPredictions.com. He has been quoted in dozens of publications and broadcast outlets, including CNN, Fox News, Inside Edition, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune, The Financial Times, The Associated Press and The Hollywood Reporter. He can be reached at swann@tvpredictions.com or at 703-505-3064. Click TVPredictions.com to read more news and features on TV technology. |
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