ABI Research: Wrong Again On Blu-ray
The research industry doesn't have a good track record on high-def.
By Swanni
"We believe that universal players will come to dominate the High-Definition DVD player market," said Steve Wilson, ABI's principal analyst of consumer electronics.
ABI, a research company based in New York, forecast the sale of 2.4 million dual format players in 2007, rising to a whopping 55 million in 2011.
On January 24, 2007, this is what I wrote here at TVPredictions.com in response to ABI's report:
"ABI's forecast is way too optimistic. At $1199, the LG player is cost prohibitive for most Americans and it's unlikely that the price will fall 'dramatically' for a few years at least. And when prices actually reach the $200 level, the marketplace may have already determined a winner in the format war, which would make the dual player all but obsolete."
Of course, the dual-format HDTV DVD player is now a clearance item at online commerce sites, failing to ever generate serious sales.
I bring this information to your attention because ABI has done it again. The company today issued a press release saying that it will be 12-18 months before Blu-ray "kicks into gear."
"Consumer electronics manufacturers need to introduce full-featured (Blu-ray) players and then get prices down to the $200 level," ABI said. "Until then, non-HDTV owners will certainly favor standard definition DVD players."
Folks, the Blu-ray industry is already "kicking into gear" with sales up 351 percent in the first quarter of 2008. Millions of consumers who were waiting for an end to the format war are now contemplating buying a Blu-ray player.
Additionally, Blu-ray player prices will likely approach the $200 level this holiday season, which will give the high-def disc format another major sales boost.
While I agree that Blu-ray is years away from replacing the standard-def DVD, the process has begun.
Like other research firms such as Screen Digest and Adams Media Research (both of whom predicted in 2007 that both Blu-ray and HD DVD would be around for years; I predicted in 2006 that Blu-ray would win the format war relatively quickly), ABI doesn't have a strong track record of forecasting the high-def disc industry.
You might want to keep that in mind when you need guidance on this industry.
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Swanni (Phillip Swann) is president and publisher of
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