Washington (March 21, 2007) --
Apple has finally begun
shipping pre-orders of its Apple TV wireless set-top,
according to news reports. The device can stream media
stored on your PC to your TV including music, pictures
and 720p High-Definition video.
The company has set the price at $299, but I'm here to tell you that it will ultimately have trouble giving them away.
Yes, Apple TV will bomb -- and here's why:
1. Limited Uses
Apple TV can not receive or record cable or satellite signals, meaning it can not deliver the programming that 85 percent of Americans watch every night. The set-top also does not operate as a DVD player, which people are watching when they are not watching cable or satellite.
Now, you might argue that Apple can sell $1.99 episodes of cable or satellite programming, but thus far, the company has not been able to do that successfully on iTunes (or via the video iPod.) TV viewers have not demonstrated that they will pay for programs that could have been watched for free on broadcast networks or recorded for free on their DVRs when they originally aired.
The company has set the price at $299, but I'm here to tell you that it will ultimately have trouble giving them away.
Yes, Apple TV will bomb -- and here's why:
1. Limited Uses
Apple TV can not receive or record cable or satellite signals, meaning it can not deliver the programming that 85 percent of Americans watch every night. The set-top also does not operate as a DVD player, which people are watching when they are not watching cable or satellite.
Now, you might argue that Apple can sell $1.99 episodes of cable or satellite programming, but thus far, the company has not been able to do that successfully on iTunes (or via the video iPod.) TV viewers have not demonstrated that they will pay for programs that could have been watched for free on broadcast networks or recorded for free on their DVRs when they originally aired.
___________________________________________
____________________________________________
2. Set-Top Fatigue
Americans are tired of buying set-tops for TV-based purposes. They already have a DVD player; a cable and/or satellite set-top; possibly a standalone TiVo DVR and/or DVD recorder; a video game console; and in some cases, a Audio/Video receiver connected to their TVs.
And now Apple is telling them to get another box so they can stream videos, music and photos from their PCs?
Fat chance -- even if the set-top will send the signals wirelessly; Americans have set-top fatigue.
3. Compatibility & Confusion
The device is set for a widescreen so it will not work with most older analog sets. But even more damaging, the device's concept is too confusing for most Americans. Buy a set-top that will sit in the corner and send files to my TV? Do you really see a large number of people in this country actually doing that? Come on, the Media Center PC, which the Apple TV emulates, has not taken off so why should Apple TV? Despite what some might think, this is not a tech-savvy nation.
4. Inconvenient
Apple TV requires you to download your content to your computer before you can send it to your TV. In other words, if you want to watch a music video from iTunes, you must first purchase it online, then download it, then store it on your Apple TV and then transmit it to your television. Sound like fun?
So, although the tech-intelligentsia will slobber over Apple TV and call it the Second Coming, Apple TV will fail to reach beyond the cultish Mac audience, probably topping off at about three million homes.
Do you agree? Disagree? Let's hear from you!
Comment on this article!
Click TVPredictions.com to see today's Swanni Sez.
© TVPredictions.com
____________________________________________
____________________________________________
2. Set-Top Fatigue
Americans are tired of buying set-tops for TV-based purposes. They already have a DVD player; a cable and/or satellite set-top; possibly a standalone TiVo DVR and/or DVD recorder; a video game console; and in some cases, a Audio/Video receiver connected to their TVs.
And now Apple is telling them to get another box so they can stream videos, music and photos from their PCs?
Fat chance -- even if the set-top will send the signals wirelessly; Americans have set-top fatigue.
3. Compatibility & Confusion
The device is set for a widescreen so it will not work with most older analog sets. But even more damaging, the device's concept is too confusing for most Americans. Buy a set-top that will sit in the corner and send files to my TV? Do you really see a large number of people in this country actually doing that? Come on, the Media Center PC, which the Apple TV emulates, has not taken off so why should Apple TV? Despite what some might think, this is not a tech-savvy nation.
4. Inconvenient
Apple TV requires you to download your content to your computer before you can send it to your TV. In other words, if you want to watch a music video from iTunes, you must first purchase it online, then download it, then store it on your Apple TV and then transmit it to your television. Sound like fun?
So, although the tech-intelligentsia will slobber over Apple TV and call it the Second Coming, Apple TV will fail to reach beyond the cultish Mac audience, probably topping off at about three million homes.
Do you agree? Disagree? Let's hear from you!
Comment on this article!
Click TVPredictions.com to see today's Swanni Sez.
© TVPredictions.com
____________________________________________
Phillip Swann is president and publisher of
TVPredictions.com. He has been quoted in dozens of
publications and broadcast outlets, including CNN,
Fox News, Inside Edition, The New York Times, The
Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune, The Financial
Times, The Associated Press and The Hollywood
Reporter. He can be reached at
swann@tvpredictions.com
or at 703-505-3064.
Click
TVPredictions.com
to read more news and features
on TV technology.