Ask Swanni: Special CES Edition!

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Ask Swanni: Special CES Edition!
In a new edition of "Ask Swanni," your humble high-def guru answers your questions.
By Phillip Swann

Washington, D.C. (January 11, 2007) -- I get scores of e-mails every week from readers asking everything from whether they should buy a new HDTV to when will their TV provider add new high-def channels.

But this week, my e-mail in-box has been overflowing with questions about the big announcements at this week's Consumer Electronics Show.

So, in a special edition of 'Ask Swanni,' here are the answers to your questions.

Q. Why don't you think the new Apple TV will be a success? I would love to watch Net videos on my HDTV. -- Barbara P.
I think that millions of Americans will one day routinely watch Net-based videos on their TVs. But Apple's new set-top is too complicated for the average consumer. The device, which ships next month, uses a wireless router and will also likely require significant time to send each media file from the PC to the TV. It's not like you will be able to just hit a button and watch a movie download on your TV a few seconds later. No, Internet TV will be successful when it's part of an established cable, satellite or telco TV service -- or via a Broadband connection in the TV itself; not as a separate set-top.

Q. Why didn't EchoStar announce any new HDTV channels at CES? -- Frank R.
EchoStar now carries 30 national HDTV channels, more than any other TV provider. Although DIRECTV promised at CES this week to offer 100 HD channels by year's end, I think EchoStar is comfortable with its current advantage.

Q. Why didn't the cable operators make a bunch of announcements at CES this week? -- Aaron L.
That's a good question. The CE show traditionally is a showcase for retail-based companies, such as TV makers, satellite providers and other companies that sell tech-based products in stores.

Q. Do you think TiVo's HD DVR service will be a success on Comcast? -- John H.
It will depend much on pricing. Comcast this week said it will add TiVo this spring for all programming, including high-def. However, it did not reveal TiVo's service fee, other than to say it would be "modest." If the cable operator charges $10 or more per month for TiVo, I think it will fail to generate many subscribers.

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Q. What do you make of this adult film studio turning its back on Blu-ray and supporting HD-DVD? Could this be the tipping point in the format war? -- George P.
Adult film studio Digital Playground said this week that it would release titles on HD-DVD after saying last year that it would back Blu-ray exclusively. However, I don't think the move reflects the attitude of the entire adult film industry. Vivid Entertainment, for example, is expected to release its first film on Blu-ray this spring.

Q. Do you know what DIRECTV will charge for all those HDTV channels? -- Catherine P.
DIRECTV said this week that it would offer 100 national HDTV channels by year's end, but it did not discuss pricing structure. However, in my 2007 predictions for HDTV, I forecast that TV providers this year would begin offering high-def channels in pricing tiers. For example, 40 HD channels could be $20; 60 could be $30; and so on. With a 100-channel lineup, DIRECTV would be a logical candidate to implement a pricing tier.

Q. I read that Cox's president said that every subscriber would be a HDTV owner in three years. Is that possible? -- Harvey S.
Actually, Cox Communications president Patrick Esser said this week at the show that 70 percent of his cable subscribers will be watching high-def in three years. That's still pretty impressive, if it happens.

Q. CNN in HDTV? Do you really think that old Larry King will stand for that? -- Donald B.
CNN is launching its high-def channel in September so they have plenty of time to buy new HD camera filters.

Q. Why doesn't the FCC or somebody in Washington step in and stop these silly fights between local stations and cable operators over HD channels? -- Cathy K.
In many cities, local stations are not permitting cable and/or satellite operators to carry their high-def signals because they believe they should be paid for them. There's no question that the impasse is hurting the HDTV industry. But the FCC and Congress could care less if you watch high-def or not. The only thing they care about is ensuring that all local stations broadcast in digital by February 17, 2009, the date for the nation's switch from analog to digital. They are not interested in how you get those digital signals. If your cable operator doesn't carry them, they will respond: Go get an antenna.

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Phillip Swann is president and publisher of TVPredictions.com. He has been quoted in dozens of publications and broadcast outlets, including CNN, Fox News, Inside Edition, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune, The Financial Times, The Associated Press and The Hollywood Reporter. He can be reached at swann@tvpredictions.com or at 703-505-3064.

Click TVPredictions.com to read more news and features on TV technology.

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