News Analysis
6 Predictions for 2011 Black Friday!

By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (September 13, 2011) -- In roughly 10 weeks, Americans will crowd into retail stores looking for 'Black Friday' bargains on everything from appliances to apparel.

Retailers traditionally offer deep discounts on the day after Thanksgiving (Nov. 25), better known as Black Friday, the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season.

The discount prices are often available for one day only -- and may include restrictions on time and supply. Discount hunters also have to contend with the frenzied atmosphere of Black Friday which some shoppers view as a day of combat.

But here at TVPredictions.com, we believe in keeping our readers ahead of the game with forecasts and analysis that tell you what will happen before it actually does.

So with that in mind, here are six predictions on discounts you will see on TV-related items this Black Friday -- and how retailers and TV makers will market the event to consumers.

1. LCD Prices Will Be The Lowest Ever
Recent studies have shown that LCD TV shipments have reached their lowest level in years. Due to the sluggish economy and overflowing inventory already at retail, LCD TV makers have concluded that set sales will be flat for some time.

Consequently, you can expect LCD makers to offer some deep discounts on LCD HDTVs during the 2011 holiday shopping season in an effort to clear out the current inventory and put the industry in position to have a strong 2012.

How deep will be those discounts?

I think you will see name-brand 40-inch LCD HDTVs available for $299;
42-inch LCD HDTVs will be sold for under $400 and 47-inch sets will go for under $500. Moving up the ladder, larger-screen 3D LCD and LED HDTVs will be discounted by up to 50 percent and they will come in attractive bundles (free 3D goggles included with some sales; 3D movies included as well.)

2. 3D TV Prices Will Drop Like a Rock
I won't bore you (again) with my thoughts on why 3D TV sales have not taken off. Let's just acknowledge that they haven't and move on, okay?

Okay. So what will 3D TV makers do to get Black Friday shoppers excited about buying 3D sets? Slash prices. Yes, you'll see current model 3D TVs discounted by 25-35 percent and the offer will include such bundled items as a free extra pair of 3D goggles.

Like the LCD makers, 3D TV companies need to clear out some inventory so they can concentrate on selling new models in 2012, likely Smart TVs rather than 3D sets. So I think you'll see 55-inch name-brand 3D LED/LCD HDTVs available for as little as $1,299 (some now cost closer to $2,000.)

3. Some Retail Stores Will Kick Off Black Friday Early
Like last year, you'll see some retail stores, such as Target and Best Buy, launch some early 'Black Friday' sales in October and early November. The idea is to get consumers in the shopping mood before the full-scale Black Friday on the day after Thanksgiving.

4. Plasma 720p HDTVs Will Be the Best Bargains
Although TV makers now manufacture 1080p sets almost exclusively, there are still plenty of 720p sets sitting on shelves at retail -- and the warehouse shelves of ecommerce web sites. The TV companies would like to get these sets out of the market once and for all (the 720p Plasmas are priced cheaper) so expect some great deals on 720p Plasma sets. For instance, 42-inch 720p Plasma sets will likely be available for under $300 while some larger screen sets will carry 40-50 percent discounts.

5. There Will Be Big Discounts on Network Blu-ray Players
CE companies are anxious to get consumers to buy the new 'Smart TV' Blu-ray players which enable users to access streaming services such as Netflix over home networks. The Network Blu-ray player brings in more revenue to the CE company than the traditional Blu-ray player because the company can strike partnership deals with firms such as Netflix.

However, many Americans are still reluctant to buy the Network Blu-ray players because they seem too confusing or technically imposing. Consequently, I predict that CE companies will offer some network Blu-ray players for as little as $69 this Black Friday and perhaps lower. At those prices, reluctant consumers will be more likely to take a chance.

The no-frills Blu-ray player will also be had for under $50 and I predict that some enterprising retailer will sell one for $39.

6. Online Sites Will Get More Aggressive in Pricing
For several years, brick-and-mortar retailers had Black Friday while ecommerce sites had Cyber Monday, the online Black Friday equivalent that takes place three days later. There wasn't too much competition between the two in terms of setting prices and comparison marketing.

However, the tough times have changed everything. Look for ecommerce sites such as Amazon to start slashing prices on TV-related items (and other products) this month and even more so in October. In fact, we're already seeing some evidence of that at Amazon where many TVs are now being priced for 40 percent off the list price.

The online sites, which have increased their holiday revenue every year over the last 10 years or so, want consumers to think of buying online first. So they will try to get them early with attractive offerings before the brick-and-mortar retailers even roll out their first Sunday circular.