News Analysis
Blu-ray Will Defeat Digital Downloads
But some analysts are predicting that consumers will soon switch from hard discs to Net-based services.
By Swanni
Blu-ray Will Defeat Digital Downloads
But some analysts are predicting that consumers will soon switch from hard discs to Net-based services.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (February 20, 2008) -- Now that Blu-ray has finally conquered HD DVD in the high-def disc format battle, its supporters apparently have little time to celebrate.
Many leading industry analysts and other pundits are already predicting that digital downloads will soon wipe out Blu-ray and other hard media.
"The format battle often drew yawns from analysts and consumers. Many believe the new disc format will be leapfrogged quickly by Internet-based movie downloads, just as music discs have been increasingly replaced by digital files," The New York Times wrote today.
Companies such as Apple, Microsoft, TiVo, NetFlix and Vudu have (or plan to) launched set-tops enabling consumers to download movies directly to their TVs over high-speed Internet connections.
The new services have been the subject of considerable media buzz. Several technology-based publications have questioned why people would buy or rent a high-def disc when they can download it at home.
Well, as often is the case, the tech media is wrong, basing its assumption on how other tekkies think rather than what the average American thinks.
It will be years -- yes, years -- before downloads replace hard discs (be it Blu-ray or standard-def DVDs) and here's why:
Despite what many technology officials believe, America is not a tech-savvy nation. The old joke in the 1990s about the flashing "12:00" on the living room VCR was funny because people knew it to be true.
Sure, a large percentage of people use Blackberries, iPods and other gadgets. But it took awhile for those products to reach a sizable audience. Americans like to sneak up on new tech products, allowing early adopters to work out the kinks. The strategy is a good one; 3-5 years after a new product is launched, manufacturers have usually made it simpler to use, not to mention much less expensive.
Additionally, many Americans are fearful of embracing any new technology, particularly if its purpose is not intuitively clear. I call this the "next door neighbor" group; they won't try a new product unless they see the next door neighbor use it -- and rave about it.
So here comes digital downloads.
For starters, in most cases, downloading movies onto the TV requires the consumer to buy a brand new set-top. That's a deal killer for many Americans who are suffering from set-top fatigue. They are tired of stacking box after box next to their televisions -- not to mention paying for them.
The "set-top fatigue" problem has also contributed to the slow growth of the high-def disc players, although the format war was a bigger contributor.
(The Blu-ray player, however, has a better chance of overcoming set-top fatigue than a download set-top because it's so similar to the standard-def DVD player, which scores of millions already own and feel comfortable with. Still, I predict that Blu-ray sales won't really take off until people start to replace their standard-def DVD players with Blu-ray players, rather than buying one as a companion box.)
Second, digital downloads require installing a high-speed Internet connection and/or adapter equipment to the TV. Broadband use in America is increasing rapidly, but studies have shown that most people are still using high-speed lines at home for the basics such as Internet browsing.
There isn't a lot of appetite yet for using Broadband for more exotic services -- particularly digital download features that offer movies that can already be retrieved from most cable On Demand menus with just a few clicks of the remote.
And third, have you see the picture from a digital download? The standard-def download is not up to the quality of a standard-def DVD. And the "high-def" download is not even really HD; it's closer to what you would see from a DVD "upconverter" player. (To make matters worse, it usually takes hours to download a high-def movie.)
So, digital downloads require:
Buying a new set-top, installing new equipment for the Net connection -- and when watching a high-def movie -- waiting hours for the download to complete.
And what do you get for your trouble?
A sub-par picture.
Meanwhile, the Blu-ray player requires:
Buying a new set-top -- and that's it.
And what do you get for that effort?
A crystal-clear, eye-popping real HD picture. And you won't have to wait for hours to watch it.
So, the Blu-ray industry is a long way from becoming a living room standard. But the real obstacle in its path is the standard-def DVD player, not digital downloads.
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Many leading industry analysts and other pundits are already predicting that digital downloads will soon wipe out Blu-ray and other hard media.
"The format battle often drew yawns from analysts and consumers. Many believe the new disc format will be leapfrogged quickly by Internet-based movie downloads, just as music discs have been increasingly replaced by digital files," The New York Times wrote today.
Companies such as Apple, Microsoft, TiVo, NetFlix and Vudu have (or plan to) launched set-tops enabling consumers to download movies directly to their TVs over high-speed Internet connections.
The new services have been the subject of considerable media buzz. Several technology-based publications have questioned why people would buy or rent a high-def disc when they can download it at home.
Well, as often is the case, the tech media is wrong, basing its assumption on how other tekkies think rather than what the average American thinks.
It will be years -- yes, years -- before downloads replace hard discs (be it Blu-ray or standard-def DVDs) and here's why:
Despite what many technology officials believe, America is not a tech-savvy nation. The old joke in the 1990s about the flashing "12:00" on the living room VCR was funny because people knew it to be true.
Sure, a large percentage of people use Blackberries, iPods and other gadgets. But it took awhile for those products to reach a sizable audience. Americans like to sneak up on new tech products, allowing early adopters to work out the kinks. The strategy is a good one; 3-5 years after a new product is launched, manufacturers have usually made it simpler to use, not to mention much less expensive.
Additionally, many Americans are fearful of embracing any new technology, particularly if its purpose is not intuitively clear. I call this the "next door neighbor" group; they won't try a new product unless they see the next door neighbor use it -- and rave about it.
So here comes digital downloads.
For starters, in most cases, downloading movies onto the TV requires the consumer to buy a brand new set-top. That's a deal killer for many Americans who are suffering from set-top fatigue. They are tired of stacking box after box next to their televisions -- not to mention paying for them.
The "set-top fatigue" problem has also contributed to the slow growth of the high-def disc players, although the format war was a bigger contributor.
(The Blu-ray player, however, has a better chance of overcoming set-top fatigue than a download set-top because it's so similar to the standard-def DVD player, which scores of millions already own and feel comfortable with. Still, I predict that Blu-ray sales won't really take off until people start to replace their standard-def DVD players with Blu-ray players, rather than buying one as a companion box.)
Second, digital downloads require installing a high-speed Internet connection and/or adapter equipment to the TV. Broadband use in America is increasing rapidly, but studies have shown that most people are still using high-speed lines at home for the basics such as Internet browsing.
There isn't a lot of appetite yet for using Broadband for more exotic services -- particularly digital download features that offer movies that can already be retrieved from most cable On Demand menus with just a few clicks of the remote.
And third, have you see the picture from a digital download? The standard-def download is not up to the quality of a standard-def DVD. And the "high-def" download is not even really HD; it's closer to what you would see from a DVD "upconverter" player. (To make matters worse, it usually takes hours to download a high-def movie.)
So, digital downloads require:
Buying a new set-top, installing new equipment for the Net connection -- and when watching a high-def movie -- waiting hours for the download to complete.
And what do you get for your trouble?
A sub-par picture.
Meanwhile, the Blu-ray player requires:
Buying a new set-top -- and that's it.
And what do you get for that effort?
A crystal-clear, eye-popping real HD picture. And you won't have to wait for hours to watch it.
So, the Blu-ray industry is a long way from becoming a living room standard. But the real obstacle in its path is the standard-def DVD player, not digital downloads.
Comment on this article!
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