Washington, D.C. (October 20, 2008) -- Some analysts are predicting that the U.S. economic slump will kill Blu-ray player sales in the fourth quarter and perhaps beyond. For instance, Roger Kay, president of Endpoint Technologies Associates, is forecasting a "dramatic" drop in Blu-ray sales.
But Kay and his fellow doomsayers are ignoring what's taking place in the marketplace. Blu-ray player prices are dropping fast with several models now available at retail and online for under $250.
Additionally, I predict that some Blu-ray players will be available for $129-149 by Christmas, just a few dollars more than your average standard-def DVD player. At those prices, high-def owners, who have more disposable dollars than the average consumer, will find the Blu-ray player all but irresistible.
But analysts who are calling for Blu-ray's demise are banking that consumers will suddenly find new Net-based video services irresistible. They believe -- somehow -- that millions of Americans will rush to the store to, no, not buy a Blu-ray player, but buy a different set-top that delivers movies over the Net.
Of course, this contradicts their argument that the economy will hurt Blu-ray sales. If consumers don't have the money for Blu-ray, they won't have the money for those Net-enabled set-tops, either, from companies such as Apple, Netflix and Vudu.
"If you can get movies over the wire on demand and have an entire library at your disposal on the screen a la Netflix, that's the way you're going to go," Kay told the San Francisco Chronicle, apparently referring to Netflix's new set-top partnership with LG Electronics.
Some analysts, though, are saying that consumers will simply order films from On Demand services on cable and satellite. But they seem to ignore that satellite's On Demand service (at least from DIRECTV) requires a high-speed Broadband connection that's more trouble to connect that it's worth.
Cable's On Demand service is much easier to use and has plenty of HD titles to choose from -- if you happen to be a subscriber to a major cable service. Many smaller cable operators' On Demand lineup pales in comparison to the majors.
So, in the view of this analyst, Blu-ray will have a strong holiday season, perhaps even stronger than previously anticipated because the tough economy will force retailers and Blu-ray makers to lower prices earlier than planned on players and movie titles.
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But Kay and his fellow doomsayers are ignoring what's taking place in the marketplace. Blu-ray player prices are dropping fast with several models now available at retail and online for under $250.
Additionally, I predict that some Blu-ray players will be available for $129-149 by Christmas, just a few dollars more than your average standard-def DVD player. At those prices, high-def owners, who have more disposable dollars than the average consumer, will find the Blu-ray player all but irresistible.
But analysts who are calling for Blu-ray's demise are banking that consumers will suddenly find new Net-based video services irresistible. They believe -- somehow -- that millions of Americans will rush to the store to, no, not buy a Blu-ray player, but buy a different set-top that delivers movies over the Net.
Of course, this contradicts their argument that the economy will hurt Blu-ray sales. If consumers don't have the money for Blu-ray, they won't have the money for those Net-enabled set-tops, either, from companies such as Apple, Netflix and Vudu.
"If you can get movies over the wire on demand and have an entire library at your disposal on the screen a la Netflix, that's the way you're going to go," Kay told the San Francisco Chronicle, apparently referring to Netflix's new set-top partnership with LG Electronics.
Some analysts, though, are saying that consumers will simply order films from On Demand services on cable and satellite. But they seem to ignore that satellite's On Demand service (at least from DIRECTV) requires a high-speed Broadband connection that's more trouble to connect that it's worth.
Cable's On Demand service is much easier to use and has plenty of HD titles to choose from -- if you happen to be a subscriber to a major cable service. Many smaller cable operators' On Demand lineup pales in comparison to the majors.
So, in the view of this analyst, Blu-ray will have a strong holiday season, perhaps even stronger than previously anticipated because the tough economy will force retailers and Blu-ray makers to lower prices earlier than planned on players and movie titles.
Comment on this article!
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