Washington, D.C. (November 1, 2007) -- Let's be clear about something. Despite all the protestations from HD DVD supporters, Blu-ray is currently winning the high-def disc format war.

Over the last year, Blu-ray disc sales have outpaced HD DVD by a 2-1 margin. And thanks to the Play Station 3, which has a Blu-ray player inside, Blu-ray has a sizable lead in home penetration.

If this was a boxing match, it would be the beginning of the seventh round with Blu-ray up four rounds to two. No knockdowns yet, but a clear lead for the Sony-supported format.



The Toshiba HD-A2.

However, the Blu-ray forces are about to take a beating -- unless they change course and soon. And here's why:

Wal-Mart this Friday will sell the Toshiba HD-A2 HD DVD player for $98 as a special pre "Black Friday" sale. The announcement comes after Amazon.com, Circuit City and Wal-Mart revealed they would sell the player for $198 during non-promotional periods.

Even at $198, the entry-level HD DVD player is now $300 less than the lowest-priced Blu-ray player, the Sony BDP-S300. Again, using the boxing analog, that's a haymaker left hook aimed right at Blu-ray's head.

However, other than launching a new $399 Play Station 3 later this month, Sony and its Blu-ray colleagues are not counterpunching or even putting up much of a defense. There is no serious talk of a lower-priced Blu-ray player, certainly not one that would approach the $198 Toshiba.

With the holidays rapidly approaching, Blu-ray is leaving itself open to a potential knockout punch. If Toshiba can sell a bunch of low-priced HD-A2s,  Warner Home Video might reconsider its tilt toward Blu-ray and endorse HD DVD instead.

And if that occurs, you might see another studio follow suit.

Blu-ray now has four major studios supporting it exclusively with only two backing HD DVD exclusively. It's the reason why Blu-ray is winning.

But unless Blu-ray supporters lower player prices -- and soon -- the studios could be the reason that the format ultimately loses.

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Swanni (Phillip Swann) is president and publisher of TVPredictions.com. He has been quoted in dozens of publications and broadcast outlets, including CNN, Fox News, Inside Edition, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune, The Financial Times, The Associated Press and The Hollywood Reporter. He can be reached at swann@tvpredictions.com or at 703-505-3064.

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