Washington, D.C. (February 29, 2008) -- Sony, the leading supporter of Blu-ray, has said the new high-def disc will replace the standard-def DVD in the next several years.

Is that possible? After all, standard-def DVD players are in nearly every American home and many people have built up impressive collections of DVD film libraries.

However, now that Toshiba has pulled the plug on HD DVD, it's my view that Blu-ray has an opportunity to become the leading home video format.

So, how can Blu-ray replace the DVD? Here are five steps:


1. Lower Player Prices to Under $200
Blu-ray players now start at $399, which is $300 more than many standard-def DVD players. That's way too high. By the 2008 holiday season, Blu-ray players have to be under $200, preferably around $149. That might require the Blu-ray manufacturers to shave some profits, but it's necessary to attract the masses.

2. Release Some Movies In Blu-ray Only
At some point, the studios will have to start releasing some titles only in Blu-ray. This will encourage people to buy Blu-ray players to see their favorite new releases. Sony, which has its own studio, would be the logical one to begin, perhaps releasing a few movies this holiday season in Blu-only. Then, in 2009, a few other studios could join in.

We're not talking about a bunch of titles going Blu-only in the next year; perhaps 5-10 at the most. But the studios need to start sending a message to consumers that they will eventually need to upgrade to the new format.

3. Target the HD DVD Owners
In a commentary posted here yesterday, I stressed how important it is that Sony reach out to the nearly one million people who have HD DVD players by offering discounts on Blu-ray players. With Toshiba exiting the HD DVD business, this audience is up for grabs. It could become disillusioned with the high-def disc and fall back to standard-def DVDs (and maybe digital downloads.) Or it could decide to embrace Blu and start buying new players and discs. If they choose the latter, it would lead to more positive word of mouth about the high-def disc, which would help attract more customers. The HD DVD audience is an important one because it has already purchased a high-def player; Blu supporters should not alienate them.

4. Bundle Blu-ray Players With HDTVs
Sony and Sharp have already done this with some sets, but there needs to be an accelerated bundling program from the manufactures and retailers. Every time someone shops for a high-def set, he/she should be encouraged (and given an incentive) to buy a Blu-ray player. This is the ideal time to persuade high-def enthusiasts to switch to Blu-ray.

5. Promote the 'Best' Picture
Blu-ray companies have heavily promoted the format's exceptional picture quality. However, they need to start saying that the picture is better than anything else on the market -- better than cable, satellite, telcos, you name it. (And it is) It's not enough to just say it has a great picture; consumers need to hear that it's the best picture. People are more likely to buy a product if it's regarded as the best available. (Just look at the boom in 1080p set sales.)

Conclusion
The transition from DVD to Blu won't be easy and it will require even more financial sacrifice from Blu supporters such as Sony which are still reeling from money spent in the format war against HD DVD. But I believe that they will be willing to make that investment, having come all this way after the HD DVD battle.

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Swanni (Phillip Swann) is president and publisher of TVPredictions.com. He has been quoted in dozens of publications and broadcast outlets, including CNN, Fox News, Inside Edition, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune, The Financial Times, The Associated Press and The Hollywood Reporter. He can be reached at swann@tvpredictions.com or at 703-505-3064.

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