Blockbuster's influence in the video rental world is immeasurable with thousands of stores nationwide. It's just a matter of time before other rental chains decide to carry Blu-ray exclusively as well.
And when that happens -- coupled with falling prices for Blu-ray players -- HD DVD will have little hope of surviving the high-def format war.
Just look at the obstacles that now face HD DVD:
* Four of the eight major studios support Blu-ray exclusively with only one (Universal) backing HD DVD exclusively. Most new film releases are now -- and will continue to be -- available in Blu-ray and not HD DVD.
* Blockbuster, still the first destination for millions of video renters, will only carry Blu-ray in most stores. (The retailer says it will keep HD DVD titles in 250 test stores for now.) Video enthusiasts who rent movies at retail will soon have difficulty finding a HD DVD title.
* Sony has sold more than one million PlayStation 3 game consoles that include Blu-ray players -- and console sales should rise even more rapidly in the next year with Sony hinting at a price drop. The PS3 gives Blu-ray a huge advantage over HD DVD.
* Sony just dropped the price of its standalone Blu-ray player to $499, almost within reach of Toshiba's entry-level price of $299. The price gap between the two players is closing fast.
Add it all up and it's hard to see the high-def DVD format war extending much beyond this year.
Now, you can still make an argument that Blu-ray is no sure thing in the marketplace. Consumers have yet to be convinced that they need high-def DVD players.
But with just one format available, it will be easier for Blu-ray backers to seal the deal.
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Phillip Swann is
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