Analyst: Blu-ray Players In 25% Of Homes By 2011
He also says Blu-ray disc prices will fall.
By Swanni
That's according to a new report from Bernstein Research analyst Michael Nathanson, as reported by Reuters.
Nathanson says Blu-ray players will be in approximately one percent of U.S. households at the end of this year, suggesting the high-def disc format will experience a boom over the next three years.
To help fuel that growth, the analyst estimates that the average price of a Blu-ray disc will drop from $28.50 this year to $24.43 in 2011. He says overall Blu-ray revenue will jump from $260 million this year to $4.24 billion in 2011.
However, despite the rosy projections, Nathanson says many Blu-ray owners will buy only about 6-10 Blu-ray titles.
"We have a hard time understanding why consumers will rush out to Best Buy to pick up the Blu-ray version of Caddyshack or Sleepless in Seattle," he said, according to Reuters.
But due to the higher profit margin for Blu-ray discs, compared to standard-def DVDs, the analyst says that 6-10 titles for each Blu-ray owner would give the home video industry a major boost.
Thanks to Blu-ray, Nathanson says the home video industry might net a 2.4 percent annual growth rate in revenue over the next three years. Without Blu-ray, he says, the industry would have lost 2.2 percent each year.
Nathanson's report says there were about 3.5 million Blu-ray players in U.S. homes at the end of 2007, including Play Station 3 consoles. He predicts that a sudden rise in Blu-ray sales will occur when the player price drops from around $399 to under $200, probably not until next year.
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