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News Analysis
Blu-ray: The Resentment Factor
The channel will feature crime programming.
By
Swanni
 
Washington, D.C. (May 5, 2008) -- A friend of mine loves his 52-inch High-Definition TV, particularly when watching movies, which he collects by the dozens. (I've told him that he could qualify for a local Blockbuster franchise.) So you would think he would be a likely buyer of a new Blu-ray high-def disc player.

Think again.

"I've been collecting DVDs for almost 10 years," he says. "I'm not going to spend money replacing them with a new format. You can forget it."

I've explained that he can watch his standard-def DVDs on a Blu-ray player. In fact, the Blu-ray's upconverting feature will improve the picture, I tell him.

But that's not the point.

"They're always trying to get you
to spend money on something new, making what you have obsolete. I'm tired of it," he said.

Industry analysts, including yours truly, often note that Blu-ray's biggest obstacle to success is the standard-def DVD player. Millions of people have one and have yet to see a compelling reason to buy a Blu-ray player to watch movies at home, particularly with Blu-ray player prices at $399.

In time, that barrier will start to come down when people experience the Blu-ray picture, perhaps at a neighbor's home or at the local electronics store. Lower prices and that picture, which is dramatically better than a SD DVD image, will trigger serious sales.

But I suspect there's a deeper emotional reason for why some people will cling to their SD DVD players for years to come -- even when Blu-ray player prices fall to $200 or lower.

They are simply tired of being jerked around; tired of constantly being told they must buy the next new thing because their current device will soon be obsolete. They've invested considerable time and money in that device, but the industry is telling them that it will soon be a big waste.

In the case of Blu-ray, the current premium price for new movie releases -- usually $10-15 more than SD DVDs -- just reinforces this resentment.

"You're telling me that I have to replace my old DVDs with new discs -- and they cost more?" my friend says in disbelief.

Of course, again, he doesn't have to replace his new movies, but it's the principal. In his mind, the industry is just trying to force him to pay more -- more for the player and more for the discs themselves. That's a tough sell, particularly in a sluggish economy.

As Blu-ray companies expand their efforts to replace the SD DVD, they might want to keep that in mind.

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Phillip Swann is president and publisher of TVPredictions.com. He has been quoted in dozens of publications and broadcast outlets, including CNN, Fox News, Inside Edition, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune, The Financial Times, The Associated Press and The Hollywood Reporter. He can be reached at swann@tvpredictions.com or at 703-505-3064.

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