Study: HD DVD's Exit Hasn't Helped Blu-ray
NPD Group says sales fell from January to February.
By Swanni
That's according to a new report from the NPD Group, as reported by the Associated Press.
Toshiba announced in mid-February that it would pull the plug on HD DVD at the end of March, ceding victory to Blu-ray in the high-def disc format war.
But NPD says sales of standalone Blu-ray players (not including Play Station 3 consoles) fell 40 percent from January to February in the U.S. Blu-ray sales increased two percent from February to March. (The AP reports that NPD did not release exact sales numbers.)
"When we surveyed consumers late last year, an overwhelming number of them said they weren't investing in a new next-generation player because their old DVD player worked well and next-generation players were too expensive," said Ross Rubin, director of industry analysis at NPD. "It's clear from retail sales that those consumer sentiments are still holding true."
The lowest-priced Blu-ray player now retails for around $399, compared to standard-def DVD players which can be had for under $100.
However, sales of the Play Station 3, which has a Blu-ray player inside, almost doubled in March, compared to last year's sales totals.
Commentary:
Despite some wide-eyed, open-mouthed reports today from the media, the NPD Group's report is not surprising at all for three reasons:
1. Most consumer electronics products experience declining sales from January to February. If you so desired, you could say that almost any CE product is suffering from declining sales -- if you only used sales figures from those months.
2. Following HD DVD's exit, Blu-ray manufacturers decided to raise standalone player prices to $399 or more. (During the format war, some retailers were offering them at around $300.
They did so because of limited supplies and a general sentiment that prices had fallen too fast during the format war. In my view, the decision was dumb -- it served only to depress interest and stifle Blu-ray's momentum following the format victory. But, nonetheless, that's a major reason why standalone players have not jumped after the HD DVD defeat.
3. Sales of the PlayStation 3, which has a Blu-ray player inside, have boomed since HD DVD's exit, further depressing standalone player sales. Many consumers who decided to buy a Blu-ray player after the HD DVD exit probably decided to buy a PS3, which retails for $399, the same as the standalone player.
So when you add it up, it's not surprising that standalone player sales have not jumped. Prices have gone up; February and March are not strong CE sales months; and the standalone player is competing with the now incredibly popular PS3.
It's also silly to suggest that Blu-ray somehow is not kicking into gear. Home Media Magazine reports that Blu-ray jumped 351 percent in the first quarter, compared to last year's first quarter. And, again, the PS3 is on fire.
Plus, I predict that Blu-ray player prices will start to fall again in the fall and during the 2008 holiday season. That's when Blu-ray will really start to take off.
Yes, it will be years before Blu-ray replaces the standard-def DVD -- but that day will come.
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