I applaud the initiative. However, despite their best efforts, I predict that the campaign will fall short and that Congress will extend the 2009 deadline by at least one year.
No Viewer Left Behind?
On February 17, 2009, Americans will need either a Digital TV -- or a 'digital-to-analog' converter box -- to continue to watch television. (Note: Cable and satellite boxes will be able to convert the signals.)
At the press conference today in Washington, D.C., the DTV Transition Coalition, which includes broadcasting, cable and CE groups, vowed that no viewer would be left behind when the switch occurs.
Coalition members said the educational campaign -- and the benefits of Digital TV (High-Definition TV; multicasting etc.) -- will motivate Americans to get ready for the switch.
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However, despite their sincerity and resourcefulness, coalition members are simply not up to the task. Nor are the multiple government agencies involved in making the transition a success.
The DTV Coalition says blue skies are ahead.
And here's why:
1. There's Not Enough Time
The transition is now less than two years away and several research studies have demonstrated that a majority of Americans are blissfully unaware it will occur. No matter how much money is spent on an educational campaign, it can't possibly get the word to everyone in time. So it's inevitable that millions of people will fail to either buy a set or get a converter box by February 17, 2009.
2. There's Not Enough Money
Even if there was enough time, Congress has allocated a measly $5 million for the federal DTV educational campaign. That's a drop in the bucket, as John Kneuer, the Bush administration official in charge of the transition, once said. (Although he now takes the remark back). In addition, Congress has authorized just $1.5 billion in converter box subsidies which won't be enough to cover the need. Consequently, millions of people will have to spend their own money on the set-tops. And that won't happen because...
3. People Are People
Even if they become aware of the transition, many Americans will hesitate to act if they know it will require spending money. It's human nature, folks. Instead, they will sit back and call the federal government's bluff. "Go ahead and take my TV signals, if you dare," they will say.
4. Politicians Are Politicians
And when the brave souls who people the halls of Congress realize that millions of voters may lose their TV signals, they will vote to extend the February 17, 2009 deadline by at least one year. And they will likely increase the converter subsidy to ensure that almost everyone who needs one will get it without paying.
Yes, this will be costly -- but not more costly in the minds of lawmakers than seeing their constituents storm their offices carrying pitchforks.
So best of luck to the DTV Transition Coalition, particularly since its mission will likely extend to 2010 if not beyond that.
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Phillip Swann is president and publisher of
TVPredictions.com. He has been quoted in dozens of
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Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune, The Financial
Times, The Associated Press and The Hollywood
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