Washington, D.C.
(February 6, 2007)
-- On February 17, 2009, the United States will switch
from analog to Digital TV signals. At that time, if you
don't have a Digital TV or a set-top converter box, you
will not be able to watch television.
At this point, I have to predict that millions of Americans indeed will be unable to get TV signals on that fateful day because they either didn't buy a new set or they didn't understand the need for a converter box.
Why?
Over and over again, the federal government has demonstrated that it has no clue how it will persuade consumers to switch to Digital TV. Even worse, there's evidence that federal officials are not taking the issue seriously enough to get the job done.
At this point, I have to predict that millions of Americans indeed will be unable to get TV signals on that fateful day because they either didn't buy a new set or they didn't understand the need for a converter box.
Why?
Over and over again, the federal government has demonstrated that it has no clue how it will persuade consumers to switch to Digital TV. Even worse, there's evidence that federal officials are not taking the issue seriously enough to get the job done.
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Let me amplify my contention with some recent developments:
Not My Job
John Kneuer, who heads the National Telecommunications and Information Administration, which is overseeing the Digital TV transition, was asked last week by C-SPAN if the White House had a 'Plan B' in case millions of consumers lose their TV signals in 2009.
Remarkably, Kneuer, whose office advises the White House on telecommunications issues, said he didn't want to second-guess Congress, which did not include a backup plan in its passage of the February 17, 2009 deadline for the Digital TV transition.
The White House says it doesn't want to second-guess Congress.
In other words, because Congress didn't pass a 'Plan B," it's not up to Kneuer and the White House to suggest one.
Can you think of any other issue on which the White House would defer so willingly to Capitol Hill? I can't.
Kneuer's decision to punt on a 'Plan B' suggests that the administration is not terribly concerned what will happen on February 17, 2009, which arguably should not be too surprising. The digital transition will occur 27 days after President Bush leaves office.
It's For the Kids!
The FCC this week asked Congress for $1.5 million for a Digital TV consumer education campaign in 2008. The funding is pathetically low, but even more pathetic is that the FCC would use some of the money to educate children on the transition, according to Broadcasting & Cable magazine. Yes, that's right. Children. The agency wants to launch a "DTV Deputy" campaign for the kids, presumably to enlist their help in persuading Mom and Dad to get a new Digital TV.
Kneuer reportedly has said that the $5 million allocated for his office's consumer outreach plan is a "drop in the bucket." (He now says the quote was taken out of context.) But the FCC apparently believes that it can use a portion of the $1.5 million to target school kids.
Sorry, this sounds more like a "feel good" PSA effort than a substantive campaign.
Warning: This TV Could Be Hazardous to Your Viewing
Three Republican U.S. House members, including former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Illinois), recently introduced legislation designed to further consumer awareness of the digital transition. However, the bill largely calls for warning labels on analog TVs and more government reports written for and by federal bureaucrats.
And to be fair, the Democrats are doing nothing either to move this along. Some Democratic lawmakers have issued press releases saying there is a problem, but have taken no action. And now that they run the store, that's not acceptable.
Lesser of Evils?
The Digital TV transition will take place in just two years. And a recent survey by the Association of Public Television Stations says most Americans are still blissfully unaware it will happen. More scary is that viewers who get their TV signals from off-air antennas don't have any idea what's going on. (Cable and satellite viewers will likely be able to get converter boxes from their TV providers.)
If the government doesn't get serious -- and soon -- one of two things will happen:
1. Fearful that their constituents will storm the gates when they suddenly can't watch TV on February 17, 2009, Congress will be forced to extend the deadline another year or two.
2. The deadline will stay in place -- and millions of consumers will lose their TV signals.
The first option would be messy. The second one could be nasty.
Click TVPredictions.com to see today's Swanni Sez.
© TVPredictions.com
____________________________________________
____________________________________________
Let me amplify my contention with some recent developments:
Not My Job
John Kneuer, who heads the National Telecommunications and Information Administration, which is overseeing the Digital TV transition, was asked last week by C-SPAN if the White House had a 'Plan B' in case millions of consumers lose their TV signals in 2009.
Remarkably, Kneuer, whose office advises the White House on telecommunications issues, said he didn't want to second-guess Congress, which did not include a backup plan in its passage of the February 17, 2009 deadline for the Digital TV transition.
The White House says it doesn't want to second-guess Congress.
In other words, because Congress didn't pass a 'Plan B," it's not up to Kneuer and the White House to suggest one.
Can you think of any other issue on which the White House would defer so willingly to Capitol Hill? I can't.
Kneuer's decision to punt on a 'Plan B' suggests that the administration is not terribly concerned what will happen on February 17, 2009, which arguably should not be too surprising. The digital transition will occur 27 days after President Bush leaves office.
It's For the Kids!
The FCC this week asked Congress for $1.5 million for a Digital TV consumer education campaign in 2008. The funding is pathetically low, but even more pathetic is that the FCC would use some of the money to educate children on the transition, according to Broadcasting & Cable magazine. Yes, that's right. Children. The agency wants to launch a "DTV Deputy" campaign for the kids, presumably to enlist their help in persuading Mom and Dad to get a new Digital TV.
Kneuer reportedly has said that the $5 million allocated for his office's consumer outreach plan is a "drop in the bucket." (He now says the quote was taken out of context.) But the FCC apparently believes that it can use a portion of the $1.5 million to target school kids.
Sorry, this sounds more like a "feel good" PSA effort than a substantive campaign.
Warning: This TV Could Be Hazardous to Your Viewing
Three Republican U.S. House members, including former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Illinois), recently introduced legislation designed to further consumer awareness of the digital transition. However, the bill largely calls for warning labels on analog TVs and more government reports written for and by federal bureaucrats.
And to be fair, the Democrats are doing nothing either to move this along. Some Democratic lawmakers have issued press releases saying there is a problem, but have taken no action. And now that they run the store, that's not acceptable.
Lesser of Evils?
The Digital TV transition will take place in just two years. And a recent survey by the Association of Public Television Stations says most Americans are still blissfully unaware it will happen. More scary is that viewers who get their TV signals from off-air antennas don't have any idea what's going on. (Cable and satellite viewers will likely be able to get converter boxes from their TV providers.)
If the government doesn't get serious -- and soon -- one of two things will happen:
1. Fearful that their constituents will storm the gates when they suddenly can't watch TV on February 17, 2009, Congress will be forced to extend the deadline another year or two.
2. The deadline will stay in place -- and millions of consumers will lose their TV signals.
The first option would be messy. The second one could be nasty.
Click TVPredictions.com to see today's Swanni Sez.
© TVPredictions.com
____________________________________________
Phillip Swann is president and publisher of
TVPredictions.com. He has been quoted in dozens of
publications and broadcast outlets, including CNN,
Fox News, Inside Edition, The New York Times, The
Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune, The Financial
Times, The Associated Press and The Hollywood
Reporter. He can be reached at
swann@tvpredictions.com
or at 703-505-3064.
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