Washington, D.C. (September 5, 2007) -- The satellite TV industry's disclosure that it may not meet the 2009 Digital TV deadline is more evidence that the transition is not proceeding smoothly.

The disclosure may also increase calls from lawmakers to push back the February 17, 2009 transition date by several months at least to ensure that no TV viewer is left behind when the nation switches from analog to digital.

Several congressmen, including Rep. John Dingell, D-Michigan, chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, have already hinted that they might push for a later date. They have expressed concern that the federal government and private industry are not doing enough to educate consumers on the transition.

On the switchover day, viewers will need a pay TV service, a Digital TV or a digital converter box to continue to watch television. But surveys show that a small percentage of Americans are now aware of that fact.

And now to make matters worse, DIRECTV and EchoStar are suggesting that a subscription to a pay TV service may not be a guarantee that you'll be able to watch TV on the transition day.

The satcasters revealed yesterday that they have warned the Federal Communications Commission that they will be unable to convert all local TV signals from analog to digital by the transition date if some stations delay in making the switch.

The companies said they need a significant amount of time in advance to complete the switchover for each station.

If DIRECTV or EchoStar can not provide a station's digital signals on February 17, 2009, then its subscribers will be unable to watch the station when the transition occurs.

(This problem should not affect cable viewers because a local cable system has only about 10-15 local channels to switch over while the two satcasters have more than 1,000 local channels nationwide to convert.)

DIRECTV last night said most stations are already providing digital signals. But some stations, particularly in small markets, are expected to wait until the last minute to make the switch.

Unless the FCC acts and forces them to switch earlier, it would seem to guarantee that a significant number of DIRECTV and EchoStar's combined subscriber base of roughly 30 million homes will lose their local signals on the transition day.


How many Americans will lose their signals in 2009?

Robert Mercer, a DIRECTV spokesman, told TVPredictions.com last night that his company is hopeful the FCC will grant the satellite industry's request to force local stations to reveal their digital plans by December 2007 and/or give satcasters more time to convert to digital if some stations wait until the last minute to make the switch.

"So we're optimistic that we will make the transition.
And the FCC will likely address the cut off issue," Mercer said.

But he acknowledged that some stations could still delay in switching to digital which could cause viewing disruptions on transition day.

"We also hope that the limited number of stations that need to flashcut (switch to digital on or near the transition day) would work with us in advance to establish a means to deliver us a good quality signal and avoid any disruption in service," he said.

With the satcasters expressing fear -- and most Americans still unaware of the Digital TV transition, which is just 17 months away -- it's hard to see how Congress won't intervene next year and push this thing back, perhaps to 2010.

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Swanni (Phillip Swann) is president and publisher of TVPredictions.com. He has been quoted in dozens of publications and broadcast outlets, including CNN, Fox News, Inside Edition, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune, The Financial Times, The Associated Press and The Hollywood Reporter. He can be reached at swann@tvpredictions.com or at 703-505-3064.

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