News Analysis
DVR Ad-Skipping: Urban Legend?
A new study suggests that DVR owners are not skipping as many commercials as you think.
By Phillip Swann

Washington, D.C. (April 26, 2006) -- Many industry officials, journalists and analysts have suggested that owners of Digital Video Recorders will watch the majority of primetime shows after they originally air.

Why?

1. They are too busy when the program is broadcast. 2. They want to be able to fast-forward past the commercials, which is easily done when the show has been recorded.

However, I have said repeatedly that the industry consensus is wrong. Most Americans will still prefer to watch their favorite shows when they are scheduled. Consequently, I believe that claims that DVR ad-skipping will dramatically change the advertising industry are overrated. Most people will still watch the commercials.

Today, a new study backs up my analysis. The Total TV Audience Monitor, a research firm based in New Jersey, says only one-fourth of DVR owners actually watch recorded shows during the week. In addition, only six percent of all DVR viewing is 'time-shifted.'

If the study is correct (and I am correct), it begs a question:

Why are so many people saying that most DVR owners rarely watch the commercials?

There are two reasons for that as well:

1. Most industry analysts (and tech journalists) are more tech savvy than the average TV viewer. They are more likely to skip the ads so they assume that everyone else will. But it's not true.

2. Advertisers are purposely trying to create the perception that DVR owners are skipping ads so they can coerce the networks to lower their advertising rates.

But it seems to this observer that rampant DVR ad-skipping has become one of the great urban legends of our time.

To learn more about the study, click Here

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Phillip Swann is president and publisher of TVPredictions.com. He has been quoted in dozens of publications and broadcast outlets, including CNN, Fox News, Inside Edition, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune, The Financial Times, The Associated Press and The Hollywood Reporter. He can be reached at swann@tvpredictions.com or at 703-505-3064.

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