If you listened to the advertising industry -- and some in the media -- you would think the answer is no. They say that owners of new Digital Video Recorders are fast-forwarding past commercials during recorded shows so they can watch them in less time.
Consequently, advertisers have hinted that the networks should reduce their fees for running the ads. They are also balking at the networks' request to pay extra when Nielsen next month begins including DVR viewing in its TV ratings. (The six major broadcast networks are scheduled to hold a press conference today at NBC headquarters to urge advertisers to reconsider their position; they say that DVR viewing is still very valuable to the advertisers. Update: Networks Defend DVR Viewing)
I say that the networks are right -- and the advertisers are dead wrong. And here's why:
1. Ad skipping is not new.
People have been fast-forwarding past commercials since the 1970s when the VCR was first introduced. Although the DVR makes it easier to skip ads, it's not likely the increase will be that significant. New technology does not radically change long-existing behavior, despite what some would like us to believe. If you're a person who likes to skip ads, you'll likely do it whether you have a VCR or a DVR.
In addition, unlike the VCR, most DVR ad-skipping features force the viewer to see a clear image of the commercial while it's being skipped. (The VCR fast-forward button blurs the picture.) So, all things considered, DVR owners could actually see more advertising messages than VCR owners.
But advertisers are acting as if commercial-skipping is a new phenomenon and that suddenly their ads will go unseen. It's simply not true.
2. DVR commercial skipping will slow down.
The advertising community is overreacting in part because some studies have shown that up to 60 percent of DVR owners are skipping past at least some commercials.
However, those studies are based on the behavior of early adopters, which are always a poor barometer of the behavior of a mass audience. Early adopters are more likely to try new devices and their special features while the average consumer is content to use the device's basic controls. With DVRs now in less than 10 percent of U.S. homes, it's likely that commercial-skipping among DVR owners will decrease as the product reaches the mainstream.
"Ad skipping is not new.
People have been doing it for
years with the VCR."
3. Commercials are
only being skipped during recorded programming.
Advertisers and some journalists make it sound
like DVR owners are skipping commercials during ever
show they watch. However, you can only fast-forward
past an ad during a show you've recorded.
Studies are conflicting on how often DVR owners
watch real-time TV versus recorded television, but
it appears to be roughly 50-50. So, we're only
talking about 50 percent of their viewing. The
rhetoric from advertisers and some media analysts
would suggest that the problem is far greater than
that.
All About the Money
Of course, advertisers have reason to be
concerned. The DVR is relatively a new product and
it remains uncertain exactly what impact it will
have.
But I suspect that the advertising community is
using the well-orchestrated hysteria surrounding the
DVR as leverage to force the networks to reduce
their future advertising fees.
If that's true, they should rewind that stance
immediately.
© TVPredictions.com
Phillip Swann is president and
publisher of TVPredictions.com. He has been quoted
in dozens of publications and broadcast outlets,
including CNN, Fox News, Inside Edition, The Chicago
Tribune, The Associated Press and The Hollywood
Reporter. He can be reached at
swann@tvpredictions.com
or at 703-505-3064.
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