But nearly five months later, Comcast and Vudu have yet to add Home Premiere to their VOD lineups -- and DIRECTV often doesn't even list a Home Premiere selection in its VOD menu. And when the satcaster does offer a $30 VOD movie, it doesn't even promote it on its VOD Home Page.

Clearly, DIRECTV subscribers have decided that $30 is too much to watch any film, much less one that will be released on Blu-ray or $4.99 VOD in just a month. And it's equally clear that DIRECTV has decided that $30 VOD is a loser, or else the satcaster would be trying to promote it rather than all-but-burying it.

Of course, this is not very surprising. I predicted last spring that the concept was doomed because of the exorbitant price tag. (And I should note that other industry observers forecast the same.)

But if you could time tunnel back to the spring and listen to the many industry "experts" who said this would be the beginning of the end of the movie theater, well, you would be reminded how often a new product is over-hyped.

My new prediction is that the studios and DIRECTV will take a breather this fall and bring back Home Premiere in 2012 with a new price tag ($20) and a new window (30 days after a movie's theatrical debut). The buy rates will rise a bit, but trust me, it will have little impact still on theatrical sales.

Until the studios decide to go all in -- and offer movies at home on the same day as their theatrical debut (and close to the same price) -- Home Premiere will flop.

And in 2011, it's the industry's biggest flop of all.