Phillip Swann, president of TVPredictions.com, has been making predictions about TV technology issues for several years with an incredible rate of success.
For instance, Swanni was the first to say Voom's satellite TV service would fail; that Apple TV would be a bust; and that Interactive TV programs would never reach a mass audience in the United States.
"I'm not always right, but I will put my record up against anyone," Swanni says.
And now, Swanni is kicking off his forecasts for High-Definition TV in the coming year.
The video commentary below includes Swanni's second prediction -- what will happen in the Blu-ray/HD DVD high-def disc format war?
Will Blu-ray win? HD DVD? Neither?
To see Swanni's Prediction #2 for 2008, click below:
http://www.tvpredictions.com/swannitwo120507.htm
cant get it. must be blocked because at work. can someone give me the summary of the predictions?
The prediction is that the studios are getting ticked at the ladies in Japan and their silly format slapfest and will pressure them to end the war.
I hope it is true. I also hope there is help for the "losing" side. Right now that is BOTH sides.
I sure hope you are right Phil, but I just can't see how it will be practically accomplished at this point. Despite similarities (both use blue lasers, dense packing of bits), there are fundamental differences in approach that belie a compromise approach. The dual format players cost more than 2 individual units because most of the mission critical hardware has to be doubled. So it will be ONE winner - if these differences enabled a compromise that was compatible with the other systems discs, then they would have been able to resolve this earlier - they aren't quite as stupid as the public thinks. A resolution will mean taking egg on the face in a big way from one of the manufacturing parties. Not to mention a large number of enraged early adaptors and a massive class action suit (the lawyers win!). The compromise would mean the "winner" dropping some major payola on the "loser" to stop competing.
The simple thing most pontificators don't understand (and you Phil are of course not in this crowd!) is that it's a case of more advanced technology that is slower and more expensive to deploy (Blu-ray) against a technology based more on current DVD technology that is easier and faster to develop and produce. The issue is that Blu-ray's advantages are only POTENTIAL for the future now. The current products have exactly equivalent video technology, and in fact HD-DVD has been able to get some features to market quicker (eg PIP). If HD-DVD can't dominate within a few years on it's price and quicker development of product, then Blu-ray will pull ahead as future capabilities will be better, and costs will start to balance out.
Personally, I say we should just let Steve Jobs take care of it <retreating to foxhole>
Phil, the videos are cute, but really a PIA and impractical way to deliver your messages compared to the text articles. Almost as much as the teaser emails that bring us to your site... I know - that's business!
His argument is that the war will be resolved in 2008, but no comment as to how.
Is there a transcript?
I don't see any predictions. Just an introductory statement urging me to press a non-existent button.
Okay, okay, I will do text summaries later today. :)
Swanni
Swanni, are you a betting man? I'll give you 2 to 1 on a thousand dollars, that there will still be at least two formats a year from now.
This format war is making me very angry, I want a hi def player and I want to purchase hi def dvd's.Blu-ray, HD-DVD you're the losers because i'm not buying anything untill there is one standard format.
I'm being a bit comic here, but think about this -- As you are a TV expert page, don't you think it would be better if your on-camera interviews had better composition? Look at all that head room. Looks like an old 1.85 movie transferred full frame.
As daunting as it may seem technically, it's a logical direction. The marketing benefit is obvious. What may not be obvious is the need to increase the penetation of an HD format for reason of controlling piracy. The decision with Verance earlier this year points to the mechanism.
This is a cop out, not a prediction! You're just predicting the timing of the end of the war, not a winner.
Seems to me that 'Sean' is correct on both technical and business grounds. Strange thing is, seems to me, that this is NOT a war for Sony to win, it is a war for Sony to LOSE, and always has been. Further, absent the PS3 game machine, there is not now - and has never been - a format "war". In fact, I think it would be very easy for the BluRay forces to prevail - given the big already-installed game machine base - simply by matching HD-DVD player prices dollar-for-dollar. Apparently, though, 'Sean's' technical analysis would tend to support my long-held assertion that it is not by choice but by economic impediments that BD standalone manufacturers have been unable to do so; if that's correct, and the problem persistsHD-DVD with HD-DVD manufacturers constantly able to gut the competition on price, HD-DVD wins if only by default.
Well, bluray format will survive for sure, due to the fact that it is what PS3 games are on and the media it uses. If they got rid of bluray, all PS3s would be basically worthless dvd players. Your talking close to 3 million players. On the HD DVD side its probably closer to a 1/2 to 3/4 of a million players. HD DVD also doesn't have any game systems tied to its HDM(xbox 360 hd drive is just an add on).
So if they combine, it will have to be with the bluray format. It should eb bluray anyways, 50gb>30gb and it has higher bitrates for audio/video. There are way too many reasons to keep bluray over hd dvd.
I sure hope you are right, Phil. No one is really winning right now, and each side is doing their best to make sure it keeps 2 formats going.
Sony could make this easy, like the previous post said, just by matching prices, but Sony is Sony, and that is something they never do.
So it means that, I think in the long run, Toshiba will slowly erode the market advantage Sony has with lower prices. They have certainly made inroads lately, and another bargain basement price drop like that will only make more.
The recent comments by the Sony executive sounding defeated is encouraging, sounding like someone who is not interested in a long battle, but would rather come to a solution sooner. Maybe it will happen. If so, the consumers win.
I'm the consumer waiting for a single format before I buy. I hope you are right and they settle.
HD-DVD will win because of the name,bluray sounds strange not easy to market.
Swanni, I appreciate your prediction and I am optimistic about the future. However, I see issues with a 'merging of formats'. First of all, would PS3 users be able to continue using their system to watch HD movies? Also, I see problems with Toshiba and Sony getting along. Now I don't claim to know too much about the relationship between these two companies, yet I find it hard to see two competing companies suddenly 'buddying up', if you will.
Care to explain how you think these issue will work out?
Depending on which format was agreed or chosen to be the HD video disc standard, there would be a different set of arrangements. Sony could potentially have the resources to BUY out Toshiba - not that it would be cheap. But it would start paying back immediately. Although.... We the consumers will be the ones actually financing that.
I doubt Microsoft is ready to buy out Sony from that market though.
The PS3 wouldn't be abandoned if Blu-ray gave up the video market, nor would the potential for removable computer storage drives etc. The discs would still be made for those uses. Game machines have often had proprietary cartridges, and since they don't want them copied or used on other devices, this is not a disadvantage.
But Swanni - I agree - this is a bit of a copout prediction. Give us a bit more meat, since I see an agreed resolution as being VERY challenging at this stage. Is there a NDA holding you down? Some insider info? Or are you peicing this together from public information you can show us?
Hi, to comment on the article, HD or not, I will be sticking with Time Warner Cable. Yes I do have the triple Play, and hoping one day a Mobile Phone service comes into play, was supposed to be Pivot from Sprint, but that will not happen. Yes I like all the HD Channels on DIRECTV and wish them luck with the additions of MSG HD and FSN NY HD, but with TWC I get all NY RSN in HD, same as DIRECTV , but also get New York City, Staten Island, "Local Programming" , where according to DIRECTV Spokesman Robert Mercer, DIRECTV does not cover that "local" Coverage. So with that said, I am very happy with the Time Warner HD Services, and will be sticking with them for a while. I do know that I won't be going with Verizon FIOS TV, according to Spokeswoman Heather Wilner, MSG HD and FSN NY HD was excluded from the agreement with Verizon from Cablevision, so that's that. ON December 13 Time Warner Cable of Staten Island, and Woodside Queens, will add History HD, NHL Network HD, Versus / Golf HD , Lifetime Movies HD, and in Woodside Queens Only, M HD, The Movie Channel HD, HGTV HD, FOOD HD, A&E HD. Staten Island currently has The Movie Channel HD, M HD, A&E HD,Food HD, and HGTV HD. Time Warner Cable of NYC ( Staten Island, Queens, Brooklyn, and Manhatten ) Currently have the following HD Channels., CBS HD, NBC HD, FOX HD, ABC HD, TBS HD, MY 9 HD, CW 11 HD, PBS HD, Discovery HD, MSG HD, FSN NY HD, SNY HD, YES HD, TNT HD, ESPN HD, ESPN 2 HD,Universal HD, Natioanl Geographic HD, Cinemax HD, HBO HD, SHowtime HD, Starz HD, HD NET, HD net Movies and MOJO HD.
Sorry, a single negotited format won't work - too many players in the market which would be invalidated. This can be solved by one studio unilaterally - if Warner goes Blu-ray exclusive it's essentially over. If Warner goes HD-exclusive it's a stalemate (both formats will have roughly 50% of box office).
Warner, let's end this thing and move to one format for the good of everyone (except Microsoft and Toshiba)!
I think if Blu-ray players would sell for <= $199, the war would be pretty much over. I got one of the Toshiba's HD-A3 because it was <= $199 plus it came with a total of 10 free movies. I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one since these players (as well as A2s) were pretty much sold out. So do the same for Blu-ray and I'll get Blu-ray too. It's all about price.
But Bill,
You are also talking about achieving a single winner in the near future. If the overwhelming majority of box-office releases move to one format only, that WILL invalidate the losing format. In the end the 2 paths really overlap significantly. If studio support is unilaterally taken away from one format, there will be some angry consumers to placate.
A negotiated resolution would be a difficult and expensive procedure, but not as expensive as a protracted battle. I would suggest that consumers would have a limited period of time to exchange their discs. Hardware would not be compensated for. Production abruptly stops in the now obsolete format, and the winner makes some financial concessions, including reducing licensing fees to the other manufacturers. Profits will drop, but volume will rise.
For Blu-ray it won't be such a big deal, since many of the people just have PS-3's. These won't work with future movies, but some may opt to just keep titles for their machines life. Dedicated players will shape the movie buying marketplace.
HD-DVD conceding will mean people would get their important library future proofed, and many don't have a large investment in hardware anyway. All of this early generation hardware has limited value anyway - 2 years from now resale of this generation equipment will be zip either way. The PS3's will hold the most value even if they lose movie playback.
That's Seannie's prediction. Oh wait, it isn't really a prediction!
It's just another forlorn hope that this does get resolved soon. Despite some posts others have read as biased one way, I wouldn't really care which format won, as long as it is soon.
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