HDTV at CES: 10 Big Questions
The annual CE confab kicks off on Wednesday in Las Vegas.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (January 4, 2009) -- Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer will give the pre-show keynote address Wednesday night kicking off the 2009 Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.
Although Ballmer will likely focus on new PC-based technologies, many attendees during the week will be watching for major developments impacting the High-Definition TV industry.
In the last several years, high-def has dominated the annual gadget fest and this year is expected to be no different. (Thursday's keynote from Sony chief Howard Stringer should serve up more substance for the high-def enthusiast.)
So, as you make your way to the City of Lost Wages, here are 10 big HDTV questions that could be answered during the conference.
1. Will Dish Network Explain Its HDTV Shortage?
Dish Network said last July that it would offer 150 HD channels by the end of 2008. However, by year's end, the satcaster was over 100 HD channels, but far short of the 150 HD mark. Dish has a press briefing scheduled on Thursday? Will company CEO Charlie Ergen explain what happened to the missing high-def channels and/or reveal new HD channel launches for 2009?
2. Will the High-Def DVD Recorder Be Unveiled?
Companies have been selling high-def DVD recorders in Japan for several years, but have been shy about plans to introduce them elsewhere. Maybe this year at CES we will get some hint as to when they will be available here.
3. Will Larger-Screen OLED HDTVs Be Introduced?
At last year's CES, Sony introduced the first OLED TV, an 11-inch prototype, which later went on sale for a whopping $2,499. (The set, which is based on the organic light-emitting diode (OLED) technology, is just one-eight of an inch thick, compared to today's Plasma and LCD flat-screen sets which measure up to four inches thick.) Samsung also displayed a 31-inch OLED at CES, but it's not been available for sale.
So, will TV makers this year finally offer larger-screen -- and affordable -- OLED sets?
4. Will Blu-ray Makers Offer Lower Prices?
Blu-ray player prices dropped dramatically in 2008, with some available for under $200 during the holiday season. However, some analysts say prices need to fall even more to generate mass sales. So, will a Blu-ray manufacturer step up this year and announce plans for a $149 Blu-ray player? A $99 Blu-ray player? And, will a studio or two commit to lower prices for Blu-ray movies?
5. Will Sony Cut PlayStation 3 Prices?
Sony's PlayStation 3 video game console, which includes a Blu-ray player inside, has lagged in sales behind Microsoft's XBox 360 and Nintendo's Wii. Some have urged Sony to drop its entry-level price from $399 to $349 or lower to stimulate sales, but the company denies a price cut is planned. However, CES could produce a surprise here. If so, it would further stimulate interest in Blu-ray.
6. Will Net TV Devices Improve HD Service?
Netflix, TiVo, Microsoft's XBox and Apple's Apple TV all offer high-def downloads over Net TV devices. However, the video quality and download speed still leaves much to be desired. Will CES 2009 be the year that digital downloads gets a technological breakthrough?
7. Will CE Companies Reach a 3-D Consensus?
On Thursday at CES, Fox will sponsor a 3-D HDTV broadcast of the BCS college football championship between Florida and Oklahoma. However, despite growing interest in 3-D movies in theaters, home viewing has been slowed by battles over standards and specs. Perhaps the Fox broadcast will serve as a forum for industry companies to announce a common standard for the delivery of 3-D video in the home.
8. Will DIRECTV Make HDTV News?
Unlike rival Dish Network, DIRECTV currently does not have a press briefing scheduled at CES. However, the nation's top satcaster could use the conference as a forum to announce new channel launches for 2009.
9. Will TiVo Make a Splash?
In previous years at CES, many attendees awaited eagerly for TiVo's latest innovation to be announced, or perhaps, news of a merger with another company. However, TiVo has been relatively quiet in recent months, except for occasional press statements regarding its ongoing patent battle with Dish Network. Perhaps TiVo has been saving up something good for CES 2009.
10. Will More HDTVs Come With Blu-ray Player Inside?
Sharp last year introduced a 52-inch High-Definition set that comes with a Blu-ray player inside. Will more TV makers (who happen to be Blu-ray manufacturers as well) introduce combo HDTV/Blu-ray players as a way to boost the Blu-ray business?
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Swanni: 5 More Predictions for HDTV!
Say goodbye to Friday Night Lights on DIRECTV.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (January 1, 2009) -- Well, the New Year is here and I've already made nine predictions for High-Definition in 2009, including $99 Blu-ray players and an end to Internet TV services Vudu and Apple TV and retailer Circuit City.
I also predicted that the Digital TV transition will create a ratings hardship for local TV stations with many viewers deciding not to participate in the switch due to its confusing nature.
So, do I have any more predictions for 2009?
Yes!
My crystal ball is still clear as a bell. So let's start the year with 5 more fearless forecasts for HDTV.
1. DIRECTV Cuts Back On Original Programming
The satcaster this year helped financed the third season of NBC's Friday Night Lights as part of a new effort to offer original programming on the dish. (For its investment, DIRECTV was permitted to show the third season in its entirety before it aired on NBC; the network will begin broadcasting the third season later this month.)
While an episode of FNL reportedly was viewed by roughly 700,000 DIRECTV viewers each week, I predict that the satcaster will not renew its partnership with NBC for a fourth season. In addition, DIRECTV will put the breaks on plans for other original programming partnerships.
Why?
The recession. Like everyone else, DIRECTV needs to tighten the belt and original programming is a luxury that it simply can't afford at this time.
2. The Digital TV Transition Will Be a Disaster
On February 17, 2009, all full-powered local TV stations will switch from analog to digital signals, meaning viewers will need a Digital TV, a converter box or a pay TV service to keep watching television. However, all signs point to a looming disaster when the transition occurs. The government is not ready; millions of viewers aren't ready; and many local stations aren't ready.
I predict that millions of Americans will either choose to stop watching TV entirely or will be unable to watch because of various technical complications with the converter boxes. This will cause many people to complain to their local congressmen, local stations, local media, local everyone.
Voter anger (and media hysteria) will be so intense that Congress will be forced to revisit the transition and try to find a quick fix. But there aren't any quick fixes, which means 2009 will be a terrible year for everyone involved. This transition was poorly conceived and even more poorly executed by the government and the industry. Now, they will have to pay the price for their mistakes.
3. Pay TV Providers Will Gain More Subs
However, some viewers who now get their local signals via off-air antennas will sign up with their local cable operator or a telco or satellite service shortly before the Digital TV transition or shortly thereafter. They will be desperate for a simple way to keep watching TV.
4. Small-Screen Digital TV Sales Will Rise In First Quarter
Likewise, many consumers who are fearful of losing their TV signals will run to their neighborhood store in search of a cheap digital set, preferably one under $500. Consequently, you'll see a significant rise in the sale of 32-inch and even 27-inch Digital TV/HDTVs in the first quarter of the year.
5. DIRECTV and Dish Network Will Merge
Okay, everyone says it can't happen because federal regulators would never approve it. (The FCC rejected a DIRECTV-Dish merger in 2002) But I say it has to happen. Dish Network is losing subs, folks, so it has to do something dramatic -- and soon -- to stay competitive.
While I wouldn't compare Dish to Detroit, the satcaster is in need of a bailout, but not from the feds. Dish needs a partner or a buyer and DIRECTV is the obvious choice. The feds would be irresponsible to reject a satellite merger in this economic environment.
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Dish Adds Dark Knight In 1080p
The movie is available for $6.99.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (December 31, 2008) -- Dish Network announced today that it has added The Dark Knight to its selection of Pay-Per-View movies available in 1080p video.
The satcaster said the 1080p version of the film will be available for $6.99 per viewing.
Dish Network last August began offering PPV movies in 1080p high-def video -- the same resolution it says is found on the Blu-ray high-def disc. Dish premiered the format with the showing of I Am Legend on HD PPV.
Is he in 1080p on Dish?
However, some high-def experts have disputed whether the video is truly 1080p.
"But are they Blu-ray quality?," the New York Times asked of the Dish movies in an article last August. "Resolution is not the only factor that determines picture quality. Another is bit rate, the number of bits per second that are being transmitted down the pipe to consumers...Bit rate is a subject that the cable and satellite providers never discuss, but anyone who watches the various services can see that some channels are considerably softer looking than others."
The Times quoted well-known TV engineer Pete Putman as saying that CBS now offers the high bit rate over the air with 17 megabits per second for its high-def programs; and that's for 1080i, not 1080p. But Putman says he believes Dish transmits high-def programming at around 6-8 megabits per seconds.
Consequently, Putnam is dubious that the satcasters have the bandwidth to increase their bit rate to offer true 1080p video.
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HDTV: Who's the Bigger Liar of 2008?
The nation's top TV providers stretched the truth when it came to channel counts.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (December 30, 2008) -- On July 31, 2008, Dish Network issued a press release saying it planned to expand its high-def lineup to 150 channels by year's end. On November 1, 2007, Verizon released a press statement saying it would have 150 HD channels by the end of 2008.
And several times this year, DIRECTV issued press releases saying it would have the capacity to deliver up to 150 national HD channels before the year was over.
So now that year is over (minus about a day or so), did these top TV providers keep their promises?
Answer: No.
Is that Pinocchio or a TV company executive?
Dish Network offers more than 100 high-def channels, but the satcaster is far short of the magic 150 mark. (And if you don't count some PPV channels, the numbers look even less impressive.) Verizon provides slightly more than 100 HD channels in several markets, but not 150. And DIRECTV says it now has 130 HD channels, although that number is inflated with PPV and other questionable "channels."
(Of course, you can argue that DIRECTV should get a pass here because it said it would have the "capacity" to deliver 150 HD channels; not that it would definitely offer 150 HD channels. Yes, there is a difference.)
Asked today by e-mail why Dish Network fell short, a company spokesman ducked the question by issuing the following statement:
"We had a great year: DISH Network more than doubled its national HD offerings, rolled out the first HD-only programming packages through TurboHD at affordable pricing, had two successful satellite launches, expanded our local HD channel markets and became the first pay-TV provider to offer movies in 1080p," the spokesman said.
Asked again by e-mail to comment specifically on why Dish did not offer 150 HD channels, as promised, the spokesman has not responded as of this writing.
Verizon FiOS Vice President Terry Denson was asked last July by Multichannel News if his company was standing by its commitment to offer 150 HD channels in 2008.
"A lot has been made of actual channel counts but we don’t obsess over channel counts," Denson said.
Except, of course, when the company wanted to issue a press release saying that it would have 150 HD channels. Then, apparently, Verizon did obsess over channel counts.
Verizon and the satcasters are not the only TV providers to have played fast and loose with channel counts in 2008. For instance, Comcast last February said a "typical" local Comcast system would carry between 50 and 60 HDTV channels by year's end. While the cable operator has recently expanded its high-def lineup in several markets (Chicago subs have more than 80 HD channels now), many Comcast markets are still under the 50 mark.
So, why did the TV providers overpromise? (To put it nicely; lying would be another way to put it.)
In what has become a highly competitive industry, the TV providers are afraid of appearing to offer fewer HD channels than their rivals. High-def viewers want more channels and they will seek out the companies that provide them.
So instead of talking about how many channels they had in July, which happened to be fewer than DIRECTV, Dish Network talked about how many channels it would have by year's end. Likewise, Comcast and Verizon made their HD channel boasts when DIRECTV was rapidly expanding its high-def lineup in early 2008 and late 2007 respectively.
For them, it was easier (and more convenient) to say how many channels they would have -- and then hope that no one would look too closely when they didn't actually produce them.
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Netflix Tries to Quiet Angry Blu-ray Subs?
The online rental service offers free alternative rental.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (December 30, 2008) -- Is Netflix feeling the heat from Blu-ray subscribers?
The online DVD rental service, which has been criticized for failing to keep enough Blu-ray discs in stock, has just started a new program where it will send a free alternative selection when the subscriber's top choice is not available.
For instance, let's say you have the Blu-ray edition of The Dark Knight at the top of your Netflix queue, but it's out-of-stock at the shipping center that's closest to your home. Netflix says it will send your next available selection without it counting against your monthly limit. The company adds that it will then attempt to find your top choice at a different shipping center.
Of course, there's no guarantee that your next available selection will be a Blu-ray selection, but it would appear that Netflix is making an attempt to appease angry Blu-ray and standard-def subscribers.
Netflix revealed the new policy on Sunday in a notice at the company's web site. The company did not mention any specific problems with Blu-ray rentals, saying the new policy would be for all subscribers. But some Blu-ray subscribers quickly posted comments on Netflix's blog criticizing the company's Blu-ray delivery record.
"For the past month or two shipping delays became unreasonable, and to add insult to injury, Netflix started charging additional money for Blu-ray disk, while service quality went down. You are trying really hard to piss of your customers. Way to go," said one poster.
Netflix's problems with Blu-ray rentals has been reported on in several media publications, including TVPredictions.com and CNET.com. The delays have particularly upset Blu-ray subscribers because Netflix recently began charging them an extra $1 a month.
"So, again, why am I paying 'more' for Blu-rays but have to wait much longer than several months ago?" says a poster at Netflix's site.
Video Business reports that Netflix spokesman Steve Swasey says the new alternative selection policy was not a response to subscribers leaving the company due to rental delays.
"It's just the right thing to do," said Swasey, adding that a "very small percentage" of the company's 8.7 million subscribers were having delivery issues. Netflix says roughly 500,000 subscribers rent Blu-ray discs.
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FCC: Local TV Stations to Lose Analog Viewers
The switch to digital could mean ratings drop.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (December 29, 2008) -- Nearly 20 percent of full-powered local TV station will be unable to reach at least two percent of their viewers after this February's Digital TV switch.
That's according to a Federal Communications Commission report, as reported on by the Associated Press.
The two percent likely to drop out now receive their local stations via analog signals. However, on February 17, 2009, the nation's full-powered station will switch from analog to digital.
Industry officials and congressional lawmakers are concerned that many viewers will not take steps to receive the new digital signals, such as buying a new Digital TV or installing a digital converter box.
The AP notes that some viewers could also lose signals because they will be unable to receive them due to the 'cliff effect.' Unlike analog signals, digital signals are received clearly or not at all; so if a viewer lives near a tall building, a mountain or local interference, his digital reception could be zapped.
This has led some analysts to say that the industry is not doing enough to promote antennas with greater strength to capture digital and/or distant signals.
The FCC report did not that some stations might gain viewers after the transition because they will reach more people.
The AP writes that the National Association of Broadcasters refused to comment on the FCC report.
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2009: Bye, Bye Circuit City, Vudu, Apple TV
The high-def guru continues his predictions for the coming year.
By Swanni
Editor's note: Over the next few weeks, Swanni will make several predictions for HDTV in 2009. Here is his ninth prediction.
Washington, D.C. (December 28, 2008) -- Everyone now knows (officially) that we're in an economic recession, but the real question is how bad will it be?. And, how long?
While I'm not an economist, I can read the financial reports of slumping companies as well as anyone. And what I see is not good. Unless the economy improves -- and fast -- several HDTV-related companies will meet their demise next year and several others will be forced to merge with larger firms to stay in business.
Who are we talking about?
For starters, companies pushing new Internet-based movie set-top services such as Vudu and Apple TV will be hard pressed to keep them afloat. Even in good times, these services would struggle with Americans showing a strong reluctance to embrace products that require them to install Broadband lines and routers in the living room -- not to mention also having to pay roughly $200 for the Net TV set-top itself.
But in bad times? Fugghetaboutit. In 2009, dismal sales of Net TV set-tops will turn into non-existent sales, no matter how many different ways the products are promoted. So, I predict that Vudu will close its doors in 2009 and Apple's Steve Jobs will finally call it quits on his least favorite hobby, Apple TV.
Retailer Circuit City, which has already declared bankruptcy, is hanging by a thread thanks partially to the emergence of discount retailers Wal-Mart and Costco in the CE business. (There also was a series of poor management moves.) It's hard to envision a scenario in which the company can survive in 2009 if the recession deepens.
Finally, I think you'll see more rumbling about mergers in the HD category, especially between DIRECTV and Dish Network. The latter, which has been devastated by increased competition and rising costs, has reported subscriber losses in recent quarterly reports and that simply can't continue much longer.
But I will have more to say about that in a future prediction.
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Swanni Predicts: Network TV Ratings to Plunge
The switch to Digital TV will cause many viewers to stop watching.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (December 22, 2008) -- On February 17, 2009, all full-powered local TV stations will switch from analog to digital signals. Although the changeover has been publicized for months, studies have indicated that as many as three million Americans will not come along for the ride.
That's right. Instead of buying a digital converter box, a Digital TV or subscribing to a pay TV service, many Americans who now get local TV signals via off-air antennas will simply shrug their shoulders and stop watching. Or, perhaps, they will start watching more DVDs.
Consequently, I predict that February's switch will have a devastating impact on the ratings of local TV stations and the broadcast networks (CBS, ABC, Fox, CW, NBC and MyNetwork TV) -- and the timing could hardly be worse.
The locals and their network affiliates have been losing ratings steadily for years now, causing advertisers to get increasingly anxious. Add three million more to the declining numbers and it's not hard to envision some nasty economic scenarios, particularly in a global recession.
But the real problem is that we're not just talking about three million people who may stop watching TV; it's the millions more who will actually buy digital converters, but will have difficulty seeing the new digital signals.
Unlike analog, digital signals are more difficult to capture, particularly if you live near mountains, tall buildings or a few dozen miles away from the station's transmitter. Many off-air antenna viewers will suddenly find that they can get two local stations perfectly, but the other two are blocked due to interference. Some people may not be able to tune in anything.
So I predict that the average local TV station will lose between 5-7 percent of the audience after the February switchover. The networks will see similar declines in various degrees.
That's bad news for high-def viewers. With execs like NBC CEO Jeff Zucker already looking to cut expenses to the bone, the networks might decide to cut back on HD which is more costly to produce.
Perhaps in time, the TV industry can persuade the three million holdouts to buy converter boxes -- and local stations can use new technologies to improve the strength of digital signals. But until that happens, don't be surprised if the local stations -- and the networks -- take a page from Detroit and start asking Congress for relief.
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Roku Delivers Netflix HD Over Net
The $99 set-top will get a software update.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (December 22, 2008) -- Roku, the $99 set-top that can deliver Netflix titles streamed from the Internet to your TV screen, says it can now offer about 300 of those programs in 720p HD video.
The company says a software update will automatically be delivered to Roku boxes over the next few weeks to enable the high-def display.
“Netflix is a pioneer in streaming HD content over the Internet and the results are impressive,” Roku CEO Anthony Wood said in a statement. “Adding hundreds of HD titles to their catalog of more than 12,000 streaming titles provides tremendous value to Roku owners.”
While Netflix may be a pioneer in streaming HD content, Roku has been slow to the game. Netflix had already partnered with Samsung to deliver high-def content over two Blu-ray player models, TiVo and the XBox 360.
Additionally, a Roku administrator said last August that Roku's HD content from Netflix movies will play at a lower bit-rate than on the XBox, meaning the picture quality will not be as good.
That's not good news for high-def purists who have already judged the XBox picture quality as sub-par to the Blu-ray high-def disc.
The 5"-by-5" Roku set-top can connect to the TV via an Ethernet port through a variety of connections including HDMI, component video or even S-Video. The box also can be connected wirelessly to the Net using a Wi-Fi feature.
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Update: According to news reports, Charter's carriage dispute could also force it to remove local stations in Charlotte, North Carolina and Norfolk, Virginia.
News
Charter May Lose HD Signals In St. Louis, Dallas
The cable operator is involved in a carriage dispute.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (December 21, 2008) -- Charter Communications is involved in a bitter programming dispute that could prevent it from airing local SD and HD stations in St. Louis and Dallas on January 1.
The dispute between Charter and the broadcaster Belo Corp. is over programming fees. By law, a TV provider can not carry a local station's signals without its permission. The law has led to numerous programming disputes over the last few years, most recently between Dish Network and Young Broadcasting and Fisher Communications. (Dish has been forced to remove SD and HD signals in seven markets.)
KMOV-TV, the CBS affiliate in St. Louis, and WFAA, the Dallas ABC affiliate, say Charter is refusing to pay what other TV providers are paying.
"Considering that every other cable company and satellite company compensates WFAA to carry the signal, that Charter has declined our request for such reasonable compensation and opted to drop the station altogether is certainly unfortunate," Mike Devlin, WFAA's president and general manger, told the Dallas Morning News, which is also owned by Belo.
Charter tells the Morning News that it will continue to negotiate with Belo to keep the signals on the air after December 31 when their current carriage agreement expires. But the cable operator is sharply critical of Belo and its local stations.
"WFAA-TV is demanding high monthly fees from Charter cable customers for the same programming they provide free over the air and which ABC provides for free on the Internet at www.abc.com," Charter told the newspaper.
The Morning News reports that 135,000 subscribers would lose WFAA in the Dallas area if the agreement is not extended. KMOV estimates that more than 400,000 Charter subscribers will lose its signals in St. Louis. Through a previous dispute, Charter already can not air KMOV's HD signal. However, a new agreement would likely give the cable operator the right to air both the SD and HD signals.
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Comcast: 80 HD Channels In Chicago
The cable operator is using a digital conversion to expand capacity.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (December 21, 2008) -- Comcast last week added 16 more High-Definition channels to its Chicago area lineup, apparently bringing its total there to more than 80 HD channels, according to a count on its web site.
The cable operator has been able to convert most of the Chicago area from analog to digital over the last year, enabling it to expand its capacity for high-def channels and other services.
The exact number of high-def channels available in any single Chicago community is unclear because some lineups are different than others due to different stages in the digital conversion.
In most other markets, Comcast is still bound at this point at delivering around 40 high-def channels or less due to bandwidth constraints.
The new HD channels added by Comcast in Chicago last week include HBO 2, HBO Family, HBO Comedy, HBO Latino, HBO Signature, HBO Zone, MoreMax, ActionMax, Showtime 2, Showtime Extreme, Showtime Showcase, The Movie Channel, The Movie Channel xtra, The Tennis Channel, CBS College Sports and HDNet.
The cable operator also added a PPV HD channels, Game HD (for MLB Extra Innings games and Team HD (NBA League Pass games.
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DIRECTV to Carry MLB Network HD
The high-def channel will be available at launch.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (December 18, 2008) -- DIRECTV confirmed today that it will carry the High-Definition edition of the MLB Network when it launches at 6 p.m. on Jan. 1.
Robert Mercer, a DIRECTV spokesman, issued the confirmation today in an e-mail to TVPredictions.com.
The MLB Network, from Major League Baseball, will start with a 6 p.m. studio show on New Year's Day. The league, following in the footsteps of the NFL Network, NBA TV and the NHL Network, has the rights to offer 26 regular season games this year on Thursdays.
The channel will also have a standard-def channel; the high-def version will be a simulcast of the SD feed.
MLB executives said this week that the channel will be available in 50 million cable and satellite homes at launch. However, DIRECTV is the first to say that it will offer the high-def feed on January 1.
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Rainbow to Shut Down Voom HD
The 15 channels will leave the air in January.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (December 18, 2008) -- Rainbow Media, a division of Cablevision, has announced that it's shutting down the domestic operations of the 15-channel Voom HD programming suite.
A Rainbow spokeswoman confirmed the decision late tonight in an e-mail to TVPredictions.com.
Cablevision was the only TV provider that carried the 15-channel package, following a contract dispute with Dish Network, which dropped Voom earlier this year. (Rainbow and Dish are engaged in a legal battle over the action.) Multichannel News reports that Cablevision will replace the Voom channels when they officially go off the air in January.
The publication adds that Rainbow CEO Joshua Sapan blamed Dish Network's decision to drop Voom as the reason for today's action.
Despite the shutting down of Voom's domestic operations, its two channel international division will continue to operate.
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Dish Network Loses HD Channels In 7 Markets
The satcaster enters a new carriage dispute.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (December 18, 2008) -- Dish Network has dropped Fisher Communications-owned local stations in seven markets late last night after retransmission negotiations between the companies broke down.
The decision means that Dish subscribers in the following cities will not be able to watch Fisher's standard-def and high-def signals:
Seattle, Washington (ABC affiliate)
Portland, Oregon (ABC affiliate)
Boise, Idaho (CBS affiliate)
Eugene, Oregon (CBS affiliate)
Bakersfield, California (CBS and Fox affiliates)
Idaho Falls, Idaho (CBS affiliate)
Yakima, Washington (CBS affiliate)
Dish Network was involved with a similar carriage dispute earlier this month with Young Broadcasting, forcing it to remove local high-def and standard-def in 11 markets. However, the two companies reached an agreement a few days later.
In a press release issued early this morning, Dish blasted Fisher for it called "unreasonable" demands. The satcaster said its carriage agreement with Fisher expired yesterday.
"Fisher Communications’ demands have forced us to remove this channel from our local programming line-up, forcing this disruption to our customers,” said Eric Sahl, senior vice president of programming for DISH Network. “We continue to fight for our subscribers by remaining the leader in value and in order to do this, we need fair contracts and competitive pricing for our customers. This is why we refuse Fisher Communications’ request for increased pricing and unreasonable terms."
By law, a TV provider can not carry a local station without its permission, which has led to numerous disputes between providers and the stations over the last few years.
There was no comment issued this morning from Fisher Communications, which is based in Seattle.
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Comcast Launches 3 New HD Channels
But it's unclear where they can be seen.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (December 17, 2008) -- Comcast said today that E! Entertainment Television, G4 and the Style channel, all owned by the cable operator, launched High-Definition channels on December 8.
However, watching the three new channels in high-def is another matter.
Kate Noel, a Comcast spokeswoman, said she could not confirm whether any local Comcast system is carrying the new high-def networks.
TVPredictions.com did find a listing for E! HD in Comcast's Jacksonville, Florida lineup posted at Comcast's web site, but could not find G4 HD or Style HD listed anywhere.
There are also no reports that any other TV provider is carrying the three channels.
In addition to the three new HD channels, Comcast has launched separate HD channels for Versus and The Golf Channel, which previously shared one HD channel with golf programming available during the day and Versus' lineup of hockey and other sports on at night.
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Netflix to Blu-ray Subs: Screw You!
The online DVD rental service confesses that its spendthrift policies are leading to Blu-ray rental delays.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (December 17, 2008) -- On October 30, I reported here that Netflix was painfully slow in sending new Blu-ray releases to its customers. Time and time again, Netflix tagged new Blu-ray titles with the dreaded "Long Wait" or "Very Long Wait" label, meaning it could take weeks before the title is mailed to you.
On November 20, I wrote an update saying that I had had enough. I was dropping Netflix and signing up with Blockbuster's online rental service. Considering that I paid $18 a month for my Netflix subscription, which allowed me to have three different discs out at the same time, I wrote that you would think that the company would work harder to get my Blu-ray choices to me in a timely fashion.
Particularly since Netflix recently began charging Blu-ray subscribers an extra $1 a month for the 'privilege' of renting high-def discs!
Well, guess what? News.com now reports that Netflix is not only aware of the backlog problem, but they are just fine with it.
Steve Swasey, Netflix's spokesman, told the web site that the company simply doesn't have enough Blu-ray discs to distribute. When asked why Netflix doesn't buy more Blu-ray copies -- perhaps with the $1 a month fee they are charging its 500,000 Blu-ray subscribers -- Swasey said the company believes that wouldn't be "efficient."
"There is an expense to that," Swasey told News.com. "These things cost money. We deploy money where we think it's going to be most efficient to keep subscribers and investors happy. It's always check and balances."
Swasey added that the studios have been slow to release enough Blu-ray discs for rental services such as Blockbuster and Netflix. But the Netflix spokesman said his company isn't necessarily interested in buying them when they are available because of the cost.
Swasey also confessed that frequent renters are penalized for watching so many films.
"What we're doing is giving new releases to the person who hasn't rented as much," he said. "We've been doing this for a couple of years and fully disclose this in our terms of agreement. If we have a shortage of titles we do what we think is equitable and give the title to the person who hasn't rented as much or who hasn't gotten as much enjoyment from the service."
Folks, as I wrote in my earlier commentaries, Netflix is ripping you off. If you're a Blu-ray subscriber, Netflix is just taking your $1 a month and using it for whatever it wants, be it the company's digital download program or perhaps CEO Reed Hastings' salary. Who knows? It's certainly not going for more Blu-ray discs.
I urge everyone to dump Netflix ASAP and sign up with Blockbuster's online service. Thus far, Blockbuster has terrific, delivering almost every new release promptly.
So, Netflix, screw you!
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Comcast Sells Gift Cards For HD Service
The cable operator notes that many high-def owners don't watch HD.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (December 17, 2008) -- Comcast has launched a program permitting consumers to give gift cards that can be exchanged for High-Definition programming service.
In a press statement, the cable operator notes that recent studies indicate that at least one-third of HDTV owners are not actually watching high-def programming; they have not subscribed to a TV provider's service or installed an antenna to receive their local high-def signals.
Comcast says the gift card, which can be purchased in increments from $5 to $500 at comcast.com/giftcards, will encourage more people to watch HD.
“Holiday HDTV shoppers remember … HDTVs aren’t HD unless you get HD service," stated Derek Harrar, Comcast's senior vice president.
Despite that statement, high-def owners can watch HD without subscribing to a HD service by installing an antenna. However, without a pay service, such as one from Comcast, the HDTV owner can only watch his/her local high-def channels.
Comcast says the gift cards can also exchanged for the cable operator's voice or Internet service.
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Warner: Dark Knight Blu-ray Sells 1.7M Units Worldwide
But the studio does not release U.S. sales numbers.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (December 17, 2008) -- Warner Home Video said today that the Blu-ray edition of The Dark Knight sold 1.7 million copies worldwide during its first week after release.
The studio added that the sales total shattered previous sales records for the high-def disc format. Iron Man, starring Robert Downey Jr., was the previous leader in total Blu-ray disc sales.
Warner did not release U.S. or North American sales totals for the Blu-ray disc, which was released on December 9. Last week, the studio said 600,000 Blu-ray copies of The Dark Knight were sold the first day in North America and speculated that one million would be sold by the weekend.
Combining DVD and Blu-ray totals, Warner said the Batman film sold 13.5 million units worldwide the first week, which included consumer and rental sales.
"The Dark Knight is the best selling Blu-ray title in history and will become the best selling 2008 title overall this week," Warner said in a statement.
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Swanni Predicts: Blu-ray In 2009
Look for sub-$100 players; lower movie prices.
By Swanni
Editor's note: Over the next few weeks, Swanni will make several predictions for HDTV in 2009. Here is his fourth prediction.
Washington, D.C. (December 16, 2008) -- Since the launch of the high-def disc in the spring of 2006, I have issued several predictions on how quickly it would grow and which format would be ultimately successful. I am happy to report that nearly all of my forecasts have come true.
For instance, I first said in October 2006 that the Sony-backed Blu-ray would defeat the Toshiba-supported HD DVD format. (Last February, Toshiba pulled the plug on HS DVD, ceding victory to Blu-ray.) And in December 2007, I predicted that Warner Bros. would surprise the industry by supporting Blu-ray over HD DVD in early 2008. (The studio made my prediction come true at the January 2008 Consumer Electronics Show.)
So, I thought you would find it interesting to hear my four predictions for Blu-ray in 2009. And here they are:
Blu-ray Players For $99
I predicted correctly last year that Blu-ray player prices would fall under the $200 level during the 2008 holidays. But I think even lower prices are coming next year. Look for a $99 Blu-ray player as early as the Fall of 2009.
8-10 Million Standalone Blu-ray Players Sold
By most estimates, there will be roughly three million standalone Blu-ray players sold in 2008. ( A standalone player is one that just plays Blu-ray and standard-def DVDs, as opposed to a PlayStation 3, which is a gaming console and Blu-ray player.) But thanks to lower prices and positive word of mouth, Blu-ray player sales will really start to boom next year. Combining the PS3 and standalone Blu-ray players, more than 25 million U.S. homes will have Blu-ray capability by the end of 2009.
New Blu-ray Movies Will Average $20
Some new Blu-ray releases are priced at more than $30 per unit, nearly twice the price of the companion standard-def DVD. That's far too expensive for the average consumer -- and the studios know it. However, they are waiting for more people to get Blu-ray players before they significantly cut prices. It's basic economics. With volume comes lower prices. That will happen in 2009.
Toshiba Introduces a Blu-ray Player
Toshiba, the biggest booster of the HD DVD format, has stubbornly resisted calls to release its own Blu-ray player now that the format war is over. The company may be stubborn, but it's not dumb. With Blu-ray getting closer to reaching a mass audience, Toshiba will finally give in and join the party.
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Analyst: Blu-ray Taking Sales From DVDs
But the official says it could hamper the industry as a whole.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (December 16, 2008) -- The studios' heavy promotion of the Blu-ray high-def disc is having an adverse impact on standard-def DVD sales this fourth quarter.
That's according to Wall Street analyst Richard Greenfield, as reported by Home Media Magazine.
Greenfield, who works for Pali Capital, notes that retailers have significantly lowered prices on Blu-ray players this holiday season and expanded shelf space to carry the new set-tops. Consequently, he forecasts that standard DVD revenue will fall six percent in 2008.
Even worse for the industry, while Blu-ray sales are rising, the analyst said they are not expanding fast enough to make up for the dropping DVD sales.
“While positive long-term, the installed base of Blu-ray is simply not large enough to make up for lost floor space of standard DVD,” Greenfield wrote, according to Home Media Magazine.
There are other reasons why standard-def DVD sales are shrinking, as the home video industry as a whole has experienced slower sales in the past year.
Greenfield says Blu-ray sales are showing signs this holiday season of becoming a solid performer. He notes that the Blu-ray edition of The Dark Knight has likely already exceeded one million units in sales.
The analyst predicted that standalone Blu-ray player sales would reach 2.5 million units in 2008, but could double or triple in 2009. Those sales do not include the PlayStation 3, which has a Blu-ray player inside. He said there should be roughly eight million PS3's sold by year's end.
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Swanni Predicts: CBS to Promote Julie Chen At All Costs
The wife of the network's CEO seems to benefit from her convenient position.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (December 15, 2008) -- Editor's note: Over the next few weeks, Swanni will make several predictions for HDTV in 2009. Here is his third prediction.
Is Julie Chen one of your 'favorite' CBS personalities?
CBS's promotional department seems to think so.
In a commercial airing now for the network's new primetime game show, Million Dollar Password, (debuting Thursday night) Ms. Chen is prominently featured as a celebrity contestant while a voice-over gushes that you can see "your favorite CBS personalities" on the program. Chen's cheery face and bouncy body is seen during the commercial even more often than the show's host, Regis Philbin.
Hmmmm....
Oh, did I mention that Julie Chen is the wife of CBS CEO Les Moonves?
Once again, the network chief apparently is using his influence to promote, protect and peddle his wife to an unsuspecting audience. Chen, of course, is also the host of Big Brother, CBS' lackluster summer fill-in, and the co-host of the network's dismal morning show, The Early Show.
Okay, nepotism is nothing new. I understand that. But Big Brother's ratings over the years have been up and down, to be nice, while The Early Show is still stuck in third place behind ABC's Good Morning America and NBC's The Today Show.
CBS CEO Les Moonves and wife Julie Chen.
If Chen was anyone else's wife, would CBS be so kind to her and her programs? Would she be featured so prominently on yet another program?
I sincerely doubt it. Big Brother probably would have been cancelled long ago (rather than go on now for 10 seasons) while The Early Show would have been blessed with a new set of hosts and hostesses.
Now, you may ask why a web site on High-Definition is writing about this. Really, you are probably asking yourself, what does Julie Chen have to do with high-def?
Well, interestingly, Big Brother is not in HD. The Early Show is not in HD. And Million Dollar Password is not in HD.
CBS has been a pioneer in delivering shows in HD, but for some reason, all three shows featuring the CEO's wife are not in high-def.
Hmmm...Wonder why...
So, here's my prediction: Thanks to the mainstream media totally ignoring this outrageous ethical snafu, Moonves will continue to find ways to put his wife ahead of the network. Regardless of how poor the ratings are, programs featuring Julie Chen will not only be renewed, but they will be promoted as if they are the Super Bowl.
And something tells me that they won't be in crystal-clear HD.
Hmmmm......
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Swanni Predicts: NBC's Ratings Keep Falling Due to HD
The network's CEO is alienating the high-def audience.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (December 15, 2008) -- Editor's note: Over the next few weeks, Swanni will make several predictions for HDTV in 2009. Here is his second prediction.
On some nights, if you're a NBC viewer, you might think that this High-Definition thing is a figment of someone's imagination. The network's primetime lineup is often stuffed with non-HD, reality shows such as The Biggest Loser, Deal or No Deal, Momma's Boys and Dateline. Even first-run showings of theatrical films are often broadcast in standard-def.
No other broadcast network schedules fewer shows in high-def than NBC.
This is not a coincidence. NBC Universal CEO Jeff Zucker has publicly dissed HDTV in the past, suggesting that high-def owners don't really care if a show is in HD; if they like the show, they'll probably watch whether it's in HD or SD, Zucker has said.
NBC CEO Jeff Zucker.
"It's hard to say if viewers will be less interested in unscripted programming that's not in HD when the rest of the programming is in HD," Zucker said in 2006. "I think it's a fair question, but I'm not overly concerned about it at this point."
Consequently, Zucker, the Cheapest Man in Television, he has kept network spending down by loading up the schedule with non-scripted, non-HD reality shows. And there are reports that more are coming in 2009 as the network seeks to save money during the recession.
And that's just fine with Zuck; this guy has never met a budget cut he didn't like.
Of course, the funny thing (one of the few funny things left at NBC after the glory days of Must-See TV) is that the strategy has not been successful. NBC's ratings often place it in third or fourth place every week among the four major networks.
Oddly, General Electric, which owns NBC, doesn't seem too bothered. Zucker has apparently done an effective job of persuading his bosses that he has things under control. He's more nimble than his fictional counterpart, Jack Donaghy, from NBC's 30 Rock.
But wait until next year.
According to Nielsen, one-fourth of U.S. households now watch high-def regularly; that's twice as much as a year ago and the number is rising steadily.
And Nielsen and other research firms have found that high-def owners want to watch high-def programming, not standard-def shows done on the cheap.
By alienating 25 percent of the audience -- an audience that could hit one-third before the end of 2009 -- Zucker is guaranteeing that NBC's audience will shrink even further. When NBC airs Deal or No Deal, Biggest Loser or Dateline, many high-def viewers will switch the channel to something -- anything -- that happens to be in HD.
So, I predict that NBC's ratings will fall even more dramatically next year -- and I will expand that prediction to say that Jeff Zucker will be the industry's Biggest Loser.
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Swanni Predicts: Home 3-D Fails In 2009
The new technology will be limited to movie theaters.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (December 15, 2008) -- Editor's note: Over the next few weeks, Swanni will make several predictions for HDTV in 2009. Here is his first prediction.
If you listened to studio executives and some tech analysts, you would think that million of Americans will soon don goggles and start watching 3-D HD movies at homes.
Well, think again.
3-D technology is the latest buzz in the movie theater industry with studios releasing new movies such as the animated Aliens and Monsters (March release) in the format. In addition, the National Football League and the National Basketball Association are experimenting with displaying games in 3-D HD movie theaters in some markets.
But while impressive in movie theaters, 3-D HD is not ready for primetime in home theaters -- and it may not be for years to come. Americans are simply not ready -- nor inclined -- to wear special glasses while watching their favorite films at home. And new HDTVs that do not require the goggles will be hampered by conflicting industry standards that will make 3-D discs incompatible with certain sets.
There are now a handful of Blu-ray releases available in 3-D (Journey to the Center of the Earth, a Hannah Montana concert, to name two), but they can be difficult to watch due to inferior color displays and other technical glitches. Watching a 3-D Blu-ray movie is a very uncomfortable experience, despite the occasional impressive effect, and will simply lead to negative word of mouth about the technology.
So, I predict that 3-D HD will be a big bust for the home video industry in 2009. The technology will start to generate some interest in movie theaters, but even there, the analysts are overestimating its potential impact. For years to come, and perhaps forever, 3-D will appeal only to a niche audience. Most viewers will prefer to watch a movie without the special effects -- whether it's in the theater or at home.
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Dish Network Restores HD Stations In 11 Cities
The satcaster had ended an agreement with Young Broadcasting.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (December 15, 2008) -- Dish Network yesterday resumed broadcasting Young Broadcasting-owned local stations in 11 markets, including standard-def and high-def signals.
That's according to an article by Multichannel News and reports from TVPredictions.com readers across the country.
The two companies had broken off carriage talks late last week, leading to Dish Network taking the stations off the air on Thursday night. Dish officials claimed that Young was asking for "unreasonable" compensation to carry its local channels.
By law, a TV provider can not carry a local station without its permission, which has led to numerous disputes between providers and the stations over the last few years.
Multichannel News reports that it's unclear if the two companies have now reached an agreement, but the stations have returned to the air. Sometimes during carriage disputes, local stations will permit a TV provider to carry their signals if they believe an agreement is near.
The following Young stations were returned to the air yesterday:
Lansing, Mich (CBS affiliate)
Lafayette, La. (CBS affiliate)
Albany, N.Y (ABC affiliate)
Nashville, Tenn (ABC affiliate)
Knoxville, Tenn (ABC affiliate)
Green Bay, Wis (ABC affiliate)
Richmond, Va. (ABC affiliate)
Davenport, Iowa (NBC affiliate)
San Francisco (My Network)
Sioux Falls SD (CBS affiliate)
Rapid City, S.D. (CBS affiliate)
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Dish Network Drops HD Stations In 11 Cities
The satcaster fails to reach agreement with Young Broadcasting.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (December 11, 2008) -- Dish Network has dropped Young Broadcasting-owned local stations in 11 markets yesterday after retransmission negotiations between the companies broke down.
The decision means that Dish subscribers in the following cities will not be able to watch Young's standard-def and high-def signals:
Lansing, Mich.; Lafayette, La.; Albany, N.Y.; Nashville, Tenn.; Knoxville, Tenn.; Green Bay, Wis.; Richmond, Va.; Davenport, Iowa; San Francisco; and Sioux Falls and Rapid City, S.D.
Dish officials claim that Young is asking for "unreasonable" compensation to carry its local channels. By law, a TV provider can not carry a local station without its permission, which has led to numerous disputes between providers and the stations over the last few years.
By example, Dish now can not carry the Young-owned ABC affiliate in Albany or the Young-owned CBS affiliate in Green Bay.
“It is unfortunate that Young Broadcasting has forced us into this situation and caused this disruption to our customers,” said Eric Sahl, senior vice president of programming for DISH Network. “Our goal is to remain the best value for our customers and in order to do this, we need fair contracts with competitive pricing for the channels our customers want to watch. This is why we refuse to accept Young Broadcasting’s unreasonable terms.”
Dish's contract with Young Broadcasting expired on December 10. The broadcaster said in a statement that the satcaster charges subscribers to watch the local stations so it should compensate it.
There was no word from either company on whether negotiations will resume.
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