TiVo's Stock Soaring On Echo Victory
The DVR service wins its patent infringement case against EchoStar.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (January 31, 2008) -- TiVo's stock has jumped as much as 30 percent today following an appeal court ruling upholding its DVR patent judgment against EchoStar.
TiVo sued EchoStar in 2004, saying the satcaster violated its 'Time Warp' patent for a DVR software feature.
The Time Warp feature allows "the user to store selected television broadcast programs while the user is simultaneously watching or reviewing another program," according to TiVo's patent which was filed for almost 10 years ago.
A Texas jury decided in favor of TiVo in April 2006, awarding the company $73.9 million in damages. However, the case has been bogged down in appeals since then.
It appears that EchoStar's legal options have now been exhausted. If so, the satcaster would either have to pay TiVo the $73 million in damages or work out a licensing agreement with the company.
Today's decision also could strength TiVo's hand in negotiating licensing deals with other TV providers.
TiVo earlier today also announced a research agreement with CBS. The company said CBS would use its company's DVR data "to better keep audience attention during commercial breaks, and develop new and improved promotional strategies for time-shifted viewers to build audiences for its programs."
NBC signed a similar research deal with TiVo last November.
TiVo offers DVR services for both high-def and standard-def programming.
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News & Commentary
NAB's Digital TV Study 'Suspect'
The group representing local stations says local PSAs have been a hit.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (January 30, 2008) -- Local TV stations last year began airing commercials alerting viewers of next year's Digital TV transition.
Have the commercials been successful?
Well, the National Association of Broadcasters thinks so. The trade group for the local stations has released a study saying that consumer awareness of the digital transition has doubled in one year.
According to an article by TWICE Magazine, the NAB reports that 79 percent of consumers say they have “seen, read or heard something about the Feb. 17, 2009, transition to digital television."
A similar NAB survey conducted in January 2007 found that only 38 percent of people expressed awareness of the transition.
On February 17, 2009, all local broadcasters must switch their analog signals to digital which means viewers will need a Digital TV, a digital converter box or a pay TV subscription to watch television.
The federal government this month began accepting applications for $40 coupons for people to buy Digital TV converter boxes, which are expected to cost from $40-70.
The NAB study said the new study includes viewers who rely on off-air TV antennas to get their signals, the group that's most likely to need the converter boxes. In fact, the NAB says 83 percent of that group say they've heard of the transition.
“This is a big step toward our goal of reaching every American with information about the DTV transition,” said NAB CEO David Rehr. “The first phase of our consumer education campaign has been highly successful, and our next phase will focus on helping consumers learn more about the steps they need to take to receive a digital signal before Feb. 17, 2009.”
The local stations began airing the Public Service Announcements on the Digital TV transition in response to lawmakers who said they weren't doing enough to educate their viewers.
Commentary:
Sorry, I'm not buying this study.
The NAB does not say if consumers know what they need to do to prepare for the transition -- only that they've "seen, read or heard" something about it.
That's meaningless. Ask any group of people if they've "seen, read or heard" about almost anything and they will answer yes. What good is that? The real question is whether they are taking steps to be ready for the transition, which is highly doubtful.
(Plus, studies by more objective sources have shown that consumer awareness of the Digital TV transition may be 50 percent of what the NAB says it is.)
Sorry again, but I am also suspicious that the NAB suddenly produces a study saying that their local stations' PSA announcements have been effective.
In the research industry, you can get a study to say almost anything you want by simply phrasing the questions the right way. Or, by not asking certain questions that might produce an unwanted response.
I suspect that's what happened here.
The NAB wanted to show Congress and the Federal Communications Commission that it was doing its job to educate consumers on the transition.
So, it produced a study saying it had.
Big deal.
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DIRECTV's New HD Satellite to Launch In March
The satellite will expand the satcaster's capacity to 150 HD channels.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (January 30, 2008) -- DIRECTV 11, the satcaster's new satellite for High-Definition, is scheduled for launch in March.
The Boeing Company yesterday announced the delivery of the satellite to the Sea Launch Home Port in Long Beach, California.
The satellite is now scheduled for launch on a Sea Launch Zenit-3SL rocket in March.
Once operational, DIRECTV says the new satellite will expand its capacity to 150 HD national channels and 1,500 local high-def channels. DIRECTV now offers about 90 national HD channels and local HD channels in more than 70 markets.
The satcaster has not said when the satellite is expected to be ready, but it usually takes roughly 90 days following launch.
“Advanced satellites like DIRECTV 11 exemplify the superior technology that DIRECTV employs to deliver an unparalleled TV experience for its more than 16.6 million customers,” said Romulo Pontual, DIRECTV’s chief technology officer. “We are looking forward to the launch that will further strengthen DIRECTV’s position as the leader in HD.”
DIRECTV last year launched the first of three new satellites for high-def and other services, all of which will be built by Boeing.
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Report: HD DVD Sales Gain; Still Trail Blu-ray
Toshiba recently slashed player prices.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (January 29, 2008) -- For the week ending January 19, Blu-ray players outsold rival HD DVD even after the latter cut prices under $200.
That's according to new figures from the NPD Group, as reported by the web site, Digital Bits.
Blu-ray and HD DVD are rival formats competing for the new high-def disc audience.
According to the report, there were 16,496 standalone Blu-ray players sold during the week ending January 19, compared to 8,639 for HD DVD. (The numbers do not include sales of the Play Station 3, which has a Blu-ray player inside, or the HD DVD add-on for the XBox 360.)
If accurate, Blu-ray players captured 65 percent of the market for the week, compared to roughly 35 percent for HD DVD's.
While the margin is still impressive, it's a drop from the previous week when Blu-ray players netted 93 percent of overall standalone player sales. The reduction in HD DVD player prices was the likely reason for the change.
On January 14, Toshiba cut the suggested retail price of its entry-level HD-A3 player to $149.99; its HD-A30 player, which has 1080p output, to $199; and its HD-A35 model to $299. The lowest suggested retail price for a Blu-ray player is $399.
Standalone HD DVD players enjoyed a small lead over standalone Blu-ray players in 2007. However, Warner Bros. this month endorsed Blu-ray exclusively in the format war, giving the Sony-backed format a 5-2 'major studio' advantage over HD DVD. Both HD DVD player and disc sales have declined since the Warner decision.
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Will Toshiba's Profit Drop Hurt HD DVD?
The company says profits fell 25 percent.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (January 29, 2008) -- Toshiba today said its operating profit fell 25 percent in the third quarter due largely to falling prices of flash memory chips.
However, the decline could put more pressure on the company to abandon its stake in the sagging HD DVD high-def disc format.
HD DVD is competing with the Sony-backed Blu-ray format for the new high-def disc audience. However, since Warner Bros. endorsed Blu-ray this month, HD DVD player and disc sales have badly trailed its rival.
There are now only two major studios -- Universal and Paramount -- releasing films in the HD DVD format, compared to five for Blu-ray.
Toshiba's stock has fallen 11.5 percent since the Warner endorsement, according to Reuters.
The stock drop -- combined with overall company losses -- could force Toshiba's top executives to revisit its investment in HD DVD.
The company this month announced a sharp cut in HD DVD player prices and said it will air a HD DVD commercial during this Sunday's Super Bowl.
See:
Toshiba to Run HD DVD Ad During Super Bowl
But if those efforts do not produce immediate results, Toshiba will have to answer to shareholders already wondering about the company's shrinking bottom line.
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Ask Swanni: Why Doesn't HD DVD Give Up?
The high-def guru takes your questions.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (January 28, 2008) -- I get scores of e-mails every week from readers asking everything from whether they should buy a new HDTV to when will their TV provider add new high-def channels.
So, from time to time, I will publish my responses here in this column called, "Ask Swanni!" If you would like to submit a question for a future column, send it to: swann@tvpredictions.com
Now, here's Ask Swanni!
http://www.tvpredictions.com/askswanni012808.htm
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Toshiba to Run HD DVD Ad During Super Bowl
The 30-second spot could cost nearly $3 million.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (January 27, 2008) -- Toshiba has scheduled a 30-second commercial for HD DVD during the Feb. 3 Super Bowl.
That's according to an article in this week's Home Media Magazine.
The commercial will highlight Toshiba's HD-A3, HD-A30 and HD-A35 players, all of which received sharp price cuts in the last week. (The HD-A3 HD DVD player is now available for $127 at Amazon.com.)
Toshiba is the leading backer of HD DVD in the high-def disc format war against Blu-ray.
The company is apparently hoping the Super Bowl commercial will spark new interest in HD DVD, which has seen both player and disc sales sag this month after Warner Bros. announced it was endorsing Blu-ray.
(With Warner, Blu-ray has five major studios supporting it exclusively while only two back HD DVD.)
However, Toshiba won't acknowledge that the commercial, which will likely cost around $2.7 million, is a make-or-break spot for the format.
"It has always been our strategy to reach HDTV owners, using advertising on football is just one vehicle," Toshiba's Jodi Sally told Home Media Magazine. "We had advertised on (NBC's) Sunday Night Football all season long."
Home Media reports that the Blu-ray Disc Association declined to run a Super Bowl ad because it could not produce an appropriate spot in time.
"I certain admire (Toshiba's) chutzpah," said Andy Parsons, a spokesman for the Blu-ray group. "Running a Super Bowl ad is not likely to convince consumers that HD DVD will win the format war."
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NetFlix Admits High-Def Disc Shortage
But the by-mail rental service says the problem will be fixed soon.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (January 24, 2008) -- Have you had problems lately renting Blu-ray and HD DVD movies from NetFlix?
Well, you're not alone.
The popular by-mail DVD rental service acknowledges that it's experiencing a "slowdown" in distributing new Blu-ray and HD DVD releases to its customers.
Consequently, subscribers trying to rent recent Blu-ray and HD DVD releases such as 3:10 to Yuma and The Bourne Ultimatum are getting messages at NetFlix's web site saying it will be a "very long wait" before they are mailed out.
"The studios are not replicating (discs) as fast and that's causing the slowdown," Steve Swasey, a NetFlix spokesman, told TVPredictions.com today.
However, Swasey said he expects the studios to pick up the pace shortly.
"This is short term. It should be fixed in the next couple of weeks," he said.
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NetFlix: Blu-ray Has the Advantage
But the company says the format war is not over.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (January 24, 2008) -- NetFlix CEO Reed Hastings says it appears that Blu-ray has the advantage in the high-def disc format war against HD DVD.
In an investors call yesterday following release of its fourth quarter report, Hastings added that consumer adoption of Blu-ray will "accelerate" if the format can maintain that advantage.
"The milestones to watch for are Blu-ray player prices falling below $200, and Universal and Paramount also announcing their support for Blu-ray," he said. "If these two milestones are reached, the consumer adoption of Blu-ray will take off. This would be a positive for the studios and a positive for Netflix, as it would fuel another decade of robust disc-based entertainment. "
The by-mail DVD rental service now offers both Blu-ray and HD DVDs, but Hastings clearly would prefer a single format solution. Following Warner Bros.' endorsement of Blu-ray earlier this month, analysts have speculated that Blu-ray will ultimately win the battle.
(Five major studios now exclusively release their films on Blu-ray while only two -- Universal and Paramount -- release their movies on HD DVD.)
But Hastings cautioned that the format war is not over yet.
"Definitely the winds are shifting to Blu-ray but nothing done yet," he said.
The executive added that Blu-ray rentals at NetFlix have seen "sharp growth" since the Warner endorsement.
Still, high-def disc rentals are still a small portion of NetFlix's overal business, he said.
"Maybe a percent of subs yes, but meaningful percentage of shipments, not particularly because there is not that much content released on it yet. But in terms of subs it’s definitely growing. I would say we have a big crew of Internet connected early adopter, savvy subscribers. So they are going to be all relatively early," Hastings told the investors group.
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Study: Warner Deal Boosts Blu-ray Sales
HD DVD's market share drops dramatically.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (January 23, 2008) -- Sales of Blu-ray players far outpaced rival HD DVD in the week after Warner Bros. announced it was endorsing Blu-ray in the high-def disc format war.
According to NPD Group, 21,770 Blu-ray players were sold during the week ending January 12, compared to just 1,758 HD DVD players. (The numbers were first reported by the web site, Digital Bits.)
Warner announced on January 4 that it would support Blu-ray exclusively, giving the format a 5-2 'major studio' advantage over HD DVD.
In the week prior to the Warner announcement, Blu-ray sold 15,257 units compared to 14,558 for HD DVD.
The sales data is more evidence that Warner's decision to support Blu-ray could ultimately end the format war. Until now, standalone HD DVD players outsold standalone Blu-ray players, albeit by a small margin. (This does not include sales of the PlayStation 3, which has a Blu-ray player inside. When the PS3 is included, Blu-ray has a commanding lead.)
Toshiba, the leading HD DVD backer, last week announced that it was dramatically dropping prices on HD DVD players, with some now under $200. The next week of data should indicate whether Toshiba's decision will slow Blu-ray's new sales dominance.
An earlier study showed that Blu-ray captured 85 percent of the high-def disc market in the week after the Warner decision.
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Universal: No Plans to Drop HD DVD
But the studio keeps door open for Blu-ray truce.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (January 22, 2008) -- Universal Studios' Ken Graffeo says there are currently "no plans" to drop HD DVD and endorse Blu-ray.
Industry observers have been closely watching Universal and Paramount since Warner decided earlier this month to endorse Blu-ray, giving it a 5-2 'major studio' advantage over HD DVD. (Universal and Paramount are now the only studios supporting HD DVD exclusively in the high-def DVD war.)
But in an interview with Beta News, Graffeo, an Universal executive vice president who also serves as the co-president of the HD DVD promotional group, says the studio is not changing its strategy at this time.
"This is business as usual for us and there are no plans to make any changes," he said in the interview. "We just made an announcement of our new HD DVD titles yesterday, with American Gangster. We also have a lot of other things planned. It's business as usual."
Despite the comment, Graffeo left the door open for a possible truce between supporters of the two high-def disc formats.
"Well, I'm never going to say it never can be done. I think everyone would like to see things work out, and I don't think anyone has any ill intention in this," he said. "I think anything is possible, and again it comes back to the consumer who has the final voice."
The Universal executive was also asked if other major studios might endorse HD DVD if the format sold more players. Toshiba recently announced a series of price cuts on HD DVD players.
"I can't speak for the other studios, because I don't know how they are thinking. But what was very encouraging is that when we were at CES (Consumer Electronics Show) we met with a lot of retailers. And the retailers openly said, that as much as they hate having two formats they are not making any changes, because they want to wait for what the consumer does. We've always said we want to follow the consumer," he said.
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Dish Network to Offer HD-Only Package
The lineup will include 70 channels.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (January 22, 2008) -- Dish Network next week will introduce a new programming package that will only include High-Definition channels.
That's according to an article by Home Media Magazine.
The new package, which will be available on February 1, will include more than 70 national HD channels and will cost $29.99 a month.
However, the $29.99 package will not include some popular standard-def favorites such as E! and the Sci-Fi Channel unless the subscriber adds them in a different package.
Home Media reports that Dish's HD-only package will include all high-def channels currently offered in the satcaster's 'DishHD Essential' and 'Ultimate' packages, except for premium movie and sports channels such as HBO HD, Showtime HD and NBA HD.
Those channels must be purchased separately.
Dish is expected to offer a local HD channel option where available.
The satcaster said this month that it expects to increase its national high-def lineup from 76 to 100 HD channels by year's end.
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Blu-ray vs. HD DVD: When Journalists Go Wrong
As they say, don't believe everything you read.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (January 21, 2008) -- As a longtime journalist, I am reluctant to criticize my fellow scribes for errors and other transgressions. It's a tough business and mistakes come with the territory.
However, in the last week, I have come across two reports that are so wrong -- so dumb headed -- that they demand a public airing so their wounds against the truth can be properly healed.
Let's start with Sunday's edition of The Washington Post in which tech columnist Mike Musgrove offers a stinging critique of the high-def disc format war between Blu-ray and HD DVD.
Musgrove's report suggests that digital downloads will soon replace the hard disc so people shouldn't care who wins the Blu-ray/HD DVD war.
I disagree that digital downloads, particularly for high-def, will be ready for primetime anytime soon. But it's a legitimate argument to make.
However, in attempting to make his point, Musgrove offers a whopper of a statement that couldn't be supported by any analysis, no matter how subjective:
"I've found that I can't really tell the difference between the picture cranked out by a Blu-ray player and the picture delivered by an 'upconverting' DVD player designed to make standard DVDs look their best on high-definition sets," he writes.
Now, anyone who has seen a high-def disc player in action -- as well as an upconverter player -- knows that the high-def playback is far superior. (George Ou of ZDNet recently offered a scientific analysis proving this as well.) The high-def playback is, well, high-def while the upconversion merely improves the picture on a standard-def DVD; while it's improved, it's not remotely close to a HD-quality image.
There is simply no comparison, which makes one wonder why Musgrove said there is.
I won't question his motives, but I can only guess that either he doesn't own a high-def TV (and has only seen a Blu-ray or HD DVD for a short period of time at a convention or some other event) or his HDTV isn't properly tuned.
Or he needs to make an appointment with a nearby Pearle Vision.
Now, for example two:
Syndicated columnist Don Lindich is reporting that Sony, the leader backer of Blu-ray, recently paid Fox and Warner Bros. to support the high-def format. Lindich says Fox was ready to jump ship and support HD DVD until Sony kicked in with the money. At that point, Warner decided to take a payoff as well.
Lindich quotes "sources" for his report without naming them or even characterizing them from coming from a specific unit.
I will not challenge his report -- it may even be true. But I have to point out that Lindich, a longtime HD DVD booster, also reported less than two weeks before the Consumer Electronics Show that Warner Bros. would attend HD DVD's big media event at the Las Vegas conference.
The columnist said HD DVD's attendance was evidence that Warner would not shed its neutrality in the race and support Blu-ray. (This reporter, and a few others, predicted that Warner would endorse Blu-ray.)
As we now know, Warner not only did not attend the HD DVD event -- but the event was cancelled 48 hours prior because Warner announced it had...decided to endorse Blu-ray.
Lindich was wrong about the HD DVD event. Spectacularly wrong.
So I am surprised that several online publications are now reporting his claim that Sony paid off Fox and Warner. -- without noting that his HD DVD "sources" in the past apparently led him astray.
Maybe they are leading him astray again?
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Some Retailers Tilting Toward Blu-ray
Stores are reducing HD DVD titles.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (January 21, 2008) -- Some key retailers are now expanding their Blu-ray inventories while reducing their HD DVD titles, according to Video Business.
The publication reports that Warner Bros.' endorsement this month of Blu-ray has prompted retailers to reexamine the high-def disc format war. (Five major studios now support Blu-ray exclusively compared to just two for HD DVD.)
Thanks to Warner, some executives are now predicting that consumers will demand fewer HD DVD films. Additionally, some retailers believe that a shift to Blu-ray could help end the format war.
For instance, Trans World, which operates more than 800 F.Y.E. stores, will now offer more Blu-ray titles than HD DVD.
“We are waiting to hear more about what (HD DVD) hardware manufacturers decide to do, but I think one thing we can all agree on as retailers, is that consumer confusion is leading to a delay in buying a format,” Trans World's Mark Higgins tells Video Business. “They don’t want to buy into another Betamax. As retailers, we need to simplify things for the consumers as much as we can with merchandising one format. We don’t want to be biased, but that is clearly the direction that high-def production looks to be going.”
Hastings Entertainment, another electronics chain, says stores will likely soon shift to Blu-ray.
“Based on the way the playing field is shaping up, you’ll see BD with more prominence in stores,” said Victor Fuentes, Hastings vice president.
Despite the reports, larger retailers such as Best Buy and Circuit City have not announced a shift in inventories. And Best Buy says that both formats are still alive and well.
"It would be irresponsible to (say the war) is over when it's not yet," said Best Buy spokesman Brian Lucas said.
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ZDNet: HD Downloads Not Really HD
Site's technical director says the picture quality is below an DVD upconverter player.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (January 18, 2008) -- From Microsoft to Apple, companies are launching new services that purport to offer High-Definition movies and TV shows via high-speed Internet downloads.
However, ZDNet technical director George Ou says the picture quality on the HD downloads is not as good as the PQ on a DVD 1080p upconverter player.
In a column just posted at ZDNet, Ou writes that high-def downloads has become an industry "big lie," meaning they really don't offer HD-quality images.
He contends that HD downloads must be compressed so that the bit rate used in the transmission is typically just 1.5 to 4 mbps for 720p H.264.
In layman's terms, that means that the signal strength -- and picture quality -- is far lower than what you'll see on a Blu-ray or HD DVD high-def disc. It's even lower than what's offered by cable and satellite operators and a good DVD upconverter player.
"There’s just one minor little problem (with HD downoads), it’s not HD," Ou says. "These so-called HD movies use very low bit-rates compared to even standard definition DVDs let alone something like HD DVD or Blu-ray DVD."
Microsoft is now offering high-def downloads via its XBox 360 gaming console while Apple just added them to its Apple TV device. Additionally, Netflix and several other companies are planning to offer HD download services.
But ZDNet's technical director says the companies are just using "marketing" techniques to make it sound like the downloads are really HD.
"Marketing will push the nicer sounding “720p” aspect of the video but they don’t tell you it’s way too compressed to offer good video fidelity. Blu-ray has a maximum bit-rate of 40 mbps while HD DVD offers 28 mbps. Over the air broadcasts can be up to 24 mbps though they’re typically between 16 to 20 mbps," he says.
Ou adds: "Under most normal circumstances, the low bit-rate 720p so-called 'HD' video will be inferior though many companies are betting that consumers won’t know any better. So the bottom line is that so-called “HD” video from Microsoft’s XBOX360 HD download service and Apple’s new Apple TV service or any other web download service is simply not HD by any respectable definition."
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DIRECTV Raising Prices By 4 Percent
The increase will include high-def service.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (January 18, 2008) -- DIRECTV next month will raise its monthly program prices by roughly four percent.
That's according to an article by Multichannel News.
The publication reports that the increase will cover several packages including its Choice and Plus HD DVR offerings.
It's unclear if DIRECTV's new HD Extra Pack will also get an increase. The satcaster is expected to release more details shortly.
The price hike is expected to go into effect on February 27.
Dish Network, DIRECTV's chief satellite rival, earlier this month announced that it's freezing the price on its DishDVR Advantage offer until February 2009.
However, Dish will raise prices on other packages by an average of eight percent, according to Multichannel News.
“We’ve frozen prices on some of our most popular packages,” Dish spokeswoman Kathie Gonzalez told the publication. “Unfortunately, we cannot offset the unavoidable costs of increased television programming fees, which were more than 5% in 2007.”
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Apple TV: Wall Street Gets It Wrong Again
Financial analysts take a second morning view of Apple's new HD download service.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (January 17, 2008) -- Apple on Tuesday added High-Definition movies to its iTunes store and lowered the price of its Apple TV set-top to $229.
Apple TV owners can now download the high-def movies from iTunes and watch them on their widescreen TVs, company CEO Steve Jobs said at the Macworld conference.
The announcement sent shares of video retailer Blockbuster plunging 17 percent on Tuesday due to fears that Apple might dominate the home entertainment category. Financial analysts hailed Apple's new service as revolutionary.
But it appears now that Wall Street is already recovering from its intoxication with Jobs' initial announcement. Blockbuster's stock yesterday jumped 17.8 percent after analysts started offering second-day opinions on Apple's new service.
"Our sense is that only a small number of consumers would be willing to pay the extra cost and add another set-top box to their living rooms," JPMorgan analyst Barton Crockett said yesterday, referring to the Apple TV set-top.
Michael Pachter, an analyst with Wedbush Morgan Securities, said Blockbuster analysts and investors initially "panicked" at the Apple news.
"They thought if Apple is in the market, they're going to own it," he said, according to Video Business. "They realized today, no they're not."
Of course, if the analysts and investors had read TVPredictions.com on Tuesday, cooler heads may have prevailed a bit sooner.
In a commentary posted here Tuesday, I pointed out the many flaws with Apple TV and its high-def download service, including America's "set-top fatigue."
Crockett is right about people not wanting to add another TV-based set-top to the living room -- but I have been saying that for a year.
This is not the first time that Wall Street has gone off the deep end on new technology services, particularly when they come from industry superstars like Apple.
For years, analysts said TiVo would dominate the living room; it hasn't. They said Interactive TV would be a huge hit; it wasn't. They said Apple's video iPod would lead to millions of Americans watching TV on 2.5-inch screens; hardly -- Nielsen says only two percent of all content on video iPods is actually video. (The rest is good old audio, which the iPod does so well.).
And I could name another 50 examples.
In general, Wall Street analysts don't understand what the average consumer wants when it comes to technology because they live in an echo chamber. They talk among themselves and with other tech-savvy people where they are based, which are largely urban areas such as Manhattan.
They think technology is cool; fun; and easy-to-use. Well, it's cool and fun all right -- but often NOT easy-to-use, convenient or needed.
But whether it's TiVo, Apple TV or any other new fad, analysts have a tendency to immediately pronounce it as the next big thing and urge their clients to invest.
My advice to you: Buyer beware.
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Blu-ray Pummels HD DVD In Disc Sales
The Sony-backed format pulls 85 percent of weekly sales.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (January 17, 2008) -- If this were a boxing match, HD DVD was just knocked down.
Again.
Home Media Magazine reports that Blu-ray last week captured 85 percent of high-def disc sales compared to HD DVD's 15 percent.
Blu-ray discs have consistently outsold HD DVD by a 2-1 margin for the last year, but last week's numbers reflect the greatest disparity yet in the format war.
Even worse for HD DVD, Home Media Magazine writes that the top 10 high-def disc sellers were all Blu-ray. The best-selling HD DVD, The Kingdom, sold just 10 percent as many discs as the best-selling Blu-ray title, 3:10 to Yuma.
The numbers are the first indicator of the damage done to HD DVD by Warner Bros' endorsement of Blu-ray on January 4.
The Warner decision gave Blu-ray a 5-2 'major studio' advantage over HD DVD and prompted widespread speculation that HD DVD can't survive the format war.
Despite HD DVD woes, Paramount and Universal, which still back the format exclusively, are expected to soon announce several new releases.
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Adult Film Studio to Dump HD DVD
The studio now has about 20 titles in the format.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (January 16, 2008) -- Digital Playground, a leading adult film studio, says it plans to stop releasing titles in the HD DVD high-def disc format by year's end.
That's according to an article by the German web site Heise Online.
Digital Playground has released approximately 20 titles in HD DVD, but has recently started to offer movies in Blu-ray as well.
A year ago, Digital Playground -- and its CEO, Joone -- was blasting the Blu-ray high-def disc format as being anti-porn.
Joone said Sony, the leading supporter of Blu-ray, was purposely blocking adult film studios from making copies of their movies on Blu-ray. However, he says the studio has recently found independent production companies to help it make Blu-ray copies.
In an interview with Heise, Joone noted that Blu-ray disc sales are outpacing HD DVD by a 2-1 margin.
The adult film executive also cited the recent endorsement of Blu-ray by Warner Bros. and the ongoing success of the Play Station 3, which has a Blu-ray player inside, as reasons for dumping HD DVD.
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Why HD DVD Shouldn't Quit -- Yet
Toshiba owes it to its supporters to try something new.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (January 15, 2008) -- Since Warner Bros.' endorsement of Blu-ray this month, industry vultures (media and analysts) have been flying around Toshiba headquarters demanding to know when it will pull the plug on HD DVD.
The vultures are pointing out that the Blu-ray high-def disc format now has five major studios behind it compared to HD DVD's two.
And rumors are flying that Paramount and Universal may soon leave HD DVD and join Blu-ray.
Consequently, the vultures say, Toshiba, the leading backer of HD DVD, should bow out now because it can't possibly win.
Toshiba's announcement this week that it's lowering HD DVD player prices is just prolonging the inevitable, in their view.
Well, I agree that Blu-ray is the likely winner in this battle -- and that victory will probably become official by mid-summer.
However, I don't blame Toshiba for trying something new. The company has invested considerable money and time since the format's launch in the spring of 2006. It would be foolish not to give it another shot.
Toshiba owes it to itself -- and the hundreds of thousands of people who have purchased HD DVD players to date. Who knows? Maybe the lower prices will suddenly attract a mass audience. Not likely, but it's worth a shot.
So, kudos to Toshiba for not giving up. (Microsoft could learn a few lessons here; once an outspoken supporter of HD DVD, the software titan has suddenly gone meely-mouthed on the subject.)
If the effort fails, Toshiba will have plenty of time to bow out gracefully. If it doesn't, we still have a battle on our hands.
So, vultures, fly away and let the marketplace take over.
[ 36 comments ]
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Will HDTV Save Apple TV?
Apple today announces it's juicing up the set-top with new high-def features and a new price.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (January 15, 2008) -- Apple today gave its disappointing Internet TV device a face lift, adding High-Definition movies and lowering the price to $229.
At this week's Macworld conference, Apple CEO Steve Jobs said the company is unveiling new software for the Apple TV, allowing owners to rent movies from the iTunes store which can be played back on a widescreen HDTV.
The ITunes movie catalog will consist of more than 1,000 titles including more than 100 in high-def.
Jobs also said the set-top's price will be lowered from $299 to $229.
"With the new Apple TV and iTunes Movie Rentals, movie lovers can rent DVD-quality or stunning HD movies from their couch with just a click of a button," said Jobs. "No more driving to the video store or waiting for DVDs to arrive in the mail."
Apple introduced the Apple TV last spring, but sales have lagged, reaching less than 500,000, according to news reports. The set-top can send PC-based audio and video files directly to a widescreen TV without a PC connection.
Many analysts have pointed to the device's lack of high-def content as a reason for its disappointing sales. Consequently, Apple was expected to announce a high-def feature at this week's Macworld.
Jobs said the standard-def movies will cost $3.99 for new releases and $2.99 for older titles; for high-def, the cost will be $4.99 for newer titles with $3.99 for older films.
The software enabling the movie rentals will be provided free of charge to existing Apple TV owners.
The new $229 Apple TV will be available in two weeks, the company said.
Commentary:
Apple's decision to lower Apple TV's price to $229 is eerily similar to Toshiba's announcement on Monday that it's lowering the price on its HD DVD players.
When you're losing -- and losing bad -- you lower the price.
And with Apple TV's sales numbers to date, it's been a loser.
However, even at $229, Apple TV will struggle to generate significant sales,
Americans have demonstrated that they have "set-top fatigue,"; their interest in buying yet another TV set-top is limited at best. Just ask Moviebeam, or even the retail division of TiVo.
Set-top fatigue is one of the reasons why Blu-ray and HD DVD player sales have lagged as well; it's not just the format war. Prices need to be lower to persuade consumers to give a new TV set-top service a chance, particularly in a down economy.
If Apple really wants Apple TV to succeed, $229 is a good start. And, adding the high-def movies is a no-brainer.
But most consumers will decide that they can get those HD (and SD) movies from more convenient (and easier-to-use) sources such as cable's Video on Demand, premium movie channels and your basic DVD player. (And, in time, even the Blu-ray players will be under $200, if not lower than that.)
Plus, they won't have to invest in a new product that seems foreign to them, such as the Apple TV device.
Consequently, I stick to my prediction that Apple TV will be a bust.
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Toshiba Cuts HD DVD Prices
The high-def disc format is battling rival Blu-ray.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (January 14, 2008) -- Toshiba said today that it will slash prices on HD DVD players and expand its marketing campaign for the high-def disc format.
The announcement comes a week after Warner Bros. said it would endorse Blu-ray in the high-def disc format war. (Blu-ray and HD DVD are competing formats for the new high-def disc audience.)
The move gave Blu-ray a 5-2 'major studio' advantage over HD DVD -- and has led to analyst speculation that Blu-ray will be the eventual winner.
But Toshiba said it's dropping the suggested retail price of its entry-level HD-A3 player to $149.99; its HD-A30 player, which has 1080p output, to $199; and its HD-A35 model to $299.
The entry-level HD DVD player is now more than $200 less than the lowest-priced Blu-ray player.
Toshiba, the leading backer of the HD DVD format, added that it will launch joint advertising campaigns with supporting studios to "spotlight the superior benefits
of HD DVD as well as the benefits HD DVD brings to a consumer's current DVD library by upconverting standard DVDs via the HDMI(TM) output to near high
definition picture quality."
"HD DVD is the best way to watch movies in High Definition," said Jodi Sally, vice president of marketing for Toshiba. "Our HD DVD players not only play back approximately 800 HD DVD titles available worldwide and deliver an entirely new level of entertainment but also enhance the picture quality to near high definition on legacy DVD titles by all studios. In short, we added high def to DVD which already is the defacto standard format created and approved by the DVD Forum that consists of more than two hundred companies."
[ 22 comments ]
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Did DIRECTV Fool HDTV Viewers?
The satcaster said it would offer 100 HD channels by the end of 2007, but fell short of the mark.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (January 13, 2008) -- DIRECTV last year launched a marketing campaign boasting that it would offer 100 HD channels by the end of 2007.
Problem is, the satcaster fell short of the target, ending with almost 90 high-def channels.
But DIRECTV CEO Chase Carey says the '100 HD Channel' campaign was a huge success, generating more subs and better-paying customers.
"The marketing group for DIRECTV did a very good job at sort of having a message that resonated with the marketplace," Carey told an investors conference, according to MediaPost.com. "The 100 channels was relatable, was understandable -- and, I think, grabbed people."
DIRECTV told MediaPost.com that it did not reach the 100 mark because some channels didn't launch high-def networks as expected.
However, the satcaster could have increased its total by adding from up to two dozen HD channels that have already launched, including a 15-channel suite from Voom Networks.
MediaPost.com writes that Carey didn't refer to DIRECTV's failure to hit the 100 mark in his address before the investors.
Although DIRECTV failed to offer 100 HD channels by the end of 2007, Carey continued to say it would hit the century mark up until September.
[ 57 comments ]
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CES 2008: 10 Winners & Losers
Which companies are going home ahead of the game?
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (January 10, 2008) -- The Consumer Electronics Show is more than a convention. It's an opportunity for companies to position themselves as leaders in their respective categories.
And with the media -- and more than 140,000 attendees -- watching, there's a lot at stake.
So, with today's close of this year's CES, here are my winners and losers of the 2008 CES in the category of High-Definition TV:
http://www.tvpredictions.com/winlose011008.htm
[ 13 comments ]
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Will Universal & Paramount Kill HD DVD?
Variety reports that the two studios may be ready to endorse Blu-ray.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (January 10, 2008) -- Universal and Paramount, the last two major studios backing HD DVD, could soon switch to Blu-ray, according to Variety Magazine.
The publication reports that Universal's commitment to release titles on HD DVD has expired. Additionally, Paramount, which endorsed HD DVD last August, has an "out clause" that says it can break the agreement if Warner Bros. endorses Blu-ray.
Warner announced last Friday that would shed its neutrality stance in the high-def disc format war and back Blu-ray. The move gives Blu-ray a 5-2 'major studio' advantage over HD DVD.
Variety writes that neither Universal and Paramount are quite ready to make the switch to Blu-ray. For instance, Universal has several HD DVD promotional ready to roll out. But both studios are closely reviewing plans to endorse Blu-ray.
Variety also notes that CE retailers could push HD DVD's supporters to drop out of the battle by deciding to carry Blu-ray only.
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