Make your voice heard on High-Definition TV!

Best Buy to 'Focus' On Blu-ray 
Best Buy to 'Focus' On Blu-ray
The retailer says it will feature Blu-ray products, but will still carry some HD DVD items.
By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (February 11, 2008) -- Best Buy late today gave Blu-ray a semi-endorsement over HD DVD in the high-def format war.

The retailer said that it will recommend that its customers choose Blu-ray over HD DVD, according to an article by Reuters.

But Best Buy added that although it would prominently feature Blu-ray discs and players in stores, it would still carry some HD DVD items.

"Because we believe that Blu-ray is fast emerging as that single format, we have decided to focus on Blu-ray products," Best Buy COO Brian Dunn said in a statement.

The Best Buy news follows an earlier announcement today from NetFlix that it would back Blu-ray exclusively by year's end. The twin announcements could put more pressure on Toshiba, the leading supporter of the HD DVD format, to drop out.

Best Buy said it would place more emphasis on Blu-ray at retail starting in March.


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NetFlix to Back Blu-ray 
NetFlix to Back Blu-ray
The by-mail DVD rental service says the industry has picked a winner.
By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (February 11, 2008) -- NetFlix today drove another nail in HD DVD's coffin by announcing it will support Blu-ray exclusively in the high-def disc format war.

The by-mail DVD rental service, which has more than six million subscribers, has offered movies in both HD DVD and Blu-ray. However, the company today said the industry has "picked a winner" in Blu-ray.

NetFlix noted that the majority of the major Hollywood studios have decided to support Blu-ray exclusively, with Warner Bros. last month the most recent one to do so.

"As of (NetFlix) will purchase only Blu-ray discs and will phase out by roughly year's end the alternative high-def format, HD DVD, developed by Toshiba," the company said in a release.

NetFlix officials said the format war has slowed consumer acceptance of the new high-def disc.
"The prolonged period of competition between two formats has prevented clear communication to the consumer regarding the richness of the high-def experience versus standard definition," said Ted Sarandos, chief content officer for Netflix. "We're now at the point where the industry can pursue the migration to a single format, bring clarity to the consumer and accelerate the adoption of high-def. Going forward, we expect that all of the studios will publish in the Blu-ray format and that the price points of high-def DVD players will come down significantly. These factors could well lead to another decade of disc-based movie watching as the consumer's preferred means."

NetFlix said the majority of its high-def disc users have opted to rent Blu-ray over HD DVD. The company says it now stocks more than 400 Blu-ray titles.


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Study: Digital TV Switch May Rob Millions of Signals 
Study: Digital TV Switch May Rob Millions of Signals
Market research firm says the government is underestimating the problem.
By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (February 11, 2008) -- A new study by market research firm Centris says roughly six million people with Digital TV receivers may still be unable to watch TV next year.

The nation is scheduled to switch to all-digital signals on February 17, 2009. But Centris says that gaps in broadcast coverage areas could mean that 5.9 million homes would receive fewer channels than they do now.

Additionally, even viewers who buy Digital TV converters could also experience signal disruption -- and may be forced to get off-air antennas even if they subscribe to a cable or satellite service.

The group adds that the federal government is downplaying the difficulties in making the switch from analog to digital.

On February 17, 2009, all local broadcasters must switch their analog signals to digital which means viewers will need a Digital TV, a digital converter box or a pay TV subscription to watch television.

The feds are offering two $40 coupons for consumers to buy the converter boxes, which are expected to range in price from $40 to $70. The boxes will enable an analog TV to display the new digital signals.

Although federal officials have said the converter boxes should ensure no signal disruption, Centris said its study found that digital signals will not travel as far as believed, particularly in areas populated by trees and mountains.

The company estimates that as many as 10 percent of homes in St. Louis could lose digital reception due to area hills, with the Philadelphia area losing five percent.

"For the people with rabbit-ear antennas, I would say at least 50 percent won't get the channels they were getting," the study said, according to the Boston Globe.

The Centris study adds more fuel to the argument that the Digital TV transition will leave millions without TV next year. Some lawmakers have also expressed fear that seniors and low-income residents will not hear about the transition and therefore fail to get new Digital TVs or digital converter boxes.


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DIRECTV Adds Local HD to 4 Markets 
DIRECTV Adds Local HD to 4 Markets
The satcaster now has local high-def in 76 cities.
By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (February 8, 2008) -- DIRECTV has added local High-Definition TV channels to four new markets.

With the addition, the satcaster says local HD is now available in 76 cities, representing nearly 76 percent of U.S. TV households.

DIRECTV is expected to launch a new satellite this spring that will expand its capacity for local HD.

The new markets now receiving local HD channels are:

Paducah, Kentucky
The following broadcast networks are now available in HD: KFVS/CBS, WPSD/NBC, KBSI/FOX and WSIL/ABC.

Wichita, Kansas
The following broadcast networks are now available in HD: KAKE/ABC, KWCH/CBS and KSAS/FOX. DIRECTV says it's still working to add the remaining broadcast channels, such as NBC.

Louisville, Kentucky
The following broadcast networks are now available in HD: WHAS/ABC, WLKY/CBS, WDRB/FOX and WAVE/NBC.

Cedar Rapids-Waterloo, Iowa
The following broadcast networks are now available in HD: KGAN/CBS, KFXA/FOX and KWWL/NBC. DIRECTV says it's still working to add the remaining networks.


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NetFlix Could Raise High-Def DVD Prices 
NetFlix Could Raise High-Def DVD Prices
The by-mail rental service says a format resolution could increase demand.
By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (February 7, 2008) -- NetFlix could raise rental prices on High-Definition DVDs if there's an end to the format war between Blu-ray and HD DVD.

That's according to an article by Video Business.

NetFlix currently allows subscribers to include Blu-ray and HD DVD discs in its regular monthly rental plan; the inclusion of the high-def discs does not require an extra fee.

However, Barry McCarthy, NetFlix's chief financial officer, says an end to the Blu-ray/HD DVD format war could increase demand for the discs, causing the company to raise prices. Some analysts have said Blu-ray will emerge as the single format before year's end.

“If a winner emerges and we experience some margin compression if a large number of subscribers rent in high-def, we’ll weight the options of increasing prices,” McCarthy said, according to Video Business.

The publication reports that McCarthy made his comments at the Thomas Weisel Partners Technology, Telecom & Internet Conference in San Francisco this week.

The high-def disc industry is already an issue with NetFlix with the company telling TVPredictions.com last month that it's having trouble meeting demand. Consequently, NetFlix subscribers have had to wait weeks for some new Blu-ray and HD DVD releases.

NetFlix says it hopes the high-def disc shortage will end shortly.


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Time Warner: 53 HD Channels Signed Up  
Time Warner: 53 HD Channels Signed Up
The cable op offers a bold forecast for future high-def launches.
By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (February 7, 2008) -- If you're a Time Warner Cable subscriber, you can expect more High-Definition in the near future. Lots more.

That's according to Time Warner's top executives who commented yesterday on the company's HD plans during an investors call with Wall Street analysts.

COO Landel Hobbs told the analysts that the cable service now has carriage agreements with 53 high-def channels -- and deals with an additional 20 channels "pending."

Hobbs said some Time Warner systems, such as Albany and San Antonio, are now offering more than 40 HD channels. But more HD channels are expected to be added throughout the company's footprint.

The cable operator is rolling out a new technology called Switched Digital Video (SDV) that will enable it to expand its high-def capacity.

"Switching works and it will allow us to launch relative HD content as it comes available and as we conclude deals with our programmers," Hobbs said, adding that SDV will be installed in every division that "needs it" by year's end.

Hobbs did not specify which high-def channels will be added in the future. But he said the cable operator is prepared to do battle with other providers, such as DIRECTV, which have recently increased their HD lineups.

"HD has become a key component for some of our competitors marketing but we are not prepared to give ground in the HD battle," he said. "We plan to deliver all of the best HD programming choices -- the ones our customers actually want, not some arbitrary number of channels without regard for quality or whether they actually exist for that matter."

The company also revealed that it will offer up to 200 high-def movies via On Demand by year's end; it now has 50 HD movies through On Demand.


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Swanni's HDTV Presidential Forecast! 
Swanni's HDTV Presidential Forecast!
Could the ultra-clear high-def cameras change the election?
By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (February 6, 2008) -- In 1960, Democratic Sen. John F. Kennedy defeated Vice President Richard Nixon in part because the latter failed to shave in the first presidential debate. Nixon's 5 o'clock shadow made him look unfriendly, if not downright sinister.

Can you imagine if the debate had aired in crystal-clear High-Definition TV? In fact, one could argue that Nixon would have never even been nominated for high office if the voters had first seen him in high-def.

Well, this year's debates are being broadcast in high-def by CNN -- and how the candidates look could be having an impact on the race.

High-Definition TV's picture is so precise that the facial imperfections and aging signs of TV personalities -- and presidential hopefuls -- are now visible to the naked eye.

So, which candidates benefit from the high-def cameras and which ones suffer?

I have assessed each party's top contenders on how they look in high-def -- and I've given them a 'Swanni HDTV Rating' with four 'smiley faces' as the best possible score.


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HD DVD: 5 Ways It Can Survive  
HD DVD: 5 Ways It Can Survive
The high-def format will have to take some risks.
By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (February 6, 2008) -- Is HD DVD dead?

Listen to the pundits (including yours truly) and you would think that Blu-ray had already won the high-def disc format war. Some publications (again, including this one, have predicted that the war will officially be over by year's end.

It's easy to make such declarations. Five major studios are now supporting Blu-ray, compared to two for HD DVD. And new sales figures show that Blu-ray player and disc sales are easily outpacing HD DVD.

While it's difficult now to see how HD DVD can compete in the long run, things do change. Just ask this year's candidates for president.

So, here are five ways that HD DVD can survive in the high-def format war in 2008 -- and beyond.

1. Get the Endorsement of a Major Studio
Warner Bros.' decision last month to endorse Blu-ray exclusively was a major blow to HD DVD. However, if Toshiba, the biggest supporter of HD DVD, could persuade one of the Blu-ray studios to switch sides, it would change the dynamic of the contest.
Odds: 20-1.
Worried about declining DVD sales, the studios are anxious to end this war and, therefore, are unlikely to do anything now that might prolong it.

2. Keep Paramount and Universal On Board
Paramount and Universal are the only two major studios now that are backing HD DVD exclusively -- but there are rumors that they will switch to Blu-ray in the coming weeks. If that happens, the game is over. It's critical that HD DVD keep the studios in place.
Odds: 10-1.
Both Paramount and Universal can read the sales figures as well as anyone. It will be hard for them to continue to ignore the growing Blu-ray audience.

3. Drop the HD DVD Player Price to $49
Toshiba recently lowered the price of the entry-level HD DVD player to $149, but if it really wants to generate sales quickly, it could drop the price to $49. That would make the HD DVD player roughly the price of a cheap standard-def DVD player, which could entice the average buyer.
Odds: 8-1.
Toshiba is already taking a beating on current HD DVD players, offering prices below what it takes to manufacture and distribute them. It would have to invest even more to drop the price to under $100.

4. Get CE Companies to Drop the Price of Dual-Format Players
If Toshiba could persuade LG and Samsung to offer their dual-format players (play both Blu-ray and HD DVD) for under $300, it might trigger new interest among consumers. The dual-format prices now start around $799.
Odds: 25-1.
That would be a big, big price drop. Probably too costly for the companies involved.

5. Get Sony to Support Dual-Format Players
Sony is the leading supporter of the Blu-ray format. If Toshiba could persuade Sony to support the dual-format player -- in return for Sony getting a significant share of future HD DVD profits -- it would allow both formats to exist indefinitely. Rather than manufacture single-format players, CE companies would start working on dual-format players. Under that scenario, the studios could the start releasing titles in both formats because both sides would support a dual-format approach.
Odds: 10-1.
The studios know that the dual-format idea would still confuse many consumers, which would slow acceptance of the new high-def disc. While the Sony-Toshiba deal would bring peace, it might do so at the expense of future growth.

So, bottom line: HD DVD isn't dead, but the shovels are out.


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Verizon: We Have No HDTV Boxes 
Verizon: We Have No More HDTV Boxes
The telco says they will have to backorder them.
By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (February 5, 2008) -- Verizon's FiOS TV service is telling new customers that it doesn't have any High-Definition set-tops in stock.

That's according to an article by Multichannel News.

The telco, which recently passed the one million subscriber mark, has told customers that it may be a few weeks before it can install a high-def box.

Until then, Multichannel News writes, the company is offering new customers a standard-def DVR for no additional monthly fee.

Verizon tells the publication that it has backordered some HD and HD DVR set-tops to try to catch up with demand.

"We recently hit our one-millionth customer milestone and the momentum is continuing to build,” a spokeswoman said.


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DIRECTV: Up to 40 HD Baseball Games Weekly 
DIRECTV: Up to 40 HD Baseball Games Weekly
The satcaster unveils its Major League Baseball pay package.
By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (February 5, 2008) -- DIRECTV says it will air up to 40 Major League Baseball games a week in High-Definition as part of its MLB Extra Innings package.

The satcaster this week announced at its web site that its MLB package will be available for $179 until April 6. (After that, the plan will be $TK.)

The basic plan will include up to 80 'out-of-market' games each week in standard-def, although local blackout restrictions will still apply.

The high-def games will require a subscription to DIRECTV's Super Fan' feature, which will cost an extra $50. So to get all 80 standard-def and the 40 HD games each week, the total cost now is $229.

DIRECTV last year offered up to 10 high-def games a week as part of the MLB package.

The Super Fan feature will also include the Game Mix Channel, which enables viewers to see eight games on screen at the same time, and the Strike Zone Channel, which offers live updates on individual games.

DIRECTV says the Super Fan feature can not be ordered without a subscription to the basic Extra Innings plan.


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DIRECTV Loses a Customer  
DIRECTV Loses a HDTV Customer
Comcast makes an offer your author can't refuse.
By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (February 4, 2008) -- My father is 86 years old and still bursting with energy. But at that age, you need help, which is why a year ago I bought a house a few miles from his home in Southern Maryland.

Every morning, I come by to see if he's okay or needs anything in particular. Which is why I was distressed to hear yesterday that his DIRECTV HD DVR was "acting up" -- again.

This is his third HD DVR from DIRECTV in less than two years. In the past, the set-top failed to record shows or deleted them after they were recorded. (DIRECTV sent replacements; more about that later.) On Sunday, the current one was displaying the dreaded "Searching for Satellite" message almost every time it was tuned to a high-def channel.

He said the message had been popping up for the last several days.

"Why is it doing that?" he asked.

My father had previously complained that recordings on the current HD DVR sometimes failed to play -- and he was right. I witnessed it four times myself.


Swanni's Dad: A new subscriber to Comcast.

So, enough was enough. Sensing my father's frustration, I immediately called DIRECTV, intending to cancel his service once and for all. But I also wanted to ask DIRECTV why his HD DVR was so buggy. After a few tests, the DIRECTV Customer Service Rep (CSR) determined that it was indeed the set-top -- and not the dish.

"There's nothing wrong with the signal," she said.

She said DIRECTV could send another HD DVR -- yes, a fourth one -- to my Dad. But I told her that I wanted to cancel the service because this had been such a frustrating experience for my father -- and myself.

After consulting my father's records, however, she said he still was in the middle of his "two-year commitment" with DIRECTV.

Calling on his behalf, I agreed to the commitment in 2006 because DIRECTV said it would let him use an HD DVR without paying an up-front cost, which came to around $300.

Yes, the very HD DVR service that has required two set-top replacements.

(Note: The two-year commitment was established at the time the HD DVR account was activated; I had to re-activate the account at that time because I shifted it from my name to his. The previous two HD DVRs used at my Dad's house were in my name.)

The CSR said it would cost $150 to break the commitment now and cancel the service.

I told the CSR that it seemed unfair to hold him to the commitment, considering that it was agreed to because of the HD DVR, which needed to be replaced. But she remained firm.

So, I hung up (politely, of course) and called Comcast who said they could offer my father a special deal if he would drop DIRECTV.

The deal: My father would get HBO and Starz for free for one year; all HDTV channels (except for the premium channels he didn't subscribe to); and every Comcast channel from 1 to 300, which is a lot of channels.

The price: $46 a month for the first year -- with no commitments.

I quickly calculated that over a year -- based on my father's DIRECTV programming package -- he would save $210 even if he paid the $150 fee to DIRECTV.

I told Comcast to come ASAP -- and then called DIRECTV and told them that my father was pulling the plug.

I am sure that you could easily find a similar story in which Comcast looks bad and DIRECTV looks good. And I don't even blame DIRECTV for not budging on the two-year commitment. Well, not too much, that is. My father wanted to end the service because he was dissatisfied with it -- and for good reason.

But the moral of this story is that the intense competition between cable and satellite (and the telcos) should prompt every consumer to look for the best deal possible.

Whether it's DIRECTV or cable or Verizon, the TV providers are desperate to take customers away from their rivals. They will make deals.

And, perhaps, you might think twice about agreeing to two-year commitments that are enforced without consideration to the situation.


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Did You Miss the HD DVD 'Super Bowl' Ad? 
Did You Miss the HD DVD 'Super Bowl' Ad?
If so, you were not alone.
By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (February 4, 2008) -- Toshiba's much-anticipated HD DVD Super Bowl commercial apparently did not air last night in several markets.

At Internet message boards -- and in e-mails sent to TVPredictions.com -- viewers complained last night and today that they did not see the ad. However, a few people did say the commercial ran as planned shortly after the first half.

The spot, which highlighted Toshiba's new lower-priced HD DVD players, was regarded by some as the high-def format's last gasp in its battle against rival Blu-ray. Toshiba reportedly spent $2.7 million to secure the commercial time.

However, with the ad apparently appearing in select markets, it's possible that Toshiba opted to buy a targeted, regional ad instead of a national spot.

David Cohen, a spokesman for the Brodeur public relations agency, which handles the HD DVD account for Toshiba, told TVPredictions.com this morning that he was not certain what happened to the commercial.

Cohen added that he had received a few calls today asking why the commercial did not air in certain areas. The spokesman said he would attempt to get more details and report back to TVPredictions.com

TVPredictions.com will update this article when more facts are available.


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Cablevision Offers HD VOD With DVD 
Cablevision Offers HD VOD With DVD
The feature could upset video retailers.
By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (February 4, 2008) -- Cablevision is allowing subscribers to watch some On Demand films in High-Definition the same day they are released on DVD.

That is, if they also purchase the movie on a standard-definition DVD.

The new feature is a joint project from Cablevision and Popcorn Home Entertainment. Offering films from Universal and Warner Bros., the companies are targeting viewers frustrated with waiting for a new DVD to be released on cable's Pay Per View services.

Normally, a new DVD release takes between 30 and 45 days before it's added to cable and satellite's On Demand and PPV lineups.

The release "window" is designed to give video retailers an edge in renting and selling new releases; they've been given that advantage because they generate more revenue than home PPV services.

But the studios are anxious to see if On Demand -- and other at-home film services -- can begin to generate more substantial revenue. (Comcast has been testing a similar 'same day' service with Warner Bros.)

Cablevision will offer such films as American Gangster and Elizabeth, The Golden Age on the same day they are released on DVD. Subscribers can watch the movie then if they purchase the disc, using a credit card at the cable operator's web site.

New releases will cost $19.95 (not including shipping). Older titles will also be available between $9.95 and $15.95.

The DVD will be a standard-definition disc, but some On Demand films will be available in high-def. The difference in picture quality could be a negative for HDTV enthusiasts who would rather opt to buy a Blu-ray or HD DVD of the film.


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Some Blu-ray Players Can't Play ITV Features 
Some Blu-ray Players Can't Play ITV Features
Earlier models have no upgrade capability.
By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (February 3, 2008) -- Several Blu-ray players can not display Interactive TV features that will be added to new Blu-ray movie releases.

That's according to an article by Video Business.

The publication notes that studios are planning to add such features as online games and blogs to releases such as Saw IV and War. The features can be accessed via the Internet connection on the Blu-ray player.

However, the features can only play on 'Profile 2.0' Blu-ray players, largely later models released late last year. The earlier models have no update capability

Some models also can not display a Picture-in-Picture feature on new Blu-ray releases, which allows you to watch a commentary along side the movie.

Blu-ray supporters have said the new interactive features will match those of rival HD DVD which has offered ITV on disc and players for months.

Video Business says the following Blu-ray players are 'Profile 1.0' players, meaning they can not play PIP or web-enabled interactive features:

Sony BDP-S300
Sharp BD-HP20U
Samsung BDP-1400
Pioneer BDP-95FD
Philips BDP9000

The following Blu-ray players can play PIP, but not web-enabled interactive features:

LG BH200
Panasonic DMP BD300
Philips BDP7200
Samsung BD-UP5000
Samsung BD-P1500
Samsung BD-UP5500
Sharp BD-HP50U


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Could a Recession Hurt HDTV Sales? 
Could a Recession Hurt HDTV Sales?
The Super Bowl sales report could tell the tale.
By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (February 1, 2008) -- Some economists are predicting the United States will fall into a recession this year.

If so, will the economic slowdown mean falling sales of High-Definition TVs?

The sales report for this year's Super Bowl could provide the answer.

The Consumer Electronics Association says approximately 2.5 million high-def sets were sold specifically for last year's game. The trade group is estimating that 2.4 million 'Super Bowl' sets will be sold prior to this year's game, which will be played Sunday.

The Super Bowl, which is watched by an estimated one billion people worldwide, has become an annual excuse to buy a new TV. The game, which will be held this year on Feb. 3, has become a focal point for neighborhood parties and other gatherings.

However, some analysts are not so sure that high-def will get the usual Super Bowl bounce this year. Concerned about layoffs and other woes caused by the economic slowdown, consumers may hesitate to shell out thousands of dollars for a new TV.

Forrester Research tells Wired News that many high-def shoppers bought their sets during the 2007 holidays.

"What is happening more and more is that people are buying their Super Bowl TVs back in December because the prices are so good around the holidays," said Forrester Research analyst James McQuivey, "so the Super Bowl spike is probably decreasing in significance."

McQuivey also opines that many high-def sets purchased prior to Sunday's game will be by current HD owners looking to upgrade.

"I will say that of the activity you'll see this week, more and more of it will be people ... upgrading to a 50-inch from the now small-seeming 40-inch in the living room," McQuivey told Wired.

McQuivey says his company's data shows that Super Bowl TV buying will be about 20 percent of the holiday period.

Whether Super Bowl sales decline or not, other analysts have said the electronics category may be one that's immune to a recession.


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TiVo's Stock Soaring on Echo Victory 
TiVo's Stock Soaring On Echo Victory
The DVR service wins its patent infringement case against EchoStar.
By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (January 31, 2008) -- TiVo's stock has jumped as much as 30 percent today following an appeal court ruling upholding its DVR patent judgment against EchoStar.

TiVo sued EchoStar in 2004, saying the satcaster violated its 'Time Warp' patent for a DVR software feature.

The Time Warp feature allows "the user to store selected television broadcast programs while the user is simultaneously watching or reviewing another program," according to TiVo's patent which was filed for almost 10 years ago.

A Texas jury decided in favor of TiVo in April 2006, awarding the company $73.9 million in damages. However, the case has been bogged down in appeals since then.

It appears that EchoStar's legal options have now been exhausted. If so, the satcaster would either have to pay TiVo the $73 million in damages or work out a licensing agreement with the company.

Today's decision also could strength TiVo's hand in negotiating licensing deals with other TV providers.

TiVo earlier today also announced a research agreement with CBS. The company said CBS would use its company's DVR data "to better keep audience attention during commercial breaks, and develop new and improved promotional strategies for time-shifted viewers to build audiences for its programs."

NBC signed a similar research deal with TiVo last November.

TiVo offers DVR services for both high-def and standard-def programming.


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NAB's Digital TV Study 'Suspect' 
News & Commentary
NAB's Digital TV Study 'Suspect'
The group representing local stations says local PSAs have been a hit.
By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (January 30, 2008) -- Local TV stations last year began airing commercials alerting viewers of next year's Digital TV transition.

Have the commercials been successful?

Well, the National Association of Broadcasters thinks so. The trade group for the local stations has released a study saying that consumer awareness of the digital transition has doubled in one year.

According to an article by TWICE Magazine, the NAB reports that 79 percent of consumers say they have “seen, read or heard something about the Feb. 17, 2009, transition to digital television."

A similar NAB survey conducted in January 2007 found that only 38 percent of people expressed awareness of the transition.

On February 17, 2009, all local broadcasters must switch their analog signals to digital which means viewers will need a Digital TV, a digital converter box or a pay TV subscription to watch television.

The federal government this month began accepting applications for $40 coupons for people to buy Digital TV converter boxes, which are expected to cost from $40-70.

The NAB study said the new study includes viewers who rely on off-air TV antennas to get their signals, the group that's most likely to need the converter boxes. In fact, the NAB says 83 percent of that group say they've heard of the transition.

“This is a big step toward our goal of reaching every American with information about the DTV transition,” said NAB CEO David Rehr. “The first phase of our consumer education campaign has been highly successful, and our next phase will focus on helping consumers learn more about the steps they need to take to receive a digital signal before Feb. 17, 2009.”

The local stations began airing the Public Service Announcements on the Digital TV transition in response to lawmakers who said they weren't doing enough to educate their viewers.


Commentary:
Sorry, I'm not buying this study.

The NAB does not say if consumers know what they need to do to prepare for the transition -- only that they've "seen, read or heard" something about it.

That's meaningless. Ask any group of people if they've "seen, read or heard" about almost anything and they will answer yes. What good is that? The real question is whether they are taking steps to be ready for the transition, which is highly doubtful.

(Plus, studies by more objective sources have shown that consumer awareness of the Digital TV transition may be 50 percent of what the NAB says it is.)

Sorry again, but I am also suspicious that the NAB suddenly produces a study saying that their local stations' PSA announcements have been effective.

In the research industry, you can get a study to say almost anything you want by simply phrasing the questions the right way. Or, by not asking certain questions that might produce an unwanted response.

I suspect that's what happened here.

The NAB wanted to show Congress and the Federal Communications Commission that it was doing its job to educate consumers on the transition.

So, it produced a study saying it had.

Big deal.


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DIRECTV's New HD Satellite to Launch In March 
DIRECTV's New HD Satellite to Launch In March
The satellite will expand the satcaster's capacity to 150 HD channels.
By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (January 30, 2008) -- DIRECTV 11, the satcaster's new satellite for High-Definition, is scheduled for launch in March.

The Boeing Company yesterday announced the delivery of the satellite to the Sea Launch Home Port in Long Beach, California.

The satellite is now scheduled for launch on a Sea Launch Zenit-3SL rocket in March.

Once operational, DIRECTV says the new satellite will expand its capacity to 150 HD national channels and 1,500 local high-def channels. DIRECTV now offers about 90 national HD channels and local HD channels in more than 70 markets.

The satcaster has not said when the satellite is expected to be ready, but it usually takes roughly 90 days following launch.

“Advanced satellites like DIRECTV 11 exemplify the superior technology that DIRECTV employs to deliver an unparalleled TV experience for its more than 16.6 million customers,” said Romulo Pontual, DIRECTV’s chief technology officer. “We are looking forward to the launch that will further strengthen DIRECTV’s position as the leader in HD.”

DIRECTV last year launched the first of three new satellites for high-def and other services, all of which will be built by Boeing.


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Report: HD DVD Sales Gain; Still Trail Blu-ray 
Report: HD DVD Sales Gain; Still Trail Blu-ray
Toshiba recently slashed player prices.
By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (January 29, 2008) -- For the week ending January 19, Blu-ray players outsold rival HD DVD even after the latter cut prices under $200.

That's according to new figures from the NPD Group, as reported by the web site, Digital Bits.

Blu-ray and HD DVD are rival formats competing for the new high-def disc audience.

According to the report, there were 16,496 standalone Blu-ray players sold during the week ending January 19, compared to 8,639 for HD DVD. (The numbers do not include sales of the Play Station 3, which has a Blu-ray player inside, or the HD DVD add-on for the XBox 360.)

If accurate, Blu-ray players captured 65 percent of the market for the week, compared to roughly 35 percent for HD DVD's.

While the margin is still impressive, it's a drop from the previous week when Blu-ray players netted 93 percent of overall standalone player sales. The reduction in HD DVD player prices was the likely reason for the change.

On January 14, Toshiba cut the suggested retail price of its entry-level HD-A3 player to $149.99; its HD-A30 player, which has 1080p output, to $199; and its HD-A35 model to $299. The lowest suggested retail price for a Blu-ray player is $399.

Standalone HD DVD players enjoyed a small lead over standalone Blu-ray players in 2007. However, Warner Bros. this month endorsed Blu-ray exclusively in the format war, giving the Sony-backed format a 5-2 'major studio' advantage over HD DVD. Both HD DVD player and disc sales have declined since the Warner decision.


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Will Toshiba's Profit Drop Hurt HD DVD? 
Will Toshiba's Profit Drop Hurt HD DVD?
The company says profits fell 25 percent.
By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (January 29, 2008) -- Toshiba today said its operating profit fell 25 percent in the third quarter due largely to falling prices of flash memory chips.

However, the decline could put more pressure on the company to abandon its stake in the sagging HD DVD high-def disc format.

HD DVD is competing with the Sony-backed Blu-ray format for the new high-def disc audience. However, since Warner Bros. endorsed Blu-ray this month, HD DVD player and disc sales have badly trailed its rival.

There are now only two major studios -- Universal and Paramount -- releasing films in the HD DVD format, compared to five for Blu-ray.

Toshiba's stock has fallen 11.5 percent since the Warner endorsement, according to Reuters.

The stock drop -- combined with overall company losses -- could force Toshiba's top executives to revisit its investment in HD DVD.

The company this month announced a sharp cut in HD DVD player prices and said it will air a HD DVD commercial during this Sunday's Super Bowl.
See:
Toshiba to Run HD DVD Ad During Super Bowl

But if those efforts do not produce immediate results, Toshiba will have to answer to shareholders already wondering about the company's shrinking bottom line.


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Ask Swanni: January 28, 2008 
Ask Swanni: Why Doesn't HD DVD Give Up?
The high-def guru takes your questions.
By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (January 28, 2008) -- I get scores of e-mails every week from readers asking everything from whether they should buy a new HDTV to when will their TV provider add new high-def channels.

So, from time to time, I will publish my responses here in this column called, "Ask Swanni!" If you would like to submit a question for a future column, send it to: swann@tvpredictions.com

Now, here's Ask Swanni!

http://www.tvpredictions.com/askswanni012808.htm


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Toshiba to Run HD DVD Ad During Super Bowl  
Toshiba to Run HD DVD Ad During Super Bowl
The 30-second spot could cost nearly $3 million.
By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (January 27, 2008) -- Toshiba has scheduled a 30-second commercial for HD DVD during the Feb. 3 Super Bowl.

That's according to an article in this week's Home Media Magazine.

The commercial will highlight Toshiba's HD-A3, HD-A30 and HD-A35 players, all of which received sharp price cuts in the last week. (The HD-A3 HD DVD player is now available for $127 at Amazon.com.)

Toshiba is the leading backer of HD DVD in the high-def disc format war against Blu-ray.

The company is apparently hoping the Super Bowl commercial will spark new interest in HD DVD, which has seen both player and disc sales sag this month after Warner Bros. announced it was endorsing Blu-ray.

(With Warner, Blu-ray has five major studios supporting it exclusively while only two back HD DVD.)

However, Toshiba won't acknowledge that the commercial, which will likely cost around $2.7 million, is a make-or-break spot for the format.

"It has always been our strategy to reach HDTV owners, using advertising on football is just one vehicle," Toshiba's Jodi Sally told Home Media Magazine. "We had advertised on (NBC's) Sunday Night Football all season long."

Home Media reports that the Blu-ray Disc Association declined to run a Super Bowl ad because it could not produce an appropriate spot in time.

"I certain admire (Toshiba's) chutzpah," said Andy Parsons, a spokesman for the Blu-ray group. "Running a Super Bowl ad is not likely to convince consumers that HD DVD will win the format war."


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NetFlix Admits High-Def Disc Shortage 
NetFlix Admits High-Def Disc Shortage
But the by-mail rental service says the problem will be fixed soon.
By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (January 24, 2008) -- Have you had problems lately renting Blu-ray and HD DVD movies from NetFlix?

Well, you're not alone.

The popular by-mail DVD rental service acknowledges that it's experiencing a "slowdown" in distributing new Blu-ray and HD DVD releases to its customers.

Consequently, subscribers trying to rent recent Blu-ray and HD DVD releases such as 3:10 to Yuma and The Bourne Ultimatum are getting messages at NetFlix's web site saying it will be a "very long wait" before they are mailed out.

"The studios are not replicating (discs) as fast and that's causing the slowdown," Steve Swasey, a NetFlix spokesman, told TVPredictions.com today.

However, Swasey said he expects the studios to pick up the pace shortly.

"This is short term. It should be fixed in the next couple of weeks," he said.


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NetFlix: Blu-ray Has the Advantage 
NetFlix: Blu-ray Has the Advantage
But the company says the format war is not over.
By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (January 24, 2008) -- NetFlix CEO Reed Hastings says it appears that Blu-ray has the advantage in the high-def disc format war against HD DVD.

In an investors call yesterday following release of its fourth quarter report, Hastings added that consumer adoption of Blu-ray will "accelerate" if the format can maintain that advantage.

"The milestones to watch for are Blu-ray player prices falling below $200, and Universal and Paramount also announcing their support for Blu-ray," he said. "If these two milestones are reached, the consumer adoption of Blu-ray will take off. This would be a positive for the studios and a positive for Netflix, as it would fuel another decade of robust disc-based entertainment. "

The by-mail DVD rental service now offers both Blu-ray and HD DVDs, but Hastings clearly would prefer a single format solution. Following Warner Bros.' endorsement of Blu-ray earlier this month, analysts have speculated that Blu-ray will ultimately win the battle.

(Five major studios now exclusively release their films on Blu-ray while only two -- Universal and Paramount -- release their movies on HD DVD.)

But Hastings cautioned that the format war is not over yet.

"Definitely the winds are shifting to Blu-ray but nothing done yet," he said.

The executive added that Blu-ray rentals at NetFlix have seen "sharp growth" since the Warner endorsement.

Still, high-def disc rentals are still a small portion of NetFlix's overal business, he said.

"Maybe a percent of subs yes, but meaningful percentage of shipments, not particularly because there is not that much content released on it yet. But in terms of subs it’s definitely growing. I would say we have a big crew of Internet connected early adopter, savvy subscribers. So they are going to be all relatively early," Hastings told the investors group.


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Study: Warner Deal Boosts Blu-ray Sales 
Study: Warner Deal Boosts Blu-ray Sales
HD DVD's market share drops dramatically.
By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (January 23, 2008) -- Sales of Blu-ray players far outpaced rival HD DVD in the week after Warner Bros. announced it was endorsing Blu-ray in the high-def disc format war.

According to NPD Group, 21,770 Blu-ray players were sold during the week ending January 12, compared to just 1,758 HD DVD players. (The numbers were first reported by the web site, Digital Bits.)

Warner announced on January 4 that it would support Blu-ray exclusively, giving the format a 5-2 'major studio' advantage over HD DVD.

In the week prior to the Warner announcement, Blu-ray sold 15,257 units compared to 14,558 for HD DVD.

The sales data is more evidence that Warner's decision to support Blu-ray could ultimately end the format war. Until now, standalone HD DVD players outsold standalone Blu-ray players, albeit by a small margin. (This does not include sales of the PlayStation 3, which has a Blu-ray player inside. When the PS3 is included, Blu-ray has a commanding lead.)

Toshiba, the leading HD DVD backer, last week announced that it was dramatically dropping prices on HD DVD players, with some now under $200. The next week of data should indicate whether Toshiba's decision will slow Blu-ray's new sales dominance.

An earlier study showed that Blu-ray captured 85 percent of the high-def disc market in the week after the Warner decision.



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