Washington, D.C. (February 6, 2008) -- Is HD DVD dead?

Listen to the pundits (including yours truly) and you would think that Blu-ray had already won the high-def disc format war. Some publications (again, including this one) have predicted that the war will officially be over by year's end.

It's easy to make such declarations. Five major studios are now supporting Blu-ray, compared to two for HD DVD. And new sales figures show that Blu-ray player and disc sales are easily outpacing HD DVD.


While it's difficult now to see how HD DVD can compete in the long run, things do change. Just ask this year's candidates for president.

So, here are five ways that HD DVD can survive in the high-def format war in 2008 -- and beyond.

1. Get the Endorsement of a Major Studio
Warner Bros.' decision last month to endorse Blu-ray exclusively was a major blow to HD DVD. However, if Toshiba, the biggest supporter of HD DVD, could persuade one of the Blu-ray studios to switch sides, it would change the dynamic of the contest.
Odds: 20-1.
Worried about declining DVD sales, the studios are anxious to end this war and, therefore, are unlikely to do anything now that might prolong it.

2. Keep Paramount and Universal On Board
Paramount and Universal are the only two major studios now that are backing HD DVD exclusively -- but there are rumors that they will switch to Blu-ray in the coming weeks. If that happens, the game is over. It's critical that HD DVD keep the studios in place.
Odds: 10-1.
Both Paramount and Universal can read the sales figures as well as anyone. It will be hard for them to continue to ignore the growing Blu-ray audience.

3. Drop the HD DVD Player Price to $49
Toshiba recently lowered the price of the entry-level HD DVD player to $149, but if it really wants to generate sales quickly, it could drop the price to $49. That would make the HD DVD player roughly the price of a cheap standard-def DVD player, which could entice the average buyer.
Odds: 8-1.
Toshiba is already taking a beating on current HD DVD players, offering prices below what it takes to manufacture and distribute them. It would have to invest even more to drop the price to under $100.

4. Get CE Companies to Drop the Price of Dual-Format Players
If Toshiba could persuade LG and Samsung to offer their dual-format players (they play both Blu-ray and HD DVD) for under $300, it might trigger new interest among consumers. The dual-format prices now start around $799.
Odds: 25-1.
That would be a big, big price drop. Probably too costly for the companies involved.

5. Get Sony to Support Dual-Format Players
Sony is the leading supporter of the Blu-ray format. If Toshiba could persuade Sony to support the dual-format player -- in return for Sony getting a significant share of future HD DVD profits -- it would allow both formats to exist indefinitely. Rather than manufacture single-format players, CE companies would start working on dual-format players. Under that scenario, the studios could then start releasing titles in both formats because both sides would support a dual-format approach.
Odds: 10-1.
The studios know that the dual-format idea would still confuse many consumers, which would slow acceptance of the new high-def disc. While the Sony-Toshiba deal would bring peace, it might do so at the expense of future growth.

So, bottom line: HD DVD isn't dead, but the shovels are out.

Comment on this article!

___________________________________________

____________________________________________

Click TVPredictions.com to see today's Swanni Sez.

© TVPredictions.com
____________________________________________

Swanni (Phillip Swann) is president and publisher of TVPredictions.com. He has been quoted in dozens of publications and broadcast outlets, including CNN, Fox News, Inside Edition, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune, The Financial Times, The Associated Press and The Hollywood Reporter. He can be reached at swann@tvpredictions.com or at 703-505-3064.

Click TVPredictions.com to read more news and features on TV technology.