HDTV: 5 Big Questions For 2007

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HDTV: 5 Big Questions For 2007
And if they're answered, high-def sales will boom.
By Phillip Swann

Washington, D.C. (December 4, 2006) -- I have just returned from attending last week's HD World Conference and Exposition in New York. After talking to dozens of people on the show floor, five questions about high-def kept coming up in conversation.

The industry officials told me that if these five issues are resolved in 2007 that HDTV sales and acceptance would jump dramatically.

So what are the five big questions facing the high-def industry?

1. Will HDTV Prices Continue to Fall?
High-def sets are now in nearly 30 million U.S. homes, but many consumers are still waiting for big-screen, flat-panel prices to drop under the $1,000 mark. Will that happen in the first half of 2007? If it does, it could trigger an explosion in sales.

2. Will More Networks Launch HDTV Channels?
David Hill, president of DIRECTV Entertainment, urged more cable networks to launch high-def channels in his keynote speech to the convention. However, popular networks such as TBS, E!, USA Network and Sci-Fi Channel are still on the high-def sidelines. If they come to play in 2007, it would be a big boost for the industry.

3. Will Toshiba and Sony Settle the HDTV DVD War?
Many new high-def owners would love to buy a new HDTV DVD player. But the format war between Sony (Blu-ray) and Toshiba (HD-DVD) is keeping people at home. If the industry could settle this war in 2007 -- either via the marketplace or a negotiation -- it would encourage more people to buy high-def sets as well as high-def DVD players.

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4. Will Cable & Satellite Providers Offer More HD Channels?
EchoStar is arguably now the HD leader with a lineup of 30 national high-def channels. (Although EchoStar does not offer local HD channels in most markets.) But most TV providers offer far fewer -- and even 30 doesn't seem like that much to the average high-def owner. For high-def sales to soar, the major cable and satellite operators must expand their lineups to 40 or 50 channels by the end of 2007.

5. Will More HDTV Owners Get HD Tuners?
Although approximately 30 million U.S. homes have HDTVs, less than 15 million actually have the high-def tuners which are necessary to display HD signals. (And the number could be closer to 10 million.) Can the cable and satellite operators persuade more HD owners to sign up for high-def service (which includes HD tuners) in 2007? If so, it would expand the measurable HDTV audience, which would trigger a variety of positive developments, including more commercials in high-def and more launches of high-def networis.

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Phillip Swann is president and publisher of TVPredictions.com. He has been quoted in dozens of publications and broadcast outlets, including CNN, Fox News, Inside Edition, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune, The Financial Times, The Associated Press and The Hollywood Reporter. He can be reached at swann@tvpredictions.com or at 703-505-3064.

Click TVPredictions.com to read more news and features on TV technology.

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