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News
Swanni Reveals 10 HDTV Predictions at Iowa Digital TV Conference
The president of TVPredictions.com says DIRECTV will emerge as the HDTV leader next year and high-def sales will spike in early 2006.
Special to TVPredictions.com
Washington D.C. (October 5, 2005) -- Phillip Swann, president of TVPredictions.com, addressed this week's Iowa PBS Digital TV Symposium in Des Moines, Iowa. And the noted TV forecaster made 10 predictions for High-Definition TV in 2006.
Among Swanni's predictions: DIRECTV will become the leading provider of HDTV channels in 2006; and high-def sales will rise significantly in the first two months of next year.
"While HDTV has struggled to generate a mass audience, next year should be a breakthrough year for high-def sales," Swann told attendees at the conference, which was held at the Fort Des Moines Hotel. "The industry still needs to do a better job of communicating to consumers why they should buy a HDTV, but we're getting closer to a tipping point for the technology."
Swann has been a featured speaker at the annual Iowa conference for five consecutive years. The event attracts TV industry officials from across the country.
Below are Swanni's 10 HDTV Predictions for 2006 -- and his comments on each forecast.
1. DIRECTV will emerge as the HDTV leader.
"With the satcaster launching several new satellites, it will soon be able to add a significant number of new high-def channels. By the end of 2006, DIRECTV will offer a significantly larger number of HD channels than any other cable or satellite provider."
2. Several more HDTV networks will launch in 2006.
"We already know that MTV, National Geographic and Fox will launch new high-def channels in 2006. But with DIRECTV -- and some cable operators -- expanding their high-def capacities, look for more HD launches, such as CNN and a few other surprises."
3. New HDTV DVD players will be the buzz of the industry.
"High-Def DVD players from Sony and Toshiba are expected early next year. Although prices will be too high to generate serious sales, look for the media to go wild over their introduction."
4. HDTV sales will jump in the first two months of 2006.
"We're looking at a perfect storm for HDTV sales in January and February. First, Congress is expected to pass a new Digital TV deadline towards the end of 2005, which will encourage more consumers to buy digital sets. Second, the Super Bowl will be broadcast in high-def in late January. And, third, the 2006 Winter Olympics will be broadcast in high-def in February. The three events -- all coming together at roughly the same time -- will persuade previously reluctant consumers to go shopping."
5. The Multicasting movement will be slowed in 2006.
"Congress is not likely to force the cable operators to carry multiple digital feeds from local channels in the new Digital TV law. Consequently, some local affiliates will re-think their plans to deliver multiple channels with their digital spectrum."
6. HDTVs in hotel rooms will encourage more people to buy sets for their homes.
"Several hotel chains, including Marriott, are adding high-def sets to certain luxury hotels. When people see that great picture in their rooms, they won't be content until they can see it in their homes as well."
7. The Plasma-LCD-DLP flat-screen TV war will spur more interest in HDTV.
"However, the battle will also confuse consumers. People are unfamiliar with these arcane industry terms, such as LCD and DLP. They might be interested in buying a high-def set, but they're not sure if they're buying the right one. The industry needs to do a better job of making the choice easier for consumers."
8. Plasma TV 'Enhanced-Definition' prices will hit $1,000 by the 2006 holidays, with Plasma HDTVs falling to below $1,500.
"This is what many consumers have been waiting for. It will spark another sales boost at the end of the year."
9. Rear-Projection TV sales will suffer in 2006 and beyond.
"Many people have purchased rear-projection HDTVs because their prices are lower than flat-screen sets. But with flat-screen prices falling, there will be less reason to buy a rear-projection set."
10. The networks will more frequently promote HDTV as a reason to watch a primetime show.
"You're already starting to see this. ABC, for instance, promotes the fact that Monday Night Football airs in high-def. But next year, as more people get high-def sets, you'll see the networks include HDTV in more advertising campaigns for primetime shows."
© TVPredictions.com
Swanni Reveals 10 HDTV Predictions at Iowa Digital TV Conference
The president of TVPredictions.com says DIRECTV will emerge as the HDTV leader next year and high-def sales will spike in early 2006.
Special to TVPredictions.com
Washington D.C. (October 5, 2005) -- Phillip Swann, president of TVPredictions.com, addressed this week's Iowa PBS Digital TV Symposium in Des Moines, Iowa. And the noted TV forecaster made 10 predictions for High-Definition TV in 2006.
Among Swanni's predictions: DIRECTV will become the leading provider of HDTV channels in 2006; and high-def sales will rise significantly in the first two months of next year.
"While HDTV has struggled to generate a mass audience, next year should be a breakthrough year for high-def sales," Swann told attendees at the conference, which was held at the Fort Des Moines Hotel. "The industry still needs to do a better job of communicating to consumers why they should buy a HDTV, but we're getting closer to a tipping point for the technology."
Swann has been a featured speaker at the annual Iowa conference for five consecutive years. The event attracts TV industry officials from across the country.
Below are Swanni's 10 HDTV Predictions for 2006 -- and his comments on each forecast.
1. DIRECTV will emerge as the HDTV leader.
"With the satcaster launching several new satellites, it will soon be able to add a significant number of new high-def channels. By the end of 2006, DIRECTV will offer a significantly larger number of HD channels than any other cable or satellite provider."
2. Several more HDTV networks will launch in 2006.
"We already know that MTV, National Geographic and Fox will launch new high-def channels in 2006. But with DIRECTV -- and some cable operators -- expanding their high-def capacities, look for more HD launches, such as CNN and a few other surprises."
3. New HDTV DVD players will be the buzz of the industry.
"High-Def DVD players from Sony and Toshiba are expected early next year. Although prices will be too high to generate serious sales, look for the media to go wild over their introduction."
4. HDTV sales will jump in the first two months of 2006.
"We're looking at a perfect storm for HDTV sales in January and February. First, Congress is expected to pass a new Digital TV deadline towards the end of 2005, which will encourage more consumers to buy digital sets. Second, the Super Bowl will be broadcast in high-def in late January. And, third, the 2006 Winter Olympics will be broadcast in high-def in February. The three events -- all coming together at roughly the same time -- will persuade previously reluctant consumers to go shopping."
5. The Multicasting movement will be slowed in 2006.
"Congress is not likely to force the cable operators to carry multiple digital feeds from local channels in the new Digital TV law. Consequently, some local affiliates will re-think their plans to deliver multiple channels with their digital spectrum."
6. HDTVs in hotel rooms will encourage more people to buy sets for their homes.
"Several hotel chains, including Marriott, are adding high-def sets to certain luxury hotels. When people see that great picture in their rooms, they won't be content until they can see it in their homes as well."
7. The Plasma-LCD-DLP flat-screen TV war will spur more interest in HDTV.
"However, the battle will also confuse consumers. People are unfamiliar with these arcane industry terms, such as LCD and DLP. They might be interested in buying a high-def set, but they're not sure if they're buying the right one. The industry needs to do a better job of making the choice easier for consumers."
8. Plasma TV 'Enhanced-Definition' prices will hit $1,000 by the 2006 holidays, with Plasma HDTVs falling to below $1,500.
"This is what many consumers have been waiting for. It will spark another sales boost at the end of the year."
9. Rear-Projection TV sales will suffer in 2006 and beyond.
"Many people have purchased rear-projection HDTVs because their prices are lower than flat-screen sets. But with flat-screen prices falling, there will be less reason to buy a rear-projection set."
10. The networks will more frequently promote HDTV as a reason to watch a primetime show.
"You're already starting to see this. ABC, for instance, promotes the fact that Monday Night Football airs in high-def. But next year, as more people get high-def sets, you'll see the networks include HDTV in more advertising campaigns for primetime shows."
© TVPredictions.com
Phillip Swann is president and publisher of
TVPredictions.com. He has been quoted in dozens of publications
and broadcast outlets, including CNN, Fox News, Inside Edition,
The Chicago Tribune, The Associated Press and The Hollywood
Reporter. He can be reached at
swann@tvpredictions.com
or at 703-505-3064.
And click
TVPredictions.com
to read more news and features on TV
technology.
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