News Analysis
HDTV: 5 Barriers to Bigger Sales
The High-Definition industry could boom soon, but a few major obstacles stand in its way.
By Phillip Swann

Washington, D.C. (September 8, 2006) -- Yesterday, I offered five reasons why High-Definition TV sales might rise dramatically in the coming months.

Today, I present five obstacles still standing in the way of greater high-def sales. 

So, here are...

5 Reasons Why HDTV Sales Will NOT Boom:

1. Price
TV makers say LCD and Plasma prices will fall 20 to 30 percent next year. But most flat-screen sets will still be priced at well over $1,000. And many will cost far more than that. The price tag is still too high for most Americans.

Now, I know that some high-def sets (mostly screen size under 37 inches) are under $1,000. However, the CE industry (retailers and TV makers) tend to promote the more expensive flat-screen sets, creating the perception that HDTVs still cost thousands of dollars. If the industry would spend more time and money advertising affordable HD sets, sales would rise significantly.

2. Not Enough Programming
Cable and satellite operators are adding high-def channels, but not fast enough. The average HDTV owner still has fewer than 20 HD channels to choose from -- and not all of them broadcast 24 hours a day in high-def. Until HD programming lineups get a little more meat, the high-def experience will be less than fully satisfying.
3. Industry Confusion & Chaos
Many consumers are voicing a common lament: When did television get so complicated? With acronyms like LCD, DLP and SED, and other issues such as whether you need a high-def tuner and/or a HDMI cable, the average TV shopper is overwhelmed with confusing choices. Compounding the situation is that most retail salesmen are ill-equipped to explain high-def to potential buyers. The industry is aware of these problems and is taking steps to improve. But much work still needs to be done.

4. The HDTV DVD Disaster
The HDTV DVD format war between Sony (Blu-ray) and Toshiba (HD-DVD) is adding to the perception that HDTV is too complicated. The two formats are not compatible with each other, meaning one disc won't work on the other's player. The high-def DVD industry is in its infancy and will likely work out the kinks. But for now, the battle is just creating negative publicity for HDTV overall.

5. People Still Have Their TVs
Often overlooked in the HDTV industry is a simple fact: Many consumers purchased a non-HD set just a few years ago and they are irked at the idea of having to buy a new one. While they might understand that high-def offers a dramatically better picture, their eyes are fixed on their bottom line. The industry needs a plan to persuade this group to abandon their recently purchased sets and buy a new one.

Click TVPredictions.com to see the rest of today's Swanni Sez.

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Phillip Swann is president and publisher of TVPredictions.com. He has been quoted in dozens of publications and broadcast outlets, including CNN, Fox News, Inside Edition, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune, The Financial Times, The Associated Press and The Hollywood Reporter. He can be reached at swann@tvpredictions.com or at 703-505-3064.

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