1. DIRECTV Will Become the HDTV Leader.
I predicted this would happen in 2006, but DIRECTV  decided to postpone its national high-def expansion until the second quarter of 2007. So, look for DIRECTV to dramatically increase its national high-def lineup in 2007, offering more channels than any other provider. With two new satellites dedicated largely to high-def, the satcaster will have more capacity than anyone.


Will E!'s exposes of Paris Hilton go high-def?

2. Several Basic Cable Channels Will Go HDTV In Mid-Year
With DIRECTV expanding capacity, you will see a flurry of new HDTV channels launching in late spring or early summer. Until now, a new HDTV channel has had to struggle to get a cable or satellite operator to add it. But DIRECTV's two new satellites will change that in a heartbeat; they will have room for all. Likely HD launches include: CNN, E!, TBS, The Sci-Fi Channel and FX.

3. Cable Operators Will Continue to Drop Analog Channels to Make Room for HDTV
To keep pace with DIRECTV, the cable operators will have to drop some channels to make room for more high-def networks. Look for West Coast feeds of premium movie channels and basic cable networks to go first.

5. The XBox 360-Play Station 3 War Will Generate More Interest in HDTV DVDs.
The video game console battle escalated in November of this year when Sony released its new Play Station 3, which has a Blu-ray DVD player inside. And Microsoft introduced a HD-DVD/XBox 360 player attachment for $199. Because the video consoles are enormously popular, they will get more people interested and aware of the new high-def players. However, again, unless Sony and Toshiba reach an agreement on a single format, the interest will not translate into buys.


6. HDTV Prices Will Drop Even More
LCD and Plasma TV flat-screen prices will fall another 30 percent in 2007. You can expect to see 42-inch flat-screen HDTVs for under $1,000 by the 2007 holidays. However, don't expect further major price declines until the spring or early summer. Retailers and TV makers have already dropped prices dramatically for this holiday season; they will wait a bit before slashing prices again.

7. Apple Will Introduce a HDTV Service
Apple is expected early next year to launch a new device designed to make digital downloads easier on a TV. Look for the service to include high-def shows and movies. Although the tech media will slobber over the new device and call it the next big thing, it will fail to generate many buyers.

8. The HDTV 'Picture Quality' Debate Will Heat Up
More high-def owners are becomingly aware that cable and satellite operators sometime squeeze, or compress, the HD picture quality to make room for more channels and services. And those high-def owners are getting angrier about the practice. In 2007, cable and satellite operators will be less likely to do this because they will have more system and satellite space, respectively, to transmit the high-def signals. In addition, they realize that the practice is upsetting customers.

9. 1080p TVs Will Spark More Debate & Confusion
1080i. 720p. And now 1080p. Networks and TV makers have been saying their particular programming format offers the best picture. (For instance, ABC broadcasts in 720p while NBC uses 1080i.) The tech talk has confused consumers and the introduction of 1080p will just further that confusion.

10. Multicasting Will Continue to Struggle
Many local stations are offering additional digital channels with their primary high-def feed. However, Congress (and the FCC) is unlikely to support proposals that would force cable operators to carry the multiple digital feeds, known as multicasting. Consequently, look for fewer stations to offer the multiple digital channels.

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Phillip Swann is president and publisher of TVPredictions.com. He has been quoted in dozens of publications and broadcast outlets, including CNN, Fox News, Inside Edition, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune, The Financial Times, The Associated Press and The Hollywood Reporter. He can be reached at swann@tvpredictions.com or at 703-505-3064.

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