HD DVD: Time's Up

Editorial
HD DVD: Time's Up
The format's ride is over. It's time to get off.
By Swanni

Washington, D.C. (February 13, 2008) -- HD DVD has become the Mike Huckabee of technology.

Like the GOP presidential candidate, the high-def disc format is a plucky challenger that has charmed and entertained many by offering something different.

But also like Mike, HD DVD now faces impossible odds, prompting calls for its retreat from the battleground

I won't comment on whether Huckabee should drop out, but it's definitely time for HD DVD to listen to the chorus and call it a day.

At this point, I can envision no scenario in which HD DVD can emerge victorious over its high-def disc rival Blu-ray.

The latter format now has the backing of five major studios compared to HD DVD's two; NetFlix, Best Buy and Blockbuster have endorsed (or semi-endorsed) Blu-ray; and Blu-ray player and disc sales are far outpacing HD DVD.

Huckabee, an ordained minister, says he majored in miracles, not math. But in the cold world of retail, there are no miracles -- only math. And there's no way for the numbers to add up for HD DVD.

(And there's no way that a major studio or two will now abandon Blu-ray and endorse HD DVD exclusively.)

So, Toshiba, HD DVD's leading supporter, should immediately begin peace talks with Sony, the biggest Blu-ray backer. (If it hasn't done so already).

I believe there's room for a compromise here. In returning for exiting the scene now, Toshiba might be able to get a small slice of future Blu-ray profits, at least by manufacturing its own Blu-ray players.

But if Toshiba waits much longer, the Blu-ray backers will have less reason to make a deal. The sales numbers -- and retail and studio endorsements -- will be so overwhelming that HD DVD will have no leverage.

Toshiba, make the deal -- now. Time's up.

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Swanni (Phillip Swann) is president and publisher of TVPredictions.com. He has been quoted in dozens of publications and broadcast outlets, including CNN, Fox News, Inside Edition, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune, The Financial Times, The Associated Press and The Hollywood Reporter. He can be reached at swann@tvpredictions.com or at 703-505-3064.

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