Commentary
12 Million HDTV Owners Could Be Screwed
Anti-copying software in new high-def DVDs could water down the picture for 60 percent of the HDTV audience.
By Phillip Swann

Washington, D.C. (February 17, 2006) -- HDTV owners, you have to read this story.

In yesterday's "Swanni Sez," the TVPredictions.com newsletter, I commented on the anti-piracy software likely to be added to the new high-def DVDs. Sony and Toshiba are scheduled to release the new high-def DVD players later this spring.

I noted that CNET's News.com had just published an article suggesting sales of the new players could be hurt because PC owners might have trouble playing the new discs due to copyright protection software. (The anti-copying software would not be compatible with analog plugs used to connect most PCs to monitors.) At the very least, the picture quality of the DVD would suffer.

I commented that it was an absurd notion that DVD players sales would be significantly hurt because few people will actually want to watch the high-def DVDs on their PCs.

News.com wrote in the February 16th article that HDTV set owners should "mostly" be unconcerned by the copyright restrictions. Here's a quote from the article:

"For people who buy standalone (HDTV) DVD players and HDTVs, this mostly won't be a concern, as the right plugs will generally already be built in."

However, Ben Keen of the UK research firm, Screen Digest, pointed out to me that early-generation HDTVs with analog inputs (plugs) could have a problem with picture quality as well.

And how many HDTV homes are we talking about?

12 million!

Long story short, it will be up to the individual studios whether to include the copying restrictions in their movies. (They're not revealing their intentions at this time.) But if they do, 12 million HDTV owners might not get true HD if they play a high-def DVD. The picture quality would be squeezed to guard against piracy. (Apparently, the picture quality would be about 25 percent of full HD resolution and just slightly better than the picture from a current DVD.)

The 12 million HDTV homes represent approximately 60 percent of the audience. Sixty percent of the current HDTV market could be short-changed.

If the studios include the anti-copying restrictions and the word gets out -- and I will do everything in my power to ensure that it does -- the new DVD could be DOA.

This issue is far from over. But I thought you would want to know that the industry is at it again -- making HDTV far more complicated than it should ever be.

Yesterday, I asked a spokeswoman for Blu-ray to comment but she passed the buck to another office, which did not return my message. But I will stay with the issue and file an update in the next few weeks.

Until then, to read a Video Business article on how the copyright restrictions might affect HDTV owners, click: Here

© TVPredictions.com

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Phillip Swann is president and publisher of TVPredictions.com. He has been quoted in dozens of publications and broadcast outlets, including CNN, Fox News, Inside Edition, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune, The Financial Times, The Associated Press and The Hollywood Reporter. He can be reached at swann@tvpredictions.com or at 703-505-3064.

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