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Toshiba Drops HD DVD: 10 Winners & Losers
Which companies will benefit from Toshiba's decision?
By
Swanni
 
Washington, D.C. (February 19, 2008) -- Toshiba's announcement today that it will exit the HD DVD business was pretty much expected ever since Warner Bros decided last month to endorse Blu-ray, its high-def disc rival.

However, the company's decision is likely to have a long-lasting impact on several companies -- and the high-def industry as a whole.

So, here is our look at the 'Winners & Losers' of HD DVD's departure -- the companies that will benefit most and least from Toshiba's announcement.

Winner
Sony

The electronics giant finally wins a format war -- two decades after its Betamax videotape format was wiped out by VHS. (Sony was the leading backer of the Blu-ray format.) Sony, which makes Blu-ray players and produces movies released on Blu-ray, stands to gain billions in manufacturing, disc and licensing revenue. The company may also see a boost in Play Station 3 sales; the game console has a Blu-ray player inside.

Loser
Toshiba

The company invested hundreds of millions in HD DVD (if not more) and came up empty. There's no pretty way to say it -- Toshiba
is the biggest loser here. To make matters worse, Toshiba says it won't even manufacture Blu-ray players; apparently it will ignore the high-def disc industry, at least for now. Talk about picking up your ball and going home.

Loser
HD DVD Owners

If there's a bigger loser than Toshiba, it's the near one million people who bought HD DVD players, some at prices into the hundreds of dollars. The studios will soon stop releasing films on HD DVD, making the boxes mere DVD 'upconverter' players (or door stops.)

Winner
Warner Bros.

When the history of the Blu-ray/HD DVD war is written, Warner will get principal credit for delivering the victory to Blu-ray. The studio's decision last month to endorse Blu-ray tipped the scales on its behalf.

Loser
Microsoft

Some might argue that Microsoft merely wanted to prolong the high-def format war so it could promote digital downloads. But the company spent considerable money to keep HD DVD going and some analysts are saying that its XBox 360 could suffer because it supports HD DVD and not Blu-ray. HD DVD's loss is also another defeat for Microsoft in the TV category (Web TV, Interactive TV, Ultimate TV, etc.)

Winner
Paramount

Toshiba (and Microsoft?) reportedly paid Paramount $150 million last August to endorse HD DVD. Now, the studio can keep the money (we presume) and start releasing films on Blu.

Winner
High-Def Owners

With one format, both Blu-ray player and disc prices are likely to fall. (Blu-ray supporters won't have to invest money on defeating HD DVD; it can concentrate on capturing new customers.) And consumers can now buy a Blu-ray player without fear of picking the wrong format.

Winner
Retailers

Likewise, CE retailers can expect more consumer interest in Blu-ray, which should lead to greater sales.

Loser
Universal

The studio was an outspoken supporter of HD DVD, but now will have to get on the Blu bandwagon. The defeat is more of a public relations setback than a monetary one, but both hurt.

Loser
The Standard DVD
While the standard-def DVD reigns supreme now, the format war's end will allow the studios to start transitioning to Blu-ray. It will be awhile before new movie releases are only available in Blu-ray, but it may be sooner than you think. Don't be surprised if some new releases get Blu-only designations as early as 2009.

Winner
HDTV Manufacturers

If Blu-ray sales increase, it should spark even greater interest in high-def sets.

Comment on this article!

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Swanni (Phillip Swann) is president and publisher of TVPredictions.com. He has been quoted in dozens of publications and broadcast outlets, including CNN, Fox News, Inside Edition, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune, The Financial Times, The Associated Press and The Hollywood Reporter. He can be reached at swann@tvpredictions.com or at 703-505-3064.


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