Swanni's TV Tech 'Hits and Misses!'

News Analysis
Swanni's TV Tech 'Hits and Misses!'
Phillip Swann predicts whether 10 new TV technology products and services will succeed or fail.
By Phillip Swann

Washington, D.C. (March 9, 2006) -- Over the last five years, I have correctly predicted that:

* Voom, the satellite TV service, would fail.
* TiVo, the DVR service, would struggle because of a lack of partnerships with cable and satellite operators.
* FCC Chairman Michael Powell would resign.
* TiVo CEO Mike Ramsay would resign.

And I have correctly predicted many other events and actions in the TV technology industry. While many people in the industry get upset at my candor and bluntness, no one can say that I don't deliver. TV Predictions is more than a name; it's a reality.

But, now, I am going to jump out on the limb again and offer my predictions for 10 new TV technology products and proposals.

Here are Swanni's TV Tech 'Hits and Misses'!'

1. Sling Media's Sling Box
The silver-colored box enables you to watch your home TV channels from a remote location, such as a laptop or PC. Available at retail for approximately $200, the Sling Box requires a Broadband connection at both ends.

The Sling Box is well designed and very convenient for frequent travelers who want to keep tabs with local broadcasts, particularly sports. However, the Broadband requirement is a big obstacle that will take some time to remove. Most viewers are loathe to make their televisions more complicated. And knowing that the extra connection will only be useful when they are on the road, most people will not find it worthwhile.

However, Sling Media has some heavy investors, such as Liberty Media and satcaster EchoStar. Perhaps it can hang in there until Broadband TV becomes commonplace.

Swanni's Odds of Success: 30 Percent

2. Apple's Video iPod
With a 2.5-inch screen, the new portable device can play downloaded videos, such as ABC's Lost and Desperate Housewives. The downloads cost $1.99 each.

However, the picture on the small screen fares poorly compared to a normal-sized TV or even a DVD-enabled laptop. It's difficult to maintain your interest with a screen so small.

Swanni's Odds of Success: 5 Percent.
(Although people will still use the device to listen to music.)

3. DIRECTV's Broadband VOD
DIRECTV later this year will launch a Video on Demand service that will enable DVR owners to download from up to 2,000 movies and TV shows via a high-speed Internet connection. For the first time, a satellite TV service will be able to compete with cable TV's growing on-demand lineup.

The VOD service will struggle early because DIRECTV will find it difficult to persuade subscribers to connect their set-tops to Broadband. However, in time, Broadband TV will be embraced by the masses. And with the deep-pocketed News Corp. as its parent, DIRECTV has the luxury of time.

Swanni's Odds of Success: 100 percent.

4. Cell Phone TV
Like Apple, cell phone makers are rapidly adding video to their handheld devices. Owners can pay monthly fees to watch news and sports clips and previews of upcoming movies and TV shows.

However, again, the small screen works against the concept. The monthly subscription fees don't help, either.

Swanni's Odds of Success: 1 percent.

5. DIRECTV's $25-30 HDTV PPV Movie
Peter Chernin, president of News Corp., the parent of DIRECTV, says his company will soon offer HDTV films on demand 60 days after their theatrical release. The cost per viewing: $25-30, says Chernin.

The News Corp. executive says HDTV viewers will gladly pay the high price because they are "desperate" for additional high-def programming.

Don't bet on it, Pete.

Swanni's Odds of Success: 0 Percent.

Phillip Swann is president and publisher of TVPredictions.com. He has been quoted in dozens of publications and broadcast outlets, including CNN, Fox News, Inside Edition, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune, The Financial Times, The Associated Press and The Hollywood Reporter. He can be reached at swann@tvpredictions.com or at 703-505-3064.

And click TVPredictions.com to read more news and features on TV technology.