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Predictions
Biggest Flop of 2005:Media Center PC
The product is supposed to bring the PC and TV together, but it's destined for the scrap heap of history.
By Phillip Swann
Editor's Note: Phillip Swann, president of TVPredictions.com, is making 40 predictions for new TV technology in 2005. A new prediction will be published every weekday at TV Predictions for the rest of 2004, except for Thanksgiving and Christmas. Click Predictions to see a list of his 2005 forecasts to date.
Washington D.C. (December 28, 2004) -- I was at a Northern Virginia shopping mall today where Microsoft and Intel had set up a kiosk to promote the new Media Center PC and other "Digital Joy" products. But after watching the scene for a few minutes, I noticed that there was something missing:
People.
Yes, there were a few freshly-scrubbed young faces behind the kiosk counter, ready to answer questions and distribute brochures. But one by one, mall shoppers strolled by, totally ignoring the exhibit. Finally, after about 10 minutes, a chic-looking young brunette came over to sit on a couch that was set up for interested consumers. However, she was not an interested consumer. She was Olive, a hair stylist at the Vidal Sassoon salon, which was located adjacent to the exhibit.
"We come over here during our breaks," Olive told me. "There's never anyone here. But the couch is comfortable. It's a good place to sit."
I asked her if she knew what the Media Center was all about. "I dunno," she said. "Some computer thing."
Olive can not only cut hair, but she can cut right to the problem.
Consumers see the Media Center PC, whether it's from Microsoft, Hewlett-Packard or Gateway, as just another personal computer -- and a more expensive one at that with prices running more than $1,000. Although the Media Center is supposed to be an entertainment device (it enables you to watch TV on your PC and transfer music and photos to your TV), the vast majority of Americans will never -- I will repeat that -- never think of the PC as an entertainment device. The PC is for work and the TV is for relaxation. End of story.
But the PC industry, led by Microsoft, seems blissfully ignorant of this basic assumption. PC-based companies continue to invest hundreds of millions of dollars on new products that are designed to converge the PC with the TV. Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates explains his company's investment in the Media Center (and Interactive TV) by saying some technologies take awhile to catch on. But, trust me, Mr. Gates, this one will have more trouble catching than the 2004 Kansas City Royals.
The Media Center PC is just the latest in a long list of convergence failures, including Microsoft's WebTV/MSN TV, WorldGate's Internet-driven Interactive TV service and Gateway's home theater PC.
So, I predict that the Media Center PC will be the biggest flop in the TV technology industry in 2005. Like my shopping mall colleagues, Americans will not give the Media Center a second look, or perhaps even a first one.
Microsoft and Intel would have been wiser to invest their money in that comfortable couch.
© TVPredictions.com
Biggest Flop of 2005:Media Center PC
The product is supposed to bring the PC and TV together, but it's destined for the scrap heap of history.
By Phillip Swann
Editor's Note: Phillip Swann, president of TVPredictions.com, is making 40 predictions for new TV technology in 2005. A new prediction will be published every weekday at TV Predictions for the rest of 2004, except for Thanksgiving and Christmas. Click Predictions to see a list of his 2005 forecasts to date.
Washington D.C. (December 28, 2004) -- I was at a Northern Virginia shopping mall today where Microsoft and Intel had set up a kiosk to promote the new Media Center PC and other "Digital Joy" products. But after watching the scene for a few minutes, I noticed that there was something missing:
People.
Yes, there were a few freshly-scrubbed young faces behind the kiosk counter, ready to answer questions and distribute brochures. But one by one, mall shoppers strolled by, totally ignoring the exhibit. Finally, after about 10 minutes, a chic-looking young brunette came over to sit on a couch that was set up for interested consumers. However, she was not an interested consumer. She was Olive, a hair stylist at the Vidal Sassoon salon, which was located adjacent to the exhibit.
"We come over here during our breaks," Olive told me. "There's never anyone here. But the couch is comfortable. It's a good place to sit."
I asked her if she knew what the Media Center was all about. "I dunno," she said. "Some computer thing."
Olive can not only cut hair, but she can cut right to the problem.
Consumers see the Media Center PC, whether it's from Microsoft, Hewlett-Packard or Gateway, as just another personal computer -- and a more expensive one at that with prices running more than $1,000. Although the Media Center is supposed to be an entertainment device (it enables you to watch TV on your PC and transfer music and photos to your TV), the vast majority of Americans will never -- I will repeat that -- never think of the PC as an entertainment device. The PC is for work and the TV is for relaxation. End of story.
But the PC industry, led by Microsoft, seems blissfully ignorant of this basic assumption. PC-based companies continue to invest hundreds of millions of dollars on new products that are designed to converge the PC with the TV. Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates explains his company's investment in the Media Center (and Interactive TV) by saying some technologies take awhile to catch on. But, trust me, Mr. Gates, this one will have more trouble catching than the 2004 Kansas City Royals.
The Media Center PC is just the latest in a long list of convergence failures, including Microsoft's WebTV/MSN TV, WorldGate's Internet-driven Interactive TV service and Gateway's home theater PC.
So, I predict that the Media Center PC will be the biggest flop in the TV technology industry in 2005. Like my shopping mall colleagues, Americans will not give the Media Center a second look, or perhaps even a first one.
Microsoft and Intel would have been wiser to invest their money in that comfortable couch.
© TVPredictions.com
Phillip Swann is president and publisher of
TVPredictions.com. He has been quoted in dozens of publications
and broadcast outlets, including CNN, Fox News, Inside Edition,
The Chicago Tribune, The Associated Press and The Hollywood
Reporter. He can be reached at
swann@tvpredictions.com
or at 703-505-3064.
And click
TVPredictions.com
to read more news and features on TV
technology.
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