Swanni's TV Tech 'Hits and Misses', Part Two

News Analysis
Swanni's TV Tech 'Hits and Misses'
Phillip Swann predicts whether 10 new TV technology products and services will succeed or fail.
By Phillip Swann

Click here to read part one

6. MovieBeam's VOD Player
MovieBeam, which is backed by Disney, Cisco and Intel, has launched a set-top that can deliver up to 100 on-demand movies to the home without the need of a Broadband connection.

The receiver, which costs around $200, is available in large retail stores. MovieBeam says some of the 100 films are available in high-def.

MovieBeam viewers will only have to pay for the movies they order. The on-demand service will use a datacasting technology to deliver 10 new movies to the set-top every week.

The company's prime target is the frequent movie watcher. However, that person likely already has a cable/satellite receiver, a DVD player, a DVR and maybe an A/V receiver and thus may hesitate to buy yet another set-top.

In addition, despite the backing of six of the seven major studios, many film buffs may find MovieBeam's lineup of 100 titles too limiting. And, finally, the HDTV audience may find the number of high-def films too small to justify the purchase. According to MovieBeam, the early lineup of HD movies will only include titles from Disney and Warner Bros.

Swanni's Odds of Success: 10 Percent

7. The HDTV DVD Player
Sony and Toshiba this year will launch new DVD set-tops that can play HDTV movies. The receivers, called Blu-ray and HD-DVD respectively, will not be compatible, meaning consumers will fear another Betamax vs. VHS fiasco.

In addition, the studios are threatening to add anti-copying software that would dilute the picture for millions of high-def owners.

In short, the new DVD industry is doing everything it can to sabotage itself before the launch. However, in time, the industry will work out the kinks and the new DVD player will find its audience. High-def owners will want to watch their DVDs in high-def. It's as simple as that.

Swanni's Odds of Success: 100 Percent.

8. Telco TV
AT&T and Verizon are launching new TV services to compete with the cable and satellite TV operators. They hope to exploit a growing dissatisfaction with the established services over everything from high subscription prices to a lack of high-def programming.

However, the telcos are facing an uphill fight. The cable and satellite operators have roughly 85 percent of the TV market. It could take years -- and billions of dollars -- to peel away a significant portion of that audience. Of course, the telcos have the money, but will their shareholders sit still while they spend it?

Swanni's Odds of Success: 35 percent.

9. Online Video
Networks such as CBS and ABC are now offering their primetime shows online either for free or a small fee. The TV industry is hoping that online video will catch on with office workers and home PC users.

However, watching a long-form show or movie on a PC screen is simply not as comfortable as watching it on a big TV while sitting on a comfy couch. Consequently, the concept will stall until it's easier to download those shows directly to the TV itself.

Swanni's Odds of Success: 20 percent for video on the PC; 100 percent for online video on the TV.

10. The HDTV Camcorder
Camcorders that record in High-Definition have been on the market for a few years now. But prices, which have ranged up to $3,000, have been out of reach for most consumers.

However, Sanyo this month is expected to launch a $799 HDTV camcorder and it's likely other companies will follow suit before year's end. The low-cost HDTV camcorder will become a big hit, perhaps as early as this holiday season.

Swanni's Odds of Success: 100 Percent.

Phillip Swann is president and publisher of TVPredictions.com. He has been quoted in dozens of publications and broadcast outlets, including CNN, Fox News, Inside Edition, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune, The Financial Times, The Associated Press and The Hollywood Reporter. He can be reached at swann@tvpredictions.com or at 703-505-3064.

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