31. 3D TV Makers
Will Slash Prices (Again); Add More Bundles
The 3D TV industry is backed into a corner. Despite the
industry's enormous investment in 3D sets, movie theaters and
related equipment, consumers have voted with their dollars that
they are not that interested in the new technology.
Consequently, 3D TV makers in 2012 will have to all but give the
sets away; prices will be slashed by 25-30 percent or more; 2-4,
free 3D goggles -- and a free 3D Blu-ray player -- will be
packaged as a bundle with 3D sets. (Some manufacturers are
already doing this, but there will be more.) The extra
inducements will help sales somewhat, but not enough to generate
any momentum for the category. Let's face it, 3D = 3DOA. It's
just a matter of time before the industry announces the time of
death.
In a side note, some 3D makers will also drop the 3D talk from
their marketing campaigns, choosing instead to focus on the
set's great picture and/or Smart TV capability. If anyone's
asking me, this is the smart way to go. Take 3D out of the
discussion and more consumers will be interested in buying new
sets.
32. Sales of Net TV
Video Players Will Boom
One of biggest stories of 2011 was the growing proliferation of
the Net TV player (Blu-ray, Roku, Apple TV, etc.). The unit
streams videos from the Net directly to your TV, removing the
need to make that trip to your neighborhood video store.
While the media has over-hyped Net TV sales, they did improve
this year and I predict they will do even better in 2012. The
reason: Many consumers are interested in watching streaming
services such as Netflix on their TVs, but until now, they have
been intimidated by the technical requirements to do so. In
2012, however, I think more people will make a special effort to
get their TVs connected to the Net, whether it's via a Net TV
player or a Net-enabled TV. (This is not to say that millions
and millions of people will do it; contrary to what Silicon
Valley thinks, this is not a tech-savvy nation. People are still
intimidated by technology.) But the added convenience (and
entertainment) provided by Net TV players will compel more
people to check it out.
33. Sales of Blu-ray Players Will Boom, Too
Recent studies show that more than 30 million U.S. homes now
have at least one Blu-ray player. HDTV owners have come to
realize that the Blu-ray high-def disc offers the best picture
on the market, bar none. Plus, consumers are also attracted to
Blu-ray players that offer video and music streaming from
services such as Netflix, Vudu and Pandora. This additional
feature will solidify the Blu-ray player as the logical
replacement to the DVD player in America.
Will the Blu-ray player replace the DVD player in 2012? Not
quite. But in 2013, there's a good chance that Blu-ray players
will be in more homes than DVD players. And considering that DVD
players were in roughly 90 percent of U.S. homes just a few
years ago, that would be a tremendous accomplishment.
34.
Blu-ray Disc Prices to Fall 20 Percent Or More
Streaming is still a few years away from reaching the masses;
for most Americans, connecting a Net-enabled device or 'Smart
TV' to a home network is still too complicated. And companies
that sell the devices seem oddly uninterested in educating the
masses on how to make those connections.
But that said, streaming will increase in 2012, which will force
the studios to lower prices on Blu-ray discs by roughly 20
percent or so. The studios don't want streamers saying, "Hmm, I
can order this movie for $4.99 on my Net TV set-top -- or even
get it free with my monthly Netflix plan -- or I can pay $29.99
to buy the Blu-ray disc. Wonder what I will do?"
The studios will have to lower Blu-ray prices to keep streamers
interested in hard media.
35.
Britney Spears Gets a TV Show
We're not talking about a remake of the 2005 UPN reality
show, Britney & Kevin, which
chronicled the crazy couple's decadent descent. No, I
predict that some network executive will jump out of bed in 2012
and say, 'Hey, Britney Spears would make a great sitcom star!"
And, you know what, he/she will be right. The pop tart's musical
talents may be fading (okay, they're gone), but she still
has an intriguing persona and, if you check out her guest
spins on such sitcoms as How I Met Your
Mother, she can be funny. Think of Brit as
the female Charlie Sheen -- before the Tiger Blood, that is.
36.
Ashton Kutcher Slapped With Paternity Suits (At Least Two!)
Sans Demi, The Two and a Half Men
star is now running around like he's
two and a half men. It's just a matter of time before Kutcher
puts his business in the wrong place at the wrong time.
37.
New Cast Members at Saturday Night Live
By next fall, I predict you'll see a handful of new cast members
-- but not because the show has been bad; it's because it's been
good! SNL standouts Kristen Wiig and Jason Sudekis are in high
demand in Hollywood and will likely graduate from the show to do
movies full-time. But don't worry; this should just open up more
opportunities for the under-appreciated Jay Pharoah and Fred
Armisen.
38.
NBC Finally Gets a 'Smash' Hit
The peacock network has been struggling for years; well, let's
admit it, ever since Seinfeld
closed up shop. Thanks in part to lousy leadership, (that's you,
ex-CEO Jeff Zucker), NBC has produced one ratings bust after
another, particularly with scripted programs. But I predict the
network will finally get a Top 10 scripted show starting
February 6 when it debuts Smash,
a drama about a fictional Broadway production of a play about
Marilyn Monroe. The show is getting great buzz and the cast
features an intriguing mix:
Katharine McPhee, Debra Messing
and Anjelica Huston. I'm not saying Smash will turn NBC
around, but after Chuck, Playboy Club, etc. you have to
start somewhere.
39. The Studios
Bring Back High-Priced Video on Demand
Last spring, DIRECTV and the studios teamed to offer VOD movies
for $30 each. That's right. $30. The studios and the satcaster
(The Studios & the Satcaster; sounds like the title of a bad
movie, perhaps one they would charge $30 for!) thought that
people would actually pay the $30 because the movies would be
available before they were released on Blu-ray and DVD.
Needless to say, the project was a major disaster, so
disastrous, in fact, that DIRECTV stopped promoting the $30
service about two months after its debut.
But there's nothing harder than a studio executive's head so you
can guarantee that high-priced VOD will make a comeback in 2012.
Perhaps they will lower the price a bit this time, though; nah,
perhaps not.
40. New Trend: Video Phone Calls On Your
TV Comcast and other cable operators
will enable their subscribers in 2012 to communicate with family
and friends though HD video phone calls on their HDTVs. The video phone call is certainly
nothing new; in fact, the idea has been floating around for
decades. (The 1964 World's Fair in New York featured a video
phone exhibit.)
However, until recently, consumers have been uninterested in
making video phone calls due to privacy concerns. After all, who
wants a friend or even a family member to see how you look
sitting around the house?
But today's heightened sense of social media tools might make
the video call an idea whose time has finally come. Apple's
'Face Time' video chat feature on the iPhone 4 has been a hit
and Skype has already enjoyed some success with its Net-based
service.
Plus, today's technology makes the video phone call a more
pleasurable experience. In high-def, many people might enjoy
chatting on their TVs with their friends -- even if they are
wearing that dingy, old t-shirt that dates back, well, to the
1964 World's Fair.
