Part Two: 17 HDTV Predictions For 2007

News Analysis
Part Two: HDTV: 17 Predictions For 2007
The Great 'Swanni" gazes into his crystal ball and reveals the future.
By Phillip Swann

Washington, D.C. (December 25, 2006) -- Click Predictions to see Part One.

Swanni's 2007 HDTV Predictions:
11-17

11. There Will Be An Explosion of Local Stations Switching to HD News
There are now only about 25-30 stations that are broadcasting their local news programs in high-def. But that number will rise to several dozen in 2007.

12. New HD-Dedicated Channels Will Launch in 2007
Until now, most high-def channels have been simulcasts of the analog network, such as HBO HD and the high-def feeds of the broadcast networks. The exceptions: HDNet and INHD, both of which do not have analog channels. However, with high-def sales rising fast, look for more companies to launch channels that are specifically created for the high-def audience.

13. Nielsen Will Begin to Measure HD Viewing
For the first time this year, Nielsen Media Research began measuring the viewing choices of Digital Video Recorder owners. Look for Nielsen to launch a similar service for high-def homes in 2007.

14. There Will Be a Boom in Commercials Produced in HDTV
Advertisers have been reluctant to spend the time and money on producing their commercials in high-def. However, in 2007, the high-def audience will likely grow to well over 20 million. (Homes with high-def tuners.) With that number -- and with Nielsen measuring high-def viewing -- it will be worth the investment to produce more ads in HD.

NBC exec Jeff Zucker.

15. NBC Will Rethink On HDTV 'Retreat'
NBC Universal CEO Jeff Zucker said this year that the network will cut back its primetime HD programming in the Fall of 2007, choosing instead to air more non-HD fare such as reality and game shows. Look for NBC to rethink that decision and either go back to more scripted programming or produce some of those reality/game shows in HD. The HD audience is getting too big to ignore.

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16. Sub-$500 HDTV Camcorders Will Emerge
Right now, the cheapest high-def camcorder on the market is a $799 Sanyo. However, with high-def sets in more than 30 million homes, an increased demand for HD camcorders will lead to more production and a sharp decline in prices.

17. HDTV Pricing Will Be Tiered
Most cable and satellite operators now offer their entire HD lineup for one monthly fee. But that's easy to do when you only offer 10 or 15 channels. When the TV providers expand the high-def lineups to 25-50 channels, they will begin separating them in different pricing tiers. For example, one HD package might include 10 channels and cost $10 a month; a second might include 25 channels and cost $20 a month; and so on.

Click TVPredictions.com to see today's Swanni Sez.

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Phillip Swann is president and publisher of TVPredictions.com. He has been quoted in dozens of publications and broadcast outlets, including CNN, Fox News, Inside Edition, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune, The Financial Times, The Associated Press and The Hollywood Reporter. He can be reached at swann@tvpredictions.com or at 703-505-3064.

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