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The reason: The Federal Communications Commission would never approve the deal on grounds that it would be anti-competitive. Citigroup analyst Jason Bazinet says that the deal would not go through in the current administration and perhaps not even in a Republican one if GOP challenger Mitt Romney wins in November.
The consensus has been that any satellite merger would have to wait until at least next year, assuming Romney defeated President Obama. DIRECTV CEO Mike White recently hinted that a merger might be possible if the Democrats lose in November.
But Bazinet says the chances of the deal happening in the current administration is "slim" and it would also face tough going under a GOP administration, according to Forbes.
Bazinet said in a research note to clients that investors expect Dish to be bought eventually by DIRECTV or AT&T. The latter would be most interested in acquiring Dish's spectrum holdings. But the analyst says the feds will be under too much pressure to ensure that consumers get a wide variety of video choices, which would help keep prices down.
Bazinet said the chances of AT&T buying Dish is just 10 percent.
Ironically, DIRECTV and Dish attempted to merge more than a decade ago, but the FCC rejected the proposal on the same 'anti-competitive' grounds. Today, with Internet and mobile video services popping up everywhere, many observers believe that a satellite merger would not dramatically reduce competition.
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