Washington, D.C. (December 28, 2008) --
Since the launch of the high-def disc in the spring of 2006, I have issued several predictions on how quickly it would grow and which format would be ultimately successful. I am happy to report that nearly all of my forecasts have come true.
For instance, I first said in October 2006 that the Sony-backed Blu-ray would defeat the Toshiba-supported HD DVD format. (Last February, Toshiba pulled the plug on HS DVD, ceding victory to Blu-ray.) And in December 2007, I predicted that Warner Bros. would surprise the industry by supporting Blu-ray over HD DVD in early 2008. (The studio made my prediction come true at the January 2008 Consumer Electronics Show.)
So, I thought you would find it interesting to hear my predictions for Blu-ray in 2009. And here's number three:
New Blu-ray Movies Will Average $20
Some new Blu-ray releases are priced at more than $30 per unit, nearly twice the price of the companion standard-def DVD. That's far too expensive for the average consumer -- and the studios know it. Internet message boards are overflowing with complaints from high-def enthusiasts.
However, despite the hue and cry, the studios have been waiting for more people to get Blu-ray players before they significantly cut prices. It's basic economics. With volume comes lower prices. And with Blu-ray players starting for under $100 by the fall of 2009 (according to my forecast), that will happen in 2009. Millions of consumers will buy Blu-ray players next year, giving the industry a significant penetration into American homes.
More Predictions Coming!
Until then, also see:
Swanni Predicts: Blu-ray In 2009
Swanni Predicts: NBC's Ratings Keep Falling Due to HD
Swanni Predicts: CBS to Promote Julie Chen At All Costs
Swanni Predicts: Home 3-D Fails In 2009
Comment on this article!
For instance, I first said in October 2006 that the Sony-backed Blu-ray would defeat the Toshiba-supported HD DVD format. (Last February, Toshiba pulled the plug on HS DVD, ceding victory to Blu-ray.) And in December 2007, I predicted that Warner Bros. would surprise the industry by supporting Blu-ray over HD DVD in early 2008. (The studio made my prediction come true at the January 2008 Consumer Electronics Show.)
So, I thought you would find it interesting to hear my predictions for Blu-ray in 2009. And here's number three:
New Blu-ray Movies Will Average $20
Some new Blu-ray releases are priced at more than $30 per unit, nearly twice the price of the companion standard-def DVD. That's far too expensive for the average consumer -- and the studios know it. Internet message boards are overflowing with complaints from high-def enthusiasts.
However, despite the hue and cry, the studios have been waiting for more people to get Blu-ray players before they significantly cut prices. It's basic economics. With volume comes lower prices. And with Blu-ray players starting for under $100 by the fall of 2009 (according to my forecast), that will happen in 2009. Millions of consumers will buy Blu-ray players next year, giving the industry a significant penetration into American homes.
More Predictions Coming!
Until then, also see:
Swanni Predicts: Blu-ray In 2009
Swanni Predicts: NBC's Ratings Keep Falling Due to HD
Swanni Predicts: CBS to Promote Julie Chen At All Costs
Swanni Predicts: Home 3-D Fails In 2009
Comment on this article!
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Phillip Swann is
president and publisher of TVPredictions.com. He has been quoted in
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News, Inside Edition, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The
Chicago Tribune, The Financial Times, The Associated Press and The
Hollywood Reporter. He can be reached at swann@tvpredictions.com
or at 703-505-3064.
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