Washington, D.C. (December 23, 2008) -- On February 17, 2009, all full-powered local TV stations will switch from analog to digital signals. Although the changeover has been publicized for months, studies have indicated that as many as three million Americans will not come along for the ride.
That's right. Instead of buying a digital converter box, a Digital TV or subscribing to a pay TV service, many Americans who now get local TV signals via off-air antennas will simply shrug their shoulders and stop watching. Or, perhaps, they will start watching more DVDs.
Consequently, I predict that February's switch will have a devastating impact on the ratings of local TV stations and the broadcast networks (CBS, ABC, Fox, CW, NBC and MyNetwork TV) -- and the timing could hardly be worse.
The locals and their network affiliates have been losing ratings steadily for years now, causing advertisers to get increasingly anxious. Add three million more to the declining numbers and it's not hard to envision some nasty economic scenarios, particularly in a global recession.
But the real problem is that we're not just talking about three million people who may stop watching TV; it's the millions more who will actually buy digital converters, but will have difficulty seeing the new digital signals.
Unlike analog, digital signals are more difficult to capture, particularly if you live near mountains, tall buildings or a few dozen miles away from the station's transmitter. Many off-air antenna viewers will suddenly find that they can get two local stations perfectly, but the other two are blocked due to interference. Some people may not be able to tune in anything.
So I predict that the average local TV station will lose between 5-7 percent of the audience after the February switchover. The networks will see similar declines in various degrees.
That's bad news for high-def viewers. With execs like NBC CEO Jeff Zucker already looking to cut expenses to the bone, the networks might decide to cut back on HD which is more costly to produce.
Perhaps in time, the TV industry can persuade the three million holdouts to buy converter boxes -- and local stations can use new technologies to improve the strength of digital signals. But until that happens, don't be surprised if the local stations -- and the networks -- take a page from Detroit and start asking Congress for relief.
More Predictions Next Week!
Until then, also see:
Swanni Predicts: Blu-ray In 2009
Swanni Predicts: NBC's Ratings Keep Falling Due to HD
Swanni Predicts: CBS to Promote Julie Chen At All Costs
Swanni Predicts: Home 3-D Fails In 2009
Comment on this article!
That's right. Instead of buying a digital converter box, a Digital TV or subscribing to a pay TV service, many Americans who now get local TV signals via off-air antennas will simply shrug their shoulders and stop watching. Or, perhaps, they will start watching more DVDs.
Consequently, I predict that February's switch will have a devastating impact on the ratings of local TV stations and the broadcast networks (CBS, ABC, Fox, CW, NBC and MyNetwork TV) -- and the timing could hardly be worse.
The locals and their network affiliates have been losing ratings steadily for years now, causing advertisers to get increasingly anxious. Add three million more to the declining numbers and it's not hard to envision some nasty economic scenarios, particularly in a global recession.
But the real problem is that we're not just talking about three million people who may stop watching TV; it's the millions more who will actually buy digital converters, but will have difficulty seeing the new digital signals.
Unlike analog, digital signals are more difficult to capture, particularly if you live near mountains, tall buildings or a few dozen miles away from the station's transmitter. Many off-air antenna viewers will suddenly find that they can get two local stations perfectly, but the other two are blocked due to interference. Some people may not be able to tune in anything.
So I predict that the average local TV station will lose between 5-7 percent of the audience after the February switchover. The networks will see similar declines in various degrees.
That's bad news for high-def viewers. With execs like NBC CEO Jeff Zucker already looking to cut expenses to the bone, the networks might decide to cut back on HD which is more costly to produce.
Perhaps in time, the TV industry can persuade the three million holdouts to buy converter boxes -- and local stations can use new technologies to improve the strength of digital signals. But until that happens, don't be surprised if the local stations -- and the networks -- take a page from Detroit and start asking Congress for relief.
More Predictions Next Week!
Until then, also see:
Swanni Predicts: Blu-ray In 2009
Swanni Predicts: NBC's Ratings Keep Falling Due to HD
Swanni Predicts: CBS to Promote Julie Chen At All Costs
Swanni Predicts: Home 3-D Fails In 2009
Comment on this article!
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