Washington, D.C. (December 16, 2008) -- Since the launch of the high-def disc in the spring of 2006, I have issued several predictions on how quickly it would grow and which format would be ultimately successful. I am happy to report that nearly all of my forecasts have come true.
For instance, I first said in October 2006 that the Sony-backed Blu-ray would defeat the Toshiba-supported HD DVD format. (Last February, Toshiba pulled the plug on HS DVD, ceding victory to Blu-ray.) And in December 2007, I predicted that Warner Bros. would surprise the industry by supporting Blu-ray over HD DVD in early 2008. (The studio made my prediction come true at the January 2008 Consumer Electronics Show.)
So, I thought you would find it interesting to hear my four predictions for Blu-ray in 2009. And here they are:
Blu-ray Players For $99
I predicted correctly last year that Blu-ray player prices would fall under the $200 level during the 2008 holidays. But I think even lower prices are coming next year. Look for a $99 Blu-ray player as early as the Fall of 2009.
8-10 Million Standalone Blu-ray Players Sold
By most estimates, there will be roughly three million standalone Blu-ray players sold in 2008. ( A standalone player is one that just plays Blu-ray and standard-def DVDs, as opposed to a PlayStation 3, which is a gaming console and Blu-ray player.) But thanks to lower prices and positive word of mouth, Blu-ray player sales will really start to boom next year. Combining the PS3 and standalone Blu-ray players, more than 25 million U.S. homes will have Blu-ray capability by the end of 2009.
New Blu-ray Movies Will Average $20
Some new Blu-ray releases are priced at more than $30 per unit, nearly twice the price of the companion standard-def DVD. That's far too expensive for the average consumer -- and the studios know it. However, they are waiting for more people to get Blu-ray players before they significantly cut prices. It's basic economics. With volume comes lower prices. That will happen in 2009.
Toshiba Introduces a Blu-ray Player
Toshiba, the biggest booster of the HD DVD format, has stubbornly resisted calls to release its own Blu-ray player now that the format war is over. The company may be stubborn, but it's not dumb. With Blu-ray getting closer to reaching a mass audience, Toshiba will finally give in and join the party.
Also see:
Swanni Predicts: NBC's Ratings Keep Falling Due to HD
Swanni Predicts: CBS to Promote Julie Chen At All Costs
Swanni Predicts: Home 3-D Fails In 2009
For instance, I first said in October 2006 that the Sony-backed Blu-ray would defeat the Toshiba-supported HD DVD format. (Last February, Toshiba pulled the plug on HS DVD, ceding victory to Blu-ray.) And in December 2007, I predicted that Warner Bros. would surprise the industry by supporting Blu-ray over HD DVD in early 2008. (The studio made my prediction come true at the January 2008 Consumer Electronics Show.)
So, I thought you would find it interesting to hear my four predictions for Blu-ray in 2009. And here they are:
Blu-ray Players For $99
I predicted correctly last year that Blu-ray player prices would fall under the $200 level during the 2008 holidays. But I think even lower prices are coming next year. Look for a $99 Blu-ray player as early as the Fall of 2009.
8-10 Million Standalone Blu-ray Players Sold
By most estimates, there will be roughly three million standalone Blu-ray players sold in 2008. ( A standalone player is one that just plays Blu-ray and standard-def DVDs, as opposed to a PlayStation 3, which is a gaming console and Blu-ray player.) But thanks to lower prices and positive word of mouth, Blu-ray player sales will really start to boom next year. Combining the PS3 and standalone Blu-ray players, more than 25 million U.S. homes will have Blu-ray capability by the end of 2009.
New Blu-ray Movies Will Average $20
Some new Blu-ray releases are priced at more than $30 per unit, nearly twice the price of the companion standard-def DVD. That's far too expensive for the average consumer -- and the studios know it. However, they are waiting for more people to get Blu-ray players before they significantly cut prices. It's basic economics. With volume comes lower prices. That will happen in 2009.
Toshiba Introduces a Blu-ray Player
Toshiba, the biggest booster of the HD DVD format, has stubbornly resisted calls to release its own Blu-ray player now that the format war is over. The company may be stubborn, but it's not dumb. With Blu-ray getting closer to reaching a mass audience, Toshiba will finally give in and join the party.
Also see:
Swanni Predicts: NBC's Ratings Keep Falling Due to HD
Swanni Predicts: CBS to Promote Julie Chen At All Costs
Swanni Predicts: Home 3-D Fails In 2009
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Phillip Swann is
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News, Inside Edition, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The
Chicago Tribune, The Financial Times, The Associated Press and The
Hollywood Reporter. He can be reached at swann@tvpredictions.com
or at 703-505-3064.
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