Swanni's 10 HDTV Predictions For 2008!
Set prices will stabilize; the Digital TV transition will face more obstacles; and the HD 'arms race' between cable and satellite will increase.
By Allison Moore
HD Diva
Below are Swanni's 10 predictions for high-def for the coming year -- and excerpts from his prepared remarks at the Iowa conference.
To see his 2007 predictions for HDTV, click: 2007.
1. Digital TV Becomes a Political Football
"As we get closer to the February 2009 transition date, look for Democrats to escalate their charges that the Republican administration is not doing enough to educate Americans on what they need to do to keep watching TV when the nation switches from analog to digital.
"Senior citizens and low-income Americans -- who traditionally vote Democratic -- are most likely to be at risk here. Consequently, the Democrats will use the upcoming Digital TV transition as a weapon in the 2008 congressional elections against their Republican opponents. They will say the GOP could be responsible for our TVs going dark in 2009."
2. Average HDTV Prices Will Stabilize
"After nearly two years of dropping prices, the average HDTV set price will stay fairly steady in 2008. The reason: TV makers will introduce more 1080p high-def sets that carry higher price tags -- and some retailers will start removing 720p and 1080i sets off their shelves."
3. Low-Cost Digital TVs Will See Big Sales Boost
"With fewer discount HDTVs on retailer shelves in 2008, consumers will seek out low-cost Digital TVs that will enable them to keep watching television when the transition occurs in February 2009.
"The low-cost Digital TV, which will run around $300, won't display signals in true HD. But many consumers won't know the difference, they are so confused about what's high-def and what's not. They will just buy any TV that the retailer says will allow them to keep watching in 2009."
4. Digital TV Converter Sales Will Struggle
"Consumers won't see the urgency in buying a converter box, which will allow old analog TVs to display digital signals when the 2009 transition occurs. Plus, priced at around $70, retailers will be reluctant to promote the converter box because it will generate little profit."
5. HDTV 'Arms Race' Between Cable & Satellite Will Escalate
"By the end of 2007, DIRECTV will have around 100 HD channels, which will put enormous pressure on EchoStar, cable and the telco TV services to expand their high-def lineups in 2008. They will spend ungodly amounts of money to outdo each other during the year. With more Americans buying high-def sets, they will have no choice."
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Swanni (Phillip Swann) is
president and publisher of TVPredictions.com. He has been quoted in
dozens of publications and broadcast outlets, including CNN, Fox
News, Inside Edition, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The
Chicago Tribune, The Financial Times, The Associated Press and The
Hollywood Reporter. He can be reached at
swann@tvpredictions.com
or at 703-505-3064.
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