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4. Your TV Provider Will Lose Channels (Often)
The current dust-up between Time Warner and Fox is just the
beginning. In 2010, the broadcast networks and cable channels
will ask cable and satellite operators for even more money to
carry their signals. And the TV providers will say no, fearful
of spending too much in a so-so economy.
Consequently, the TV providers will be forced to drop the
channels from their lineups while the negotiations continue. In
some cases, some popular channels will be unavailable on your
local cable or satellite service for months.
5. DIRECTV Will Offer Less Than 200 HD Channels
The satcaster has just launched a new satellite that will
double its capacity to offer high-def channels. DIRECTV, which
now claims it offers 130 HD channels (including PPV), says it
will have the capacity to provide 200 HD channels.
But I predict that DIRECTV will fall far short of the 200 HD
channel count in 2010, even when you factor in PPV channels. I
also predict that DIRECTV will only add about 10-15 high-def
cable networks next year.
Why?
DIRECTV has to pay the programmers extra money to carry their
high-def signals, something that it's loathe to do in a stagnant
economy. (This is why DIRECTV has been battling with the Versus
sports channel for the last three months; it doesn't want to pay
Versus more money to carry its SD and HD signals.)
So instead of adding real channels, DIRECTV will keep costs down
-- and appearances up -- by adding more PPV HD channels and
other services such as 3-D HD broadcasts.
The satcaster will try to fool the public into believing that
it's offering a lot more HD when actually it will largely just
inflate its HD channel count with more PPV.
6. 10 Million Blu-ray Players Will Be Sold
Last year, I predicted that 8-10
million new standalone Blu-ray players would be sold in 2009 --
and people said I was nuts. (Particularly tech analysts who
generally are terrible at predicting whether new products will
be accepted by the general public.)
But now it looks like I was right, according to recent sales
reports which say around 7-8 million standalone players will be
sold by year's end.
I predict that 2010 will be another great year for Blu-ray, with
10 million new players sold. This will put the high-def disc
right in the mainstream.
7. Online HD Movies Will Continue to
Struggle
Just about every major entertainment company is pushing some
version of an online movie and/or TV service via a TV set-top or
a PC. Many executives say HD movie downloads will soon replace
the hard media of Blu-ray.
Nonsense, I say.
While the HD video quality of the movie downloads has improved
greatly over the last few years, the concept of connecting your
home Broadband service to a TV set-top box is still foreign to
most Americans. And even fewer people want to watch high-def
online movies on a small-screen PC.
And, finally, while the HD video quality of movie downloads is
getting better, it's still not up to the standards of Blu-ray.
Click TVPredictions.com to see today's Swanni Sez.
© TVPredictions.com
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Phillip Swann is president and publisher of TVPredictions.com. He has been quoted in dozens of publications and broadcast outlets, including CNN, Fox News, Inside Edition, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Chicago Tribune, The Financial Times, The Associated Press and The Hollywood Reporter. He can be reached at swann@tvpredictions.com
or at 703-505-3064.
Click TVPredictions.com to read more news and features on TV technology.