Washington, D.C. (December 15, 2008) -- Editor's note: Over the next few weeks, Swanni will make several predictions for HDTV in 2009. Here is his first prediction.
If you listened to studio executives, and some Wall Street and tech analysts, you would think that millions of Americans will soon don goggles and start watching 3-D HD movies at homes.
Well, think again.
3-D technology is the latest buzz in the movie theater industry with studios releasing new movies such as the animated Aliens and Monsters (March release) in the format. In addition, the National Football League and the National Basketball Association are experimenting with displaying games in 3-D HD movie theaters in some markets.
But while impressive in movie theaters, 3-D HD is not ready for primetime in home theaters -- and it may not be for years to come. Americans are simply not ready -- nor inclined -- to wear special glasses while watching their favorite films at home. And new HDTVs that do not require the goggles will be hampered by conflicting industry standards that will make 3-D discs incompatible with certain sets.
There are now a handful of Blu-ray releases available in 3-D (Journey to the Center of the Earth, a Hannah Montana concert, to name two), but they can be difficult to watch due to inferior color displays and other technical glitches. Watching a 3-D Blu-ray movie is a very uncomfortable experience, despite the occasional impressive effect, and will simply lead to negative word of mouth about the technology.
So, I predict that 3-D HD will be a big bust for the home video industry in 2009. The technology will start to generate some interest in movie theaters, but even there, the analysts are overestimating its potential impact. For years to come, and perhaps forever, 3-D will appeal only to a niche audience.
Most viewers will prefer to watch a movie without the special effects -- whether it's in the theater or at home.
If you listened to studio executives, and some Wall Street and tech analysts, you would think that millions of Americans will soon don goggles and start watching 3-D HD movies at homes.
Well, think again.
3-D technology is the latest buzz in the movie theater industry with studios releasing new movies such as the animated Aliens and Monsters (March release) in the format. In addition, the National Football League and the National Basketball Association are experimenting with displaying games in 3-D HD movie theaters in some markets.
But while impressive in movie theaters, 3-D HD is not ready for primetime in home theaters -- and it may not be for years to come. Americans are simply not ready -- nor inclined -- to wear special glasses while watching their favorite films at home. And new HDTVs that do not require the goggles will be hampered by conflicting industry standards that will make 3-D discs incompatible with certain sets.
There are now a handful of Blu-ray releases available in 3-D (Journey to the Center of the Earth, a Hannah Montana concert, to name two), but they can be difficult to watch due to inferior color displays and other technical glitches. Watching a 3-D Blu-ray movie is a very uncomfortable experience, despite the occasional impressive effect, and will simply lead to negative word of mouth about the technology.
So, I predict that 3-D HD will be a big bust for the home video industry in 2009. The technology will start to generate some interest in movie theaters, but even there, the analysts are overestimating its potential impact. For years to come, and perhaps forever, 3-D will appeal only to a niche audience.
Most viewers will prefer to watch a movie without the special effects -- whether it's in the theater or at home.
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Phillip Swann is
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News, Inside Edition, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The
Chicago Tribune, The Financial Times, The Associated Press and The
Hollywood Reporter. He can be reached at swann@tvpredictions.com
or at 703-505-3064.
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