Despite this site's confident-sounding name, it's not easy to predict something. Over the years, I have compiled what many people say is a strong track record of success. However, I have been wrong -- and I will be wrong again.
But unlike some analysts, I will always own up to my failings as well as my successes. So, that said, let's look back at my 2005 Predictions and give them a grade.
Grade: A+
"FCC Chairman Michael Powell will resign."
I was right -- and just about everyone else was wrong. In fact, a few weeks before Powell resigned, several publications reported that the agency chief was likely to stay on for at least a few years more. However, I believed that Powell, whose FCC tenure was highlighted by a series of misjudgments, would succumb to political pressure and exit. He did.
"Voom will meet its doom."
I had this one the very week that the satellite TV service launched. I said that there wasn't room for a third player in the satellite business. My prediction came true in early 2005 when parent Cablevision pulled the plug on the Voom dish service (although Voom is now operating as a programming producer.)
"TiVo's CEO will resign."
Again, I was right and everyone was wrong. I predicted that TiVo CEO Mike Ramsay would step aside due to a growing lack of confidence from the company's board of directors. in early 2005, one of those directors (Tom Rogers) replaced Ramsay, who officially resigned.
"Disney will halt service on its Moviebeam Video on Demand service."
I was on the money. Disney announced last spring that it was putting the VOD set-top on hold indefinitely. The company says it's looking for investors.
"The industry will offer free DVRs in 2005"
Correct! With a rebate, you can now get a DIRECTV DVR for free.
Grade: A
"Cable DVRs will have a big year."
No doubt about it. Cable operators are rolling out new DVR services at a rapid rate, leaving TiVo scrambling for new subscribers.
"Cable TV will launch a HDTV advertising blitz."
Right again. Knowing that DIRECTV would soon offer local HDTV channels (now available in 10 markets), the cable operators wanted to make sure new high-def owners signed up with them.
"Congress won't require cable 'a la carte' programming."
There has been a lot of talk about forcing cable operators to allow subscribers to order channels individually rather than in programming packages. But, as of now, it's just talk for the voters.
"It will be a big year for flat-panel TVs."
Sales of flat-screen sets have exceeded most industry estimates.
"Congress will pass a new Digital TV deadline."
The House and Senate have both passed legislation that would extend the U.S. Digital TV transition until either December 2008 or April 2009. Lawmakers are expected to reconcile the differences soon in a conference committee. (Update: The House passed legislation on December 19 to set the Digital TV deadline at February 17, 2009; the Senate is expected to follow suit later in the week.)
"Biggest Flop of 2005: The Media Center PC"
Some might argue, but sales of the convergence PC has disappointed even its makers.
"Biggest Hit of 2005: The Digital Video Recorder"
The DVR, which allows viewers to skip ads and time shift their viewing schedules, is arguably having more impact on the TV industry than any other device. And, DVR subs continue to climb thanks to cable's aggressive marketing efforts.
Grade: B
"TiVo subs to drop in the second half of 2005."
This one is still uncertain, but TiVo announced last month that its fourth quarter revenue loss would be greater than expected. Why? Longtime partner DIRECTV last October decided to stop marketing TiVo. The decision will curb TiVo's growth indefinitely, as predicted here last year.
"TiVo: More Ads; Higher Fees."
Concerned about falling sub growth, TiVo launched several innovative advertising features in 2005, as predicted. The TiVo owner may have bought his DVR thinking he would avoid ads, but he may wind up seeing more than he ever realized.
TiVo has kept monthly subscriptions in check, however. For now, that is.
"There'll be fighting over HDTV formats."
Some networks are broadcasting in the 1080i format while others are going for 720p. And we're starting to see the networks claiming that one is better than the other.
"Biggest Loser of 2005: Cablevision"
There are many candidates for this title, but Cablevision's decision to spend more than $1 billion on the ill-fated Voom satellite service continues to haunt the company.
"Biggest Winner of 2005: Comcast"
Comcast, which has more than 21 million subscribers, seems to get stronger every day, expanding its Video on Demand lineup and crafting new partnerships in Hollywood.
How did Swanni mess up in 2005?
Click Part Two to see which of his predictions get failing grades.
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Phillip Swann is president and
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